Overnight on 7 August, a vessel was possibly sunk in the Black Sea near Novorossiysk, the Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ reports. The project, which spotted the ship in satellite imagery, suggests it may have been carrying military cargo.

Russia has a practice of concealing its fleet losses. Moscow tries to mask the scale of the problem in various ways: it classifies sinkings as accidents, downplays the number of casualties, or stays completely silent about vessel losses. Russia acknowledges fleet losses only when it happens accidentally or when concealing the sinking or damage is no longer possible. The 141-meter vessel, which had no foreign owner to demand explanations, has received none.

Russian officials have not commented on the sinking, Exilenova+ says.

"The news passed quite modestly, but there is a nuance. Russia's 'official' authorities have not reported about any sunken vessel. It just sank. It is not ruled out that the ship was carrying military cargo for Russia's armed forces. Otherwise, why pretend nothing happened?" Exilenova+ wrote.

The vessel was approximately 141 meters long, suggesting a displacement of roughly 10,000 tonnes, according to the Ukrainian outlet Militarnyi.

The strikes that may have caused the sinking

Over 48 hours on 6-7 August, the Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) struck 102 enemy targets, SBS Commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi reported. In the same post, he noted that the targets included six shadow fleet vessels in the Black and Azov Seas: two tankers and four dry cargo ships. The SBS also reported striking three units of Russia's fleet on 7 August alone.

"It is entirely possible that the vessel that sank near Novorossiysk is among those struck in those days”, Militarnyi suggests.

Novorossiysk under fire again on 12 August

Just hours after the news of the earlier reported sinking surfaced publicly, Novorossiysk came under attack. Overnight on 12 August, Ukraine's defense forces conducted what President Zelenskyy called a "unique operation" against the naval base, using Palianytsia jet drones, Neptune missiles, and unmanned naval systems.

Novorossiysk became Russia's primary Black Sea naval hub after Ukrainian strikes forced the fleet out of Sevastopol.

Newly analyzed airport camera footage shows a quadcopter drone loaded with Semtex explosive flew straight at a parked Ukrainian An-124 Ruslan cargo aircraft and struck its wing at Leipzig/Halle airport in Germany on the evening of 4 August, the media outlet Die Zeit reported on 10 August. The device bounced off the wing, fell to the ground, and failed to detonate. The drone attacked the aircraft at around 19:30 local time, the media outlet reports.

Russia's hybrid attacks are increasingly moving from the information domain into the physical one, including on the territory of other countries. This incident makes sabotage on NATO member states' territory potentially more dangerous if suspicion of Russian involvement is confirmed.

Footage contradicts the warning-shot theory

The drone struck the wing near the fuel tanks, then bounced off the aircraft's surface and fell to the ground. The explosive device also ended up on the ground and did not detonate. The device contained Semtex plastic explosive. Approximately four hours later, a tourist bus driver accidentally noticed it lying on the ground, put his foot on it, and reported the find to airport security.

Video analysis contradicts the earlier theory that the incident may have been intended only as a warning. The nature of the attack indicates an attempt to cause actual damage.

Investigators examining foreign state involvement

German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt suggested that a state actor may have been behind the explosive-laden drone found at the airport. On 7 August, Germany's National Security Council convened under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Earlier, the United States assessed that the drone discovered at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany overnight into 5 August belonged to Russian intelligence, a US Department of Defense official in Europe told CNN.

The cargo aboard the Ukrainian aircraft targeted in the sabotage attempt consisted of military equipment and ammunition that had arrived in Germany from France and was being prepared for further transportation, Süddeutsche Zeitung stated, citing a confidential German police report. However, Germany's Federal Ministry of the Interior denied this claim, according to dpa.

The An-124 Ruslan, struck by the drone, is operated by the Ukrainian company Antonov Airlines. After Russian forces destroyed its main base in Hostomel in 2022, the company has been using Leipzig/Halle airport as a temporary base for its aircraft.