A Ukrainian Neptune cruise missile battery tried to strike targets in southern Russia’s Krasnodar Krai region on Thursday. The strike failed as Russian S-300 air-defense missiles rose to intercept the incoming Neptunes—and then the Russians struck back.

A surveillance drone spotted a truck-mounted Neptune launcher, apparently the same launcher that targeted Krasnodar Krai. An Iskander ballistic missile streaked down, damaging if not destroying the Ukrainian launcher.

The hit on the Neptune battery underscores the risk to Ukrainian forces as they induct new and harder-hitting drones and missiles and escalate their deep strike campaign bombarding Russian factories, air bases, oil refineries and other strategic targets.

Russian troops and key war-industry workers are in growing trouble as the Ukrainian munitions strike farther and harder. But the Ukrainian missile and drone crews aren’t immune to harm. Russia is responding to Ukraine’s deep strike campaign with a counter deep strike campaign.

It’s unclear what the Ukrainian Neptune battery was trying to hit in Krasnodar Krai. There’s no shortage of targets, including air bases, air-defense sites and others. In any event, Russian surface-to-air missile batteries were ready, for once.

While the Russians “can’t defend everywhere,” according to retired US Army general Mark Hertling, they managed to defend Krasnodar Krai on Thursday. Four S-300 long-range SAMs spiraled into the air, swatting down the salvo of Neptunes.

It’s hard to say whether the Neptunes in the attempted raid were the standard 300-km version of the made-in-Ukraine missile or the new 1,000-km “long” version. The Ukrainian navy used standard Neptunes, which are capable of anti-ship and land-attack strikes, to sink the Russian navy cruiser Moskva in April 2022.

Since then, Ukraine has expanded its deployment of the subsonic missile, which packs a 150-kg warhead and may feature satellite and inertial navigation and a radar or infrared seeker. And it has added an even more powerful missile: the Flamingo, which ranges a staggering 3,000 km with a massive 1,000-kg warhead. Its guidance and seeker may be similar to the Long Neptune’s.

Ukraine strikes back

With scores of cruise missiles and thousands of one-way attack drones a month, “Ukraine is increasingly taking the war to Russia now,” American-Ukrainian war correspondent David Kirichenko wrote in a new essay for The Atlantic Council. Drone and missile attacks on Russian oil refineries in recent weeks have throttled Russia’s refining by as much as 14%.

Russia is also waging a deep strike campaign, of course—and with more drones and missiles. But Russia’s drone and missile attacks mostly targets Ukrainian cities in a country of just 233,000 square miles. Ukraine’s drones and missiles target military and industrial targets in a country of 6.6 million square miles.

Between them, the Long Neptune, the Flamingo and Ukraine’s best attack drones should be able to hold at risk roughly half that area.

Ukraine’s air defense problem is hard but simple. Ukrainian defenses must contend with nearly daily raids involving potentially hundreds of drones and missiles, but they can concentrate around the biggest cities that are the Russians’ main targets.

By contrast, Russia’s air defense problem is hard and complex. “The Kremlin simply does not have enough air defense systems to protect thousands of potential military and energy targets spread across 11 time zones,” Kirichenko wrote. In that context, the successful interception of the Neptunes streaking toward Krasnodar Krai may have been an outlier.

And it makes sense for the Russians to target Ukraine’s best cruise missiles “left of the boom.” to borrow a US Army term. It’s better to blast a missile launcher, and kill or injure its crew, than to risk missing a missile after it launches.

Ukrainian missileers should know they’re being hunted. Every time they roll out for a launch, Russian drones will be looking for them—and Russian ballistic missiles will be ready to take aim.

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Ukraine struck a critical Russian military-industrial site overnight on July 5 that produces components for high-precision weapons used by Moscow to attack Ukraine, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported.

The site in question is JSC VNIIR-Progress, a Russian state institute that specializes in developing electronic warfare (EW) systems, including the Kometa antenna arrays, used to jam satellite, radio, and radar signals.

The institute is located in Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, about 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) away from the Ukrainian border.

The Kometa antenna is used in Shahed-type drones, Iskander-K cruise missiles, and guided aerial bomb modules — all high-precision weapons used by Russia to strike civilian and military targets across Ukraine.

The General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian weapons reached the target area but said final damage assessments were still underway.

The VNIIR-Progress institute has been sanctioned by both the United States and the European Union for its role in supporting Russia's war effort.

The Iskander-K is a precision-guided cruise missile with a range of up to 500 kilometers (311 miles), frequently used by Russia to target civilian areas. Shahed drones have become a central part of Moscow's airstrike tactics since late 2022 due to their low cost and high payload.

Located on the Volga River, Cheboksary is the capital of the Chuvash Republic and lies deep inside Russian territory. Russian independent media outlet Astra and local Telegram channels earlier reported explosions in the city overnight.

Russia's Defense Ministry claimed to have shot down two drones over the region.

This marks the second known Ukrainian drone strike on VNIIR-Progress. On June 9, explosions and fires were also reported at the facility following another drone attack.