Lithuania's military intelligence warned that Russia is considering using captured Ukrainian drones for false flag attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region, LRT reported. Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed the assessment and called the scenario "probably the most realistic" form of Russian provocation against the region. Lithuania has reinforced security at key infrastructure sites and deployed military forces since June.

Russia's false flag playbook with captured drone parts

Moscow could reassemble crashed and intercepted Ukrainian drone wreckage into functioning devices and launch them at targets in the Baltic states, Kaunas told reporters on 6 August. The goal: create confusion about who launched the strike and avoid accountability for hitting NATO territory.

"We have data that Russia is considering conducting unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region," Kaunas said. "It is likely that Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones for this purpose."

The Baltic region. Map: Euromaidan Press

The mechanism exploits a byproduct of Ukraine's drone war against Russia. As Ukrainian long-range drones hit oil infrastructure and military targets deep inside Russia, some are intercepted or crash. Russia collects the wreckage. 

"Russia possesses some of those parts and drone fragments and is capable of assembling them into a functioning device," Kaunas said. "The theoretical possibility that such drones could be used in a false flag operation exists."

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Kaunas emphasized no decision to launch such an operation had been detected. 

"We are talking about a false flag operation in which a fake Ukrainian drone could be used. At this point, that is probably the most realistic scenario."

The false flag warning follows a pattern of Ukrainian drones entering Baltic airspace after being diverted by Russian electronic warfare. NATO fighter jets shot down such drones over Latvia and Estonia this spring, and Lithuania shut Vilnius airport after detecting a drone crossing from Belarus.

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Multiple NATO allies see the same intelligence

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda had earlier raised concerns about possible conventional and sabotage strikes targeting the country's transport and energy networks. Kaunas echoed that message and pointed to a broader pattern across the alliance's eastern flank.

"Other NATO countries have repeatedly made it very clear that they see it, hear it, know about it, and have warned Russia not to do it," Kaunas said. He did not identify specific targets or a timeline for any potential attack.

Russia claimed the Baltic states open air corridors for Ukrainian drone strikes—without producing evidence. Russia also threatened NATO member Latvia with retaliation over the accusations. Nausėda publicly rejected Moscow's claims.

NATO upgraded its Baltic Air Policing rules of engagement in July, giving fighter jets authority to shoot down objects that pose a threat. Russia's military aircraft probed NATO's eastern flank so aggressively in July that scrambles jumped more than 250%.

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Latvia will open military mobilization centers in four cities and build anti-tank barriers in its capital this week as the Baltic NATO member rehearses wartime call-up procedures, Latvian Public Media (LSM) reported. The drills come as multiple Western intelligence agencies have warned that Russia may test NATO's eastern flank with a limited military provocation within years.

Latvia rehearses crisis conscription

On 8 August, Latvia's National Armed Forces (NBS) will deploy mobilization centers in Rīga, Kuldīga, Valmiera, and Alūksne. The purpose is to train and improve procedures for calling up and conscripting Latvian citizens in a crisis. Citizens who applied for voluntary reserve training will report to the centers and travel to the Infantry School in Alūksne for a three-week military course.

The course, running from 8 to 29 August, will train 114 reservists in weapons handling, combat shooting, communications, topography, terrain orientation, field combat, and advanced first aid. After completing the program, reservists will take the soldier's oath, receive a reserve soldier's certificate and a mobilization order. Reserve soldiers must refresh their skills every four years.

Both women and men — Latvian citizens aged 18 to 60 with at least primary education, intermediate Latvian, no criminal record, and good health — can apply.

Today, on 7 August, a separate exercise in the capital will test Riga's ability to erect anti-mobility engineering structures — physical obstacles designed to slow enemy forces in urban environments. 

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Defense preparations accelerate amid Russian threats

The drills are the latest in a series of concrete defense steps Latvia has taken as the threat from Russia grows. 

Latvia's military chief warned in June that Russia could exploit its drone advantage to attack the Baltics by the end of 2028. In July, Latvia hardened security at its hydroelectric dam and gas storage facility after intelligence flagged specific Russian threats, and its prime minister asked NATO for more troops and air defense. 

Latvia completed a 280-km border fence in late 2025.