Ukraine has lost another Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter and its pilot. The Thursday shoot-down extends the steady attrition of the Ukrainian air force MiG fleet, potentially drawing down the fleet to its pre-war strength.

That means Ukraine may have lost as many of the twin-engine, supersonic MiG-29s as it has received from its allies or restored from surplus stocks since February 2022.

It's an ominous milestone. The Soviet-vintage MiG-29 is no longer the Ukrainian air force's most important fighter. That honorific belongs to the air force's ex-European Lockheed Martin F-16s.

But the MiG-29 is still the air force's second most important fighter—and will remain so through 2027 as Ukraine awaits its first ex-Swedish Saab Gripens, due early next year, and French-made Dassault Rafales, due from 2028. Ukraine sorties MiG-29s for ground attack missions targeting Russian troop concentrations, strikes on Russian air defense systems, and air defense sorties over Ukrainian cities and ports.

The air force announced the loss of the MiG-29 and its pilot, Capt. Marat Mambetov, shortly after it occurred on Thursday. Mambetov, 25, was a flight commander in the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade, known as the "Ghost of Kyiv" brigade. "Flying a MiG-29 fighter jet, [Mambetov] carried out missile and bomb strikes against Russian occupiers along one of the front-line directions," the air force stated. "During the mission, his aircraft was hit by an enemy missile. The pilot ejected, but tragically did not survive."

It's the 37th confirmed combat loss of a Ukrainian MiG-29 since Russia widened its war on Ukraine in February 2022, according to a tally by the Oryx open-source intelligence collective. Oryx has also registered damage to an additional three Ukrainian MiG-29s.

Thirty-seven write-offs, plus the likely grounding of several previously flyable MiG-29s owing to intensive wear and tear since 2022, may have reduced the Ukrainian air force's MiG-29 fleet to around three dozen active jets.

Fighter subtraction

The math is simple. The air force probably had between 30 and 35 MiG-29s in service when Russia attacked in February 2022. As losses cut into the fleet, Poland donated 14 surplus MiGs, Slovakia donated 10, and Azerbaijan reportedly donated three. Meanwhile, Ukrainian engineers tapped a global pipeline of spare parts to reactivate an estimated 20 grounded MiG-29s moldering in hangars at various Ukrainian airfields.

That's as many as 82 MiGs in and, as of Thursday, 37 out owing to Russian action—plus additional jets grounded due to airframe fatigue. The resulting active fleet should number around three dozen planes, around as many as Ukraine had on the eve of the wider war.

There aren't many more old MiGs that Ukraine could obtain to bolster the fleet. Poland still has as many as nine very tired airframes, but Kyiv and Warsaw have consistently failed to negotiate a transfer. There may yet be a few ex-Soviet MiG-29s, grounded for years or even decades, that Ukrainian engineers can restore to flightworthy status. Other than that, options are scarce.

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The three dozen MiGs still in the inventory may have to last a little while alongside the few survivors of Ukraine's other Soviet-vintage warplanes, including Sukhoi Su-27s, Sukhoi Su-24s, and Sukhoi Su-25s.

Older Western types—the 80 or so F-16s European allies have pledged, about half delivered, as well as potentially a dozen or so ex-French Dassault Mirage 2000s—are steadily replacing the ex-Soviet jets. (So far, Ukraine has lost five F-16s and one Mirage.) Next year, the transformation of the Ukrainian air force from a largely Soviet-equipped force to a largely Western-equipped force will accelerate when the first of 32 Gripens arrive. Sixteen Rafales are to follow from 2028.

Barring catastrophic combat losses among Western types and assuming Ukraine can maintain and arm these new warplanes, by the end of 2027, the air force may not need its remaining MiGs and Sukhois, which by then could be very tired.

Russian missiles are steadily reducing the MiG and Sukhoi fleets, effectively forcing Ukraine to switch to new types.

France delivered additional MICA air-to-air missiles and 30mm cannon ammunition for Ukraine's Mirage 2000 fighter jets, Militarnyi reported, citing France's Armed Forces Ministry.

Delivering an aircraft is one step, keeping it armed is another. France's weapons resupply reflects a shift from one-off hardware transfers to sustained combat support as Russia's aerial campaign against Ukrainian cities grinds on.

What MICA does

The MICA, developed by MBDA, comes in two versions: radar-guided (MICA RF) and infrared (MICA IR). It weighs about 112 kg, flies at Mach 4.9—nearly five times the speed of sound—and can engage targets 60 to 80 km away.

Ukraine's Mirages have also carried older Magic 2 missiles limited to roughly 20 km. MICAs were reportedly included with the original donation, but the supply may have been limited, which would explain why the Magic 2s stayed in use. MICA triples to quadruples that engagement window, letting pilots intercept cruise missiles far earlier in their flight path. The fresh delivery keeps Ukraine's small fleet supplied with the missiles that make these longer-range interceptions possible.

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The 30mm ammunition feeds the Mirage's two built-in DEFA 554 cannons, which fire at a selectable rate of 1,200 or 1,800 rounds per minute. A pilot who uses the gun on a Shahed drone saves a MICA for a target that actually needs one.

Ukraine's F-16 operations follow a similar logic: pilots use their 20mm Vulcan cannons alongside AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles, though Zelenskyy called the missile option expensive—used when nothing else can reach a jet drone, because "a human life is more important."

A Ukrainian Mirage 2000 shot down a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile during its very first combat mission, on 7 March 2025. France has delivered about a dozen modified Mirage 2000-5F jets since February 2025, and the fleet is still growing.