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Ukraine’s sky has two kinds of threats now, and it handles only one of them well

A Russian jet-powered Shahed-series drone downed in a field in Ukraine

Ukraine's air defense intercepted more than 8,000 Russian drones and missiles in October, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on 4 November. Ukrainian forces also neutralized more than 43,000 tactical-level drones, the ministry added, citing the Air Force. In September, the ministry reported more than 4,700 drones and missiles intercepted.

Russia fires drones and missiles at Ukraine almost every night, and this autumn it has targeted the power grid. Ukraine has answered the drones with interceptor drones, gun turrets, and mobile fire groups. Ballistic missiles remain the gap, as the Trump administration keeps delaying the Patriot PAC-3 interceptors built mainly to stop them. Each monthly count shows whether Ukraine's defenses keep pace with Russia's factories as winter approaches.

Two in three jet drones downed, Ukraine's General Staff says

Russia used 6,473 Shahed-type attack drones against Ukraine in October, Ukraine's General Staff reported on 2 November. Ukrainian forces destroyed 4,859 of them. They stopped 66% of the jet-powered drones and 89% of the slower propeller ones. Earlier this autumn, Ukraine stopped about 55% of the jet drones.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry counts differently, and its list includes decoys. Its combined count of 4,455 covers Shahed-131/136 attack drones, Gerbera drones, and Parodiya imitation drones. It also lists 2,688 jet-powered Shahed-238s, up from 1,935 in September. Air defense also downed 1,104 reconnaissance drones and 809 Lancet loitering munitions.

The attacks have not let up in November. Overnight on 4 November, Russia launched 310 attack drones and decoys, 81 of them jet-powered, Ukraine's Air Force reported. By 08:00, air defenses had downed or suppressed 272, including 64 of the jets. Russian drones hit 19 locations, and more than 20 were still in the air. A day earlier, Russia sent three drones at a substation serving a nuclear plant.

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Ballistic missiles are still the hardest to stop

In October, Ukraine intercepted 11 Iskander-M or North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles, up from eight in September. It also downed 14 Kh-101, 12 Kalibr, and eight Iskander-K cruise missiles. The list adds seven Kh-59/69 guided missiles, one Zircon, and 143 S8000 Banderol missiles. In September, the count included 24 Kh-101s and eight Zircons. The ministry did not say how many missiles Russia launched.

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The ministry's October summary also addressed Russia's ballistic strikes on Ukrainian cities.

“Ballistics, which the enemy actively used to hit civilian infrastructure, remains a separate challenge. To protect Ukrainian skies effectively, the Defense Forces need more effective means of countering Russian ballistic missiles,” the ministry said.

Russia can build over 200 missiles a month, Ukrainian intelligence says

As of October, Russia held up to 700 ballistic and several thousand cruise missiles, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said on 4 November. Its industry can make more than 200 missiles a month, up to 110 of them ballistic. HUR had given the same estimates in October. Russia has about 115 Iskander-M missiles and makes about 65 a month. Russia holds more than 450 Kalibr cruise missiles and sends a significant part of them to its strategic reserve, HUR said. Production of Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles is temporarily paused over accuracy problems.

HUR also put Russia's stock of Oniks anti-ship missiles at over 600. Russia has fitted them with a more powerful warhead and longer range for ground strikes. It made more than 55 of them in seven months. Russia holds more than 120 Zircon missiles and made over 30 in seven months of 2026.

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