Russian forces are likely to collapse the Ukrainian pocket around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast, but the impact depends on how Ukraine manages its withdrawal, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 12 November. ISW noted Russia had already denied Ukraine use of Pokrovsk as a logistics hub by July 2025. Meanwhile, Kremlin-linked milbloggers are prematurely declaring Pokrovsk’s fall, though ISW confirms Russian control over only 46% of the city.

Russian troops push into Pokrovsk as Ukraine maintains defense and logistics

ISW says Russian forces are advancing around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, supported by motorized assaults and glide bomb strikes. On 12 November, geolocated footage confirmed Russian progress in northern Pokrovsk. Moscow’s Ministry of Defense and milbloggers claimed the seizure of Sukhyi Yar and advances southwest of Rodynske, in eastern Novopidhorodne, and south of Molodetske — all near Pokrovsk.

Despite this, Ukrainian troops reportedly maintained or even regained positions in northern Pokrovsk and in the Zakhidnyi Microraion of central Myrnohrad. The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps reported Russia launched a multi-day assault on Pokrovsk using light vehicles along the M-30 highway. The unit confirmed Russia had established firing positions in several parts of Pokrovsk, but added that Ukrainian forces still controlled supply lines to the city.

Map: ISW.

A spokesperson for a Ukrainian drone battalion operating in Myrnohrad also said Ukrainian units continued receiving supplies there. Russian sources, meanwhile, acknowledged a Ukrainian counterattack near Rodynske, though they claimed the settlement remained in Russian hands.

ISW questions significance of Russian advances

According to the Institute for the Study of War, the strategic impact of Russia’s possible seizure of Pokrovsk hinges on how Ukraine withdraws — whether in an orderly fashion or under pressure. The think tank said Russian control of Pokrovsk as a logistics hub was already effectively achieved in July 2025.

Kremlin-linked sources exaggerate battlefield control

Russian milbloggers, many linked to the Kremlin, are mounting an aggressive information campaign claiming Pokrovsk is nearly or fully seized. One blogger said Russian troops gained "firm control" of the city by using heavy fog to advance, referencing footage of Russian soldiers entering Pokrovsk on motorcycles. Others declared that most of Myrnohrad is now a contested "gray zone."

Multiple milbloggers also circulated AI-generated videos allegedly showing mass Ukrainian surrenders in Myrnohrad. However, these were debunked by Ukraine’s General Staff and even by some Russian bloggers themselves. One milblogger even claimed Ukraine had shared the fake footage to discredit real videos from the front — while still insisting Russia held more ground than available evidence supports.

Russian forces are bolstering their positions in the Pokrovsk sector with reinforcements following infiltration-based advances, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Ukrainian commanders say Russian troops have infiltrated throughout the town and are attempting to push into rear positions.

Russia changes tactics to hold ground in Pokrovsk

The Russian military command is reportedly increasing its troop presence in the Pokrovsk direction. ISW assessed that this effort likely aims to consolidate gains made through earlier infiltration missions and push further into the city. Geolocated footage from 28 October shows Russian forces advancing southeast of Balahan, which lies east of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Russian military bloggers also claim that Russian troops reached the T-0515 Pokrovsk–Dobropillya highway in northeastern Pokrovsk and made progress both east and south of the town. Other reported advances include north of Novopavlivka and the seizure of parts of the Pokrovska Mine complex near Udachne, southwest of Pokrovsk.

Unusual use of armored assaults and elite troops

The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps reported that Russian forces conducted a platoon-sized mechanized assault near Myrnohrad at dawn on 5 November. Ukrainian defenders destroyed three vehicles. Such mechanized attacks have been rare in the Pokrovsk sector in recent months, with the only other known instances near Myrnohrad occurring on 13 and 22 October.

A Ukrainian servicemember said Russia has already carried out three troop rotations in the Pokrovsk direction in just four months due to heavy casualties. The servicemember also confirmed that Russia deployed unspecified Spetsnaz and naval infantry units to support the advance. ISW notes that this consolidation contrasts with earlier actions in the Dobropillya salient, where Russian forces failed to reinforce after initial penetration and were pushed back by Ukrainian counterattacks.

Assaults intensify across the sector

On 6 November, the Ukrainian 7th Corps stated that Russian assaults in its area of responsibility had significantly increased. In September, the average was 13 attacks per day; on 5 November alone, there were 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 276 combat engagements between 0800 on 10 November and 0800 on 11 November — with 100 of them taking place in the Pokrovsk sector.

A Ukrainian drone battalion commander noted that Russian troops are taking advantage of bad weather to group up and enter the town on motorcycles or buggies. He added that Russian forces are beginning to transport provisions and attempting to infiltrate northern Pokrovsk and reach Ukrainian rear positions, where drone teams and mortar crews operate.

According to the same commander, Russian troops have penetrated deep enough into Pokrovsk that Ukrainian and Russian positions are now mixed in a house-to-house configuration.

Russian forces are intensifying operations around Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, aiming to seize the town as fighting shifts to close-quarters battles under worsening weather, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports. According to the report, geolocated footage confirms recent Russian advances in both central and southeastern Pokrovsk, while Ukrainian troops say Russian units have infiltrated neighboring towns and established near-total fire control over Myrnohrad’s supply route.

Russian troops advance into urban core of Pokrovsk

ISW assessed on 1 November that Russian forces recently pushed deeper into central and southeastern Pokrovsk. Geolocated footage posted on 31 October and 1 November shows Russian troops advancing along Berezina Street in central Pokrovsk and on the M30 highway in the southeastern part of the city. Russian milbloggers went further, claiming advances in areas the footage does not support — including northeastern Pokrovsk and northeast of Kotlyne, southwest of the city.

A senior Ukrainian officer told Ukrainian outlet Hromadske on 31 October that Russian troops are currently operating in about 60% of Pokrovsk and have entered Rodynske to the north and Myrnohrad to the east. Meanwhile, geolocated video confirms Ukrainian forces still hold or recently regained ground in central Rodynske — a location where Russian sources earlier claimed control.

Russian redeployment shifts pressure to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad

On 1 November, the chief sergeant of a Ukrainian brigade in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, northeast of Pokrovsk, reported that Russian forces significantly reduced attacks there following a failed mechanized assault on 27 October. The officer suggested the drop in activity indicates Russia redeployed troops to strengthen its offensive on Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

A Ukrainian drone operator working in Pokrovsk told Hromadske that Russian units are isolating some Ukrainian positions through infiltration. A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade in the area confirmed logistics have become “complicated” but said Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) remain uncut.

A Ukrainian officer said Russian forces have near-total fire control over the narrow road supplying Myrnohrad.

Weather, infiltration, and drone combat reshape the Pokrovsk front

ISW emphasized that fog, rain, and urban terrain are disrupting both Russian and Ukrainian drone operations while shaping infiltration tactics. A Ukrainian officer told Hromadske on 31 October that infantry on the front line rarely engage in direct combat. Instead, Russian forces target drone and mortar crews operating in near rear positions.

The same officer stated that constant Russian infiltrations are forcing Ukrainian drone crews to shorten their flight times and prepare for direct combat, often engaging infiltrators with small arms. Ukrainian units have reportedly been forced to pull back their second echelon drone operators, reducing their capacity to strike Russian forces on Pokrovsk’s outskirts.

One Ukrainian drone pilot said control over high-rise buildings is now decisive. Both sides are fighting for rooftops and elevated terrain that allow operators to hit enemy GLOCs from up to 30 kilometers away.

Ukrainian paratroopers from the 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Air Assault Forces have liberated the village of Sukhetske in Pokrovsk district, Donetsk Oblast. On 25 October, the press service of the Air Assault Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine published a video showing soldiers raising the Ukrainian flag in the liberated settlement.

Assault and results

During the assault operations, Ukrainian troops engaged in heavy fighting with a Russian unit numbering more than 60 personnel, the Brigade says. According to the Air Assault Forces, 44 Russian occupiers were killed, eight were wounded, and nine surrendered. The command described the operation as “lightning-fast and uncompromising.”

The command stated that the Air Assault Forces demonstrate "resilience, strength, and precise calculation in the hottest points of the front," emphasizing that every meter of liberated land is a step toward victory earned by the courage and blood of Ukraine’s defenders.

Location and situation near Pokrovsk

Militarnyi noted that Sukhetske is located north of the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration, near the city of Rodynske. The liberation of the settlement slightly eases the Russian pressure around the agglomeration. However, Russian forces continue to attack this part of the front, carrying out infantry assaults on Pokrovsk.