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ISW: Russia has taken just 81 km² of Ukraine this year—while claiming 2,226

Par :Yuri Zoria

isw russia has taken just 81 km² ukraine year—while claiming 2226 · post russian president vladimir putin (left) chief general staff valery gerasimov (right) arrive command russia’s joint group forces

Russia's forces have gained little ground in Ukraine this year even as Moscow inflates its battlefield tallies and stiffens its demands, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ukrainian defenses and a counteroffensive have held Russian advances to a fraction of the official claims. That gap, the analysts said, appears to shape the Kremlin's thinking about war and peace.

Ukraine has spent this year turning Russian assaults into heavy losses for marginal ground. Each month of stalemate raises the human and economic price both sides pay to hold their positions. A Kremlin convinced it is winning is a Kremlin unlikely to negotiate, which points to more fighting rather than less. At the same time, Ukraine keeps widening its deep-strike campaign against the logistics, fuel, and industry funding the invasion, shifting pressure off the near-static front and onto Russia's rear.

The gap between the map and the front

On 22 July, the Russian Defense Ministry amplified a claim that its forces seized 2,226 km² in the first half of 2026. The figure came from a Russian propaganda Telegram channel. ISW assessed a far smaller number. By its count, Russian troops hold a net 81 km² gained across 2026 so far. Units seized or infiltrated about 627 km², the analysts found, but infiltration is not control. Soldiers who slip into a field or treeline do not hold it. Stripping those gains out leaves the smaller total. 

A strong Ukrainian spring-summer counteroffensive helped keep Russia's net advance this low, ISW noted.

Moscow inflates the picture Putin sees

The exaggeration is not only public messaging. Russian officials keep constructing a false reality that appears to shape President Vladimir Putin and his choices. Russian channels have done this before over occupied Crimea's supply lines. Occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky recently assured Putin that the main road to Crimea was secure. Russia's own war bloggers refuted him within hours. ISW noted that inflated reports encourage Putin to keep refusing compromise.

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