On or around 12 August, a Russian Geran-4 attack drone found a Ukrainian navy CB-90 in the waters off the Kinburn Spit and attacked it. Three days later, another Geran-4 went after a Ukrainian tugboat in the same waters. If the CB-90 sank, it may be the first one the Ukrainian navy has lost.

The CB-90 is a Swedish design and a Swedish gift, and it is the reason Ukraine can raid the spit at all. Fifteen meters long, armored against small arms, gun-armed and capable of around 40 knots, it can put 21 troops—or a ton of machinery—onto a hostile beach and be gone before the defenders react. Sweden has supplied most of the more than 38 in Ukrainian service; Norway, the Netherlands and the Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov's Steel Front initiative supplied the rest. Swedish instructors trained the crews.

Russia has now answered Ukraine's raids, and it is aiming at the boats rather than the raiders. The Geran-4s doing the hunting are jet-propelled, AI-assisted and fast enough to outrun most of what Ukraine can shoot back with. If the campaign continues, it could close the approach that has made the raids possible.

What that approach makes possible is worth spelling out. In July, unmanned boats belonging to the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces landed at least one gun-armed unmanned ground vehicle on the Kinburn Spit, the westernmost Russian outpost in occupied Ukraine. As aerial drones watched, the UGV opened fire on a nearby Russian installation. No Ukrainian was anywhere near the beach.

Russian forces on the Kinburn Spit can monitor Ukrainian maritime traffic, making the narrow sandy spit a key outpost in the ongoing battle for the Black Sea's most important sea lanes. Ukrainian forces are determined to dislodge Russian forces from the spit. The Russians are determined to cling to their sandy outpost.

The Geran attacks are helping. The 12 August Geran raid targeted the CB-90. The 15 August Geran raid targeted the tugboat. It's unclear how much damage the Gerans inflicted, but it's worth noting that the CB-90 is just 15 m long; a tugboat might be slightly longer. A Geran's warhead weighs as much as 90 kg—probably enough to sink such a small vessel or burn it down to the keel.

The Ukrainian navy has only a few large warships, and they're all donated minehunters that have been waiting out the current wider war in the relative safety of European waters. The bulk of the Ukrainian fleet is made up of small patrol boats, auxiliaries such as tugs, and several types of unmanned surface vessels. These vessels defend waterways and ports and, more rarely, support offensive operations.

Spit raids

The July robot landing was one episode in a long Ukrainian raiding campaign along the spit—the kind of operation the Geran-4s are now trying to spoil.

The Geran strikes on Ukrainian boats could blunt these raids and help the Russians maintain their tenuous hold on the Kinburn Spit. The Russian strikes are part of a wider maritime campaign. Shortly after Ukrainian drone units began targeting the unregistered cargo ships and tankers belonging to Russia's shadow fleet, Russian drone and missile units retaliated—with devastating attacks on Ukrainian ports and the ships sailing to and from these ports in support of Ukraine's lucrative grain exports.

The Ukrainian attacks on the shadow fleet damaged hundreds of ships and effectively ground Russian Black Sea trade to a halt. But Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports effectively ground Ukrainian Black Sea trade to a halt, too.

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The new jet-propelled Geran-4s with their AI-assisted targeting were central to the effort. Their 500 km/h top speed makes them hard to shoot down. And the AI makes jamming far less useful than it used to be: the operator locks the drone onto a target, and from there the machine vision flies the attack, holding the lock even if Ukrainian electronic warfare severs the radio link in the final seconds.

That makes the CB-90s valuable targets. Armed with guns and armored against enemy small arms fire, they're perfect for raiding far-flung enemy outposts such as those on the Kinburn Spit. But they're vulnerable to drone attack—and each one is irreplaceable in the sense that matters, since Ukraine cannot build them and has to wait for the next donation.

Ukrainian forces aren't powerless to stop the Russians from spoiling Ukrainian raids on the spit. Geran-4s might be too fast for Ukrainian gun teams, armed light aircraft, and cheap interceptor drones, but they're not too fast for supersonic Ukrainian air force MiG-29 fighters.

Several of the MiGs patrol over the western Black Sea. One crashed recently, but others remain.

Japan's Self-Defense Forces shadowed four Russian missile boats as they passed close to the country's northern coast, the Japanese Joint Staff reported. The warships never entered Japanese waters, yet the move sharpened a diplomatic standoff over islands Russia seized in 1945. Tokyo lodged a protest and summoned Russia's ambassador.

Japan tracked the warships back through the strait

On 14 August, Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force spotted the four boats near Cape Soya on Hokkaido, heading west. A P-3C patrol aircraft from the 2nd Air Wing watched them and gathered information. The boats stayed 40 kilometers from shore and did not cross into Japanese waters.

The vessels carried hull numbers 916, 946, 971, and 978. Japan had spotted the same four ships on 9 August, 70 kilometers northwest of Rebun Island. They then passed east through the Soya Strait before doubling back.

The transit followed Putin's trip to a contested island

The return passage came days after Vladimir Putin visited Iturup—one of the Kuril Islands—on 13 August. The Soviet Union seized the island in 1945, breaking a neutrality pact it had signed with Japan. Moscow treats the Kuril archipelago as strategically vital and keeps building up forces there. Iturup hosts the Burevestnik military airfield.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called Putin's trip absolutely unacceptable. She said it contradicts Tokyo's stance on the Northern Territories, as Japan calls the islands. Japan's Foreign Ministry summoned Russia's ambassador, Nikolai Nozdrev, and lodged a firm protest. It asked him to pass Tokyo's position to Moscow at once.

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What the Molniya-1 missile boats carry

Militarnyi noted that the project 12411M Molniya-1 boats, which NATO calls Tarantul III, come from the Almaz Central Marine Design Bureau. The first entered service in 1981.

They are built to hit surface targets in coastal and near-sea zones. Their main upgrade over earlier versions was four supersonic Moskit anti-ship missiles, replacing the older Termit.

Each boat can reach 41 knots and carries a crew of 40. Its weapons include a 76mm gun, two rapid-fire 30mm mounts, and Igla-1 air-defense missiles.

The four belong to Russia's Pacific Fleet. The oldest, hull 971, entered service in 1990, and the newest, hull 916, in 2003.