Day 1283

On 29 August, the biggest news comes from Ukraine.

Russians are sending their infiltration groups across the river, threatening a breakthrough that Russian commanders had long sought after. However, before they could receive orders to hit Ukrainians from behind, Ukrainian tanks rolled up and started annihilating Russian assault units point-blank.

The main Russian goal here is to take control of the town of Lyman, as the strategic location will serve as a stepping stone for future operations. If captured, Lyman would serve as a forward operating base for three major offensives: a pincer to trap Ukrainian forces along the Oskil river, a southern strike to outflank Siversk, and a push deeper into Donetsk toward the last Ukrainian stronghold of fortified settlements before the terrain opens into vulnerable plains.

To do any of this though, Russia first needs to breach Ukrainian positions east of Lyman and secure a reliable crossing point over the Zherebets River, as the battles for Torske and Zarichne unfold. Russian forces have advanced on two settlements from three sides: using small unit infiltration tactics rather than large-scale assaults. Larger attacks have ended in disaster like a recent 25-strong motorcycle charge near Torske, which was destroyed by artillery and drones. The result is a series of grinding Russian probing assaults, with Russian troops attempting to sneak across terrain and establish a foothold before being detected. Ukrainian forces have responded with an active defense, flexible positions, mobile counterattacks, and deliberate withdrawals to avoid major casualties. As a result, Torske is currently a grey zone where no side holds full control, Ukrainian commanders are prioritizing maintaining long-term combat strength over a static defense.

Both sides have key advantages here, as Russian units have managed to establish a stable infiltration corridor through the Serebryanskyi forest, which allows small detachments to cross into the area around Zarichne with some level of cover.

Meanwhile, Ukraine maintains an advantage through its rapid reaction capabilities, allowing it to strike back before Russian units can consolidate. Thermal drones monitor positions, and armored units are held ready for quick strikes once a Russian presence is detected, with Russian drone operators unable to quickly respond and intercept.

Geolocated footage shows how Russian troops infiltrated through the forest and entered houses on the edge of the village. Ukraine responded by dispatching a tank to eliminate the group, firing four high-explosive shells in direct fire to blow up each of the buildings and any Russians inside. Ukrainian thermal drones monitored the entire exchange, and no follow-up footage was released, suggesting the tank successfully eliminated the entire group.

Based on the size and number of the infiltrated buildings, and the standard size of Russian groupings that gather before committing to assaults, between 20 and 30 Russians were likely killed. The tactic of rapid armored response under thermal cover is extremely effective, exactly because Russian drone and artillery units do not have enough time to rapidly respond and destroy the tank.

Ukrainian forces have also laid down layered passive defenses, including razorwire barriers, and these are meant to delay infiltrators just long enough for drone operators to locate and eliminate them with strikes of their own. In one recent incident, a Russian soldier became entangled in Egoza-type razorwire and was eliminated by a drone while immobilized, illustrating how Ukraine pairs static defenses with real-time drone surveillance and immediate strike responses, keeping most Russian infiltrators from ever establishing a foothold.

Overall, the battle for Lyman continues to evolve, and Russia’s goals are clear: take the city and turn it into a launchpad for a tri-pronged offensive across northern Donetsk. For now though, Russia is struggling to even cross the Zherebets River in enough force to make a dent. Ukrainian forces are using active defense tactics, armored counters, and thermal drone coverage to keep the front fluid and prevent Russian forces from consolidating gains. As road conditions worsen heading into autumn, Russia’s window for launching a full-scale assalt is narrowing.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war

Today, there are interesting updates from the Russian Federation. Ukrainians are depriving the Russian armed forces of ammunition, crucial for every aspect of warfare. By targeting every step in the production chain, from the very first stage of gunpowder production to ammunition depots near the frontline, Ukraine is making sure the Russians won’t have enough shells, rockets, and drones to launch.

Massive explosion at Ryazan gunpowder plant

Ukraine has dealt another devastating blow to Russia’s war machine with the destruction of one of its largest gunpowder factories. A massive blast ripped through the Elastic plant in Ryazan Oblast following a Ukrainian drone strike, obliterating four major buildings, including critical powder storage facilities. The strike reportedly destroyed around 300 tons of artillery powder and hundreds of 152 millimeter shells.

The destruction was compounded by heavy casualties among the staff, who worked around the clock in non-stop shifts to sustain Russia’s artillery demands. Footage from locals showed huge flames and the complete annihilation of the workshop where the explosion originated.

Tambov’s Kotovsky gunpowder plant destroyed

In Tambov, another Ukrainian drone strike destroyed the Kotovsky gunpowder plant, a facility under Rostec that manufactures critical powders for weapons and ammunition. This site was especially significant, as it is the only factory in Russia capable of producing certain nitrocellulose-based powders. Its loss is irreplaceable in the short term, compounding Russia’s growing shortages of artillery and rocket propellants.

Systematic strikes on Russia’s war economy

With two of Russia’s main gunpowder factories reduced to rubble, Ukrainian forces have demonstrated a strategy aimed not just at the battlefield but at the very foundations of Russia’s war economy.

By targeting gunpowder plants, chemical facilities, and depots, Ukraine is systematically dismantling the production cycle that feeds the Russian war effort. Without powder, explosives, or propellants, even the most advanced missile or artillery system becomes useless.

Drone strike on Moscow’s Chemical Research Institute

One of the most notable attacks took place in Moscow Oblast, where Ukrainian drones struck the Research Institute of Applied Chemistry in Sergiyev Posad. This enterprise produced thermobaric warheads for Shahed drones and incendiary mixtures for Russia’s notorious TOS-1 thermobaric artillery systems.

Ukraine targets missile propellant factories

Ukrainian forces also targeted the Krasnozavodsky Chemical Plant, a critical facility that produced oxidizers and propellants for S-300 and S-400 air defense systems, as well as Iskander and Buk missiles.

In Tula Oblast, Ukrainian drones hit the Azot chemical plant for a second time in recent months, sparking fires at a site tied closely to Russia’s defense production.

Explosions at Nevinnomysskiy Azot plant in Stavropol Krai

Further south, Ukrainian drones pummeled the Nevinnomysskiy Azot plant in Stavropol Krai with 20 explosions, targeting nitric acid production essential for high explosives like octogen and hexogen. Reports confirmed the facility was still burning after the attack, also its second in two months.

Strikes near Belgorod and Donetsk

Similarly, near Belgorod, the Selena chemical reagent plant in Shebekino was struck, igniting fires and disrupting yet another component of Russia’s supply chain.

Even when ammunition makes it through the production process, Ukraine continues to hunt it down before it can be deployed. Ukrainian drones struck occupied Donetsk, igniting an ammunition depot, while another operation targeted Russian jets and storage sites at the Saky airbase in Crimea.

Melitopol depot erupts in massive secondary explosions

In Melitopol, footage emerged of a Russian depot erupting in massive secondary explosions, underscoring Ukraine’s relentless pursuit of enemy munitions at every stage of their way to the front.

Ukraine’s strategy weakens Russia long-term

Overall, the Ukrainian campaign is systematic, devastating, and long-term in vision. By hitting gunpowder factories, chemical plants, and ammunition depots, Ukraine is ensuring that Russia faces a mounting supply crisis that will cripple both its offensive and defensive capabilities.

Ukrainians target facilities that cannot be easily replaced, as restarting production at destroyed plants will take months, if not years, to restore. For Russia, this means fewer shells, fewer rockets, and fewer options to pressure Ukraine both at the front and in the rear. For Ukraine, it is a decisive strategy, dismantling the enemy’s war machine one critical explosion at a time.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Day 1280

On 26 August, the biggest news comes from Ukraine.

Here, Ukrainian long-range drones have attacked and sunk a Russian cargo vessel carrying Iranian Shahed drones before they could be unloaded. This was only the first step of what followed – a broader campaign in which Ukraine targeted everything connected to the Iranian Shahed drones, from launch sites to massive storage depots and assembly plants.

The first target of Ukraine became Port Olya on the Caspian sea, where they targeted a vessel of extreme importance, as the ship was loaded with ammunition and drone parts for Iranian Shahed drones. Footage shows the vessel listing, its bridge gutted by fire, and its hull partly submerged, contradicting Russian claims of light damage. Olya is Russia’s main port on the Caspian, linking Iran with inland routes, and striking here disrupted a key corridor that has funnelled Iranian drones into Russia for nightly strikes on Ukrainian cities.

The attack showed that shipments can be destroyed even at their entry point, far from the front, and for Ukraine, this sets a precedent for targeting the logistics routes that feed Russia’s drone campaign.

Ukraine has begun a methodical campaign against every stage of the Shahed program, aiming to destroy transport, launch, storage, and production sites in sequence.

The next strike hit the Primorsko-Akhtarsk airfield in Krasnodar, a known launch site for Shaheds across the Sea of Azov. Overnight, drones hit launch areas, with satellite data confirming fires shortly after Russian launch activity was detected. Because this airfield has been central to Russia’s swarm attacks, earlier satellite data shows repeated targeting to reduce operational capacity over time. Each strike forces Moscow to lean more on mobile launchers, which reduces massing and degrades the effectiveness of their saturation-style attacks.

Ukraine also struck storage depots in Tatarstan, over 1,300 kilometers from the border. At Kzyl-Yul, long-range drones hit warehouses storing ready-to-use Shaheds and imported parts, igniting fires that burned through the site.

Russian outlets tried to minimize the impact, but Ukrainian intelligence confirmed that a large number of drones were destroyed before they could be moved forward. Images shared by Russian sources of similar depots suggest that a single warehouse can hold a full strike package, often numbering hundreds in one facility alone. This was not an isolated event, as Ukraine hit the same depot again a short while later, waiting for the depot to be replenished before striking again.

The factory at Yelabuga in Tatarstan has also remained under Ukrainian fire, because this plant is the largest and central to Russia’s effort to assemble Shaheds domestically and reduce dependency on Iranian supplies. Earlier strikes damaged workshops and caused fires, and recent attacks again reached the site.

For Russia, keeping the factory running is critical to sustaining output, but each hit delays production and raises the cost of finding technicians willing to work under threat, and after repeated strikes, few will take jobs at a site that is a major target for Ukraine, which the Russian government also cannot protect. For Ukraine, hitting Yelabuga targets the core of Russian drone assembly, and returning to the site after earlier attacks signals that Ukraine can monitor and disrupt production in cycles, not just once.

The sequence of strikes on a ship destroyed in Astrakhan, a launch site hit in Krasnodar, depots burning in Tatarstan, and a factory repeatedly attacked reflects a deliberate strategy. Ukraine is no longer just intercepting drones in the air but targeting the full ecosystem that enables their use, because the fight has shifted from defense to offense. By striking the supply chain from point of entry through storage and launch to final assembly, Kyiv has shown that every stage is vulnerable and that distance no longer guarantees protection.

Overall, the strikes have made Shaheds far costlier for Russia, forcing it to defend supply routes and factories across thousands of kilometers. Moscow must disperse scarce air defenses, reroute shipments from Iran, and absorb the loss of production facilities that cannot easily be replaced. Each strike weakens Russia’s ability to sustain mass drone attacks, proving that Ukrainian drones can strike accurately across Russia’s depth.

In a war of attrition, this balance matters: the further Ukraine can strike into Russian territory, the less Moscow can count on Iranian drones to sustain its pressure campaign.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war

Today, there are interesting updates from the Sumy direction. Here, the Ukrainian command has executed a deadly plan to not only stop the Russian offensive into Sumy Oblast once and for all but also to destroy as many enemy forces as possible. After retaking the initiative and starting to dictate the pace, the Ukrainians began to slowly finish off the Russian units left in the region without supplies.

Russian lines in the Sumy sector are collapsing at a rapid pace, with Ukraine inflicting one of the most decisive defeats on the Russian offensive since the war began.

The chain reaction started when Ukrainian forces destroyed a key bridge near Yunakivka. This bridge was critical for Russian mobility, serving as a potential route for flanking Ukrainian positions. With it gone, Russian troops found themselves trapped in unfavorable positions, stripped of the ability to maneuver and flank or encircle Ukrainian forces. Since the bridge’s destruction, Russian units have failed to make any meaningful advances in the area, leaving them exposed and increasingly vulnerable to Ukrainian countermeasures.

Ukrainian fire control dismantles Russian supply lines

The second factor accelerating the Russian collapse is Ukraine’s strict fire control over Russian ground lines of communication. Every Russian supply route is under lethal Ukrainian surveillance, followed by precise artillery, drones, and aviation strikes. With Russians forced to move on foot and lacking armored vehicles to protect their advances, reinforcement and resupply became nearly impossible.

This allowed the Ukrainians to effectively split the Russian force grouping in two. And because Ukrainian planes had taken out the bridge, Russians could not use it to outflank the Ukrainians as they dealt with the smaller force grouping first.

The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that fire control zones now effectively block Russian logistics, evacuation routes, and reinforcement corridors, leaving isolated Russian positions to shrink under relentless pressure.

Key Ukrainian advantages in Sumy

• Destruction of critical Russian bridge near Yunakivka.
• Fire control zones making supply and evacuation impossible.
• Precision artillery and FPV drones targeting regrouping attempts.
• Russian forces split into smaller, isolated groupings.

Russian command shattered by general’s wounding

In response to the worsening situation, the Russian high command attempted to stabilize the front by dispatching a high-ranking general to reorganize defenses, but this plan backfired quickly.

Ukrainian reconnaissance spotted and ambushed the Russian command column moving through Kursk Oblast, destroying multiple vehicles and striking senior leadership. Among those targeted was Lieutenant General Abachev, who was gravely wounded in the attack. Intelligence sources confirm that he was evacuated to Moscow, where doctors amputated his arm and leg. The loss of such a high-ranking officer in the middle of a crisis further cripples Russia’s ability to coordinate, delaying its already faltering attempts to restore cohesion to the frontline.

Ukrainian advances toward Kindrativka and Oleksiivka

With the smaller Russian foothold in the northwest steadily collapsing, Ukrainian forces can soon start pressing toward the larger concentration of Russian troops northeast of Sumy, striking from multiple flanks. Russian military bloggers admit that the loss of Kindrativka marked a turning point, as Ukrainian units are pressing deeper, spearheaded by special operation forces and backed by waves of FPV drones that shred Russian positions and prevent any attempt to regroup.

Geolocated Ukrainian footage confirms operations by at least a dozen different units, including artillery crews executing pinpoint strikes, grenade launcher operators engaging entrenched enemy troops, and soldiers conducting both precision attacks and disruptive raids behind enemy lines. Fighting around Oleksiivka has intensified, with Russian analysts conceding that Ukrainian advances are impossible to halt under current conditions.

Evidence of Ukrainian multi-unit operations

• Artillery crews carrying out pinpoint strikes.
• Grenade launcher teams targeting entrenched troops.
• FPV drone operators eliminating Russian positions.
• Special forces conducting disruptive raids behind enemy lines.

Russian logistics in ruins

Reports indicate that Russian logistics have completely broken down, with food and ammunition unable to reach frontline troops, with supply drops from Russian drones rare and in between. In just the northwest sector, Russian losses in the last days are estimated at 334 killed and more than 550 wounded, a catastrophic toll that has gutted local combat effectiveness.

Ukraine reverses the momentum in Sumy

Overall, Ukraine has successfully halted the Russian offensive in Sumy and reversed the momentum, as the combination of cutting supply lines, destroying critical infrastructure, and relentlessly targeting reinforcement attempts dismantled the Russian efforts piece by piece. With their ground lines of communication in ruins and their command structure shaken by leadership losses, Russian troops are being pushed into a purely defensive posture.

Reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources acknowledge that Russian forces will struggle to stop further Ukrainian advances. What was once envisioned as a bold push into Sumy has ended in defeat, leaving Ukraine in control of the battlefield initiative and Russia scrambling to contain the damage.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there is interesting news from the Lyman direction. Here, Russians press forward and are rapidly burning through their forces, attacking Ukrainians from all sides. Holding an active defense, the Ukrainian Third Army Corps is hitting back hard, denying the Russians new territory and taking advantage of their most exposed positions to make new significant territorial gains of their own.

Battle for Torske

Russian forces continue to push towards Torske from all sides, but Ukrainian defenders from the 63rd and 60th Mechanized Brigades are defending proactively. They are preventing the enemy from consolidating or entrenching inside the settlement by targeting Russians during their deployment to the frontline.

Drone strikes and destroyed BMPs

In the nearby Serebryanski Forest, Russian troops have pushed deeper through its natural cover to move into Torske by maintaining as small a profile as possible and crawling past Ukrainian positions at night. However, the Russians failed to stay undetected throughout the day, and geolocated footage shows a Ukrainian tank firing at close range into their positions in the ruins of the settlement. The infiltrators tried to seek cover in the trees but were followed by the armored vehicle and eliminated with another series of devastating shots.

In another engagement involving rarely seen armored vehicles, Ukrainian FPV drone operators destroyed two Russian BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles near Terny, trying to deploy assault groups to attack Torske from the north. Both vehicles became immobilized after hitting mines, and their surviving crew members and dismounted infantry were subsequently eliminated.

Impact of this engagement

• The loss of both BMPs and their crews halted any momentum the Russians hoped to build in that direction.
• It underscores the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare in neutralizing even heavily armored targets before they can influence the battle.

Ukrainian command strategy

While Torske holds some tactical value, the Ukrainian command has made it clear they will not sacrifice their men to defend it at all costs. A mobile and active defensive posture is essential, prioritizing the lives of soldiers and maintaining the combat capabilities of brigades over clinging to a single defense line.

Russian weakness on the Zherebets River

Along the Russian bridgehead across the Zherebets River, the situation is very different. The Russians are overextended, and their most vulnerable positions are constantly under heavy Ukrainian fire without Russian artillery being able to respond without exposing itself on the bank. Russian soldiers have to move 15 kilometers on foot at a crawling pace to avoid immediate detection by Ukrainian drones, making any reinforcement attempts costly, slow, and any rapid response impossible.

Recapture of Ridkodub

Due to this, Ukrainians were able to conduct a counterattack and exploit the enemy’s weaknesses. Fighters from various brigades within the Third Army Corps recently recaptured Ridkodub, striking precisely where Russian forces were most exposed.

Geolocated first-person footage shows Ukrainian assault troops moving through tree lines and clearing them of forward enemy positions before moving into the rural buildings of the village. Videos from several different soldiers show in detail how the Ukrainian operators clear basement after basement, being guided in real time by drone operators and their officers in field headquarters. After killing, wounding, and capturing dozens of Russian soldiers, the Ukrainians take various enemy documents and weapons as intel and trophies and secure the area.

Key elements of the operation

• Use of a ground drone system to deliver ammunition and supplies to soldiers at night.
• Evacuation of a wounded comrade on the drone’s return trip, highlighting the adaptability of Ukrainian air and ground drone tactics.

Ridkodub is now fully cleared of Russian presence. Given the logistical difficulties for Russian forces — needing to move artillery, drones, and infantry across the river while avoiding constant Ukrainian surveillance — the enemy advance here has to start from scratch.

Ukraine retains the initiative

Overall, Ukrainian forces in the Lyman sector are solving their issues by not only conducting active defense and efficiently absorbing Russian attacks but also reclaiming ground whenever opportunities are created. This takes the initiative away from the Russians and prevents them from making gains in the area.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there is a lot of news from the Sumy direction. Here, Ukrainian forces in the sector have seized the initiative, moving from a defensive posture to a broad counteroffensive that is steadily reshaping the frontline. The momentum shift is allowing Ukrainian units to dictate the pace of battle, breaking down Russian cohesion and allowing elite enemy forces to be encircled.

Ukrainian advances near villages

Recently, Ukrainian forces started successfully advancing near:

• Kindrativka
• Andriivka
• Oleksiivka
• Yablunivka
• Yunakivka

They have been supported by a series of air strikes against Russian concentrations of forces and effective disruption of enemy reinforcement attempts, with the Russians trying to cross a local lake being targeted by drones.

Russian defensive failures

A Russian military analyst embedded with Russian forces in this sector reported that Russians are suffering from glaring issues with defensive cohesion:

• Fire coordination is ineffective against Ukrainian assaults.
• Requested reinforcements often never arrive.
• Counterattacks are delayed by several days.

Ukrainian commanders are exploiting these weaknesses with precision, forcing Russians into a defensive posture they cannot maintain.

Close-range battle in the forest

Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian special forces approach a Russian position in the forest at close range, offering seven enemy soldiers the opportunity to surrender. They refused and were eliminated in the ensuing firefight, and while clearing the area, inaccurate Russian mortar fire only came down after the Russian soldiers were already eliminated, wounding one soldier who was quickly evacuated and survived his wounds. Enemy documents, weapons, and other equipment were seized, further allowing Ukrainians to take advantage of the collapse of Russian military organization.

Encirclement at Sadky

Nowhere was this more evident than at Sadky, where Ukrainian forces managed to encircle elements of the 51st VDV Brigade, a supposedly elite airborne formation that should not be prone to such breakdowns. Sadky itself remains under Ukrainian control, but reports indicate that Russian soldiers have been trapped and eliminated in the nearby forest spanning 15 square kilometers.

Structural Russian weaknesses

These events are not an isolated failure, but a symptom of a deeper, structural problem within the Russian military in the area. Russia’s operational mindset, long focused on continuous offensives, appears to have eroded its ability to mount an effective defense. In pursuit of gains during the summer offensive, Russian commanders committed vast reserves of armor and manpower, leaving little left to plug gaps when momentum stalled.

Exhausted Russian infantry

The fighting in Kursk was particularly costly: armored vehicles were destroyed in huge numbers, forcing Russia to rely on infantry, motorcycles, and small assault teams. Now in Sumy, most Russian soldiers move on foot, taking them days to reach the frontline, and they can’t respond effectively when Ukrainians attack.

Additionally, North Korean troops were annihilated by Ukrainian cluster munitions 200 soldiers at a time, and the Russian infantry that remains is exhausted, making the Russian Sumy front thinly manned and dangerously vulnerable.

Reinforcements from 810th Naval Infantry Brigade

Faced with this unfolding crisis, Russian command has attempted to reinforce the sector with a battalion from the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, tasked with stabilizing Kindrativka. Yet this solution may only compound the problem, as this Russian brigade suffered devastating losses during the Kursk battles and is now believed to be operating at only 35 to 45% of its nominal combat strength.

Rather than deploying a cohesive, intact battalion, the likely reality is a composite force cobbled together from remnants of different units, a halfhearted measure that further undermines cohesion and interoperability. While these reinforcements may slow Ukrainian advances temporarily, they lack the depth and organization to mount a meaningful defense.

Strategic outlook

Overall, in Sumy Oblast, the narrative has shifted entirely, and what began as a Ukrainian defensive effort has evolved into offensive momentum that is dismantling Russian positions piece by piece. For Russia, the situation is a bitter reversal, as it was just weeks ago that President Vladimir Putin himself issued aggressive statements about pushing into Sumy and even threatening the regional capital.

Without fresh reserves or a radical change in operational approach, Russia is poised to lose even more ground and with it, any lingering credibility in its ability to threaten the city of Sumy again. Ukrainian defensive plans not only absorbed the initial Russian pressure but have now turned the tide, enabling methodical counterattacks that are pushing Russian forces back across the sector.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, the biggest news comes from the southern Russian flank. Russian forces were put on high alert because Armenia and Azerbaijan, enemies through decades of war, are now preparing to sign a peace deal that could transform their contested border into a joint lifeline for security. This sudden alignment is not born of friendship, but of the shared enemy that Russia has become.

Washington meeting lays groundwork for peace

Recently, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Washington, where they signed a preliminary agreement that could serve as the foundation for a final peace deal. The memorandum outlines:

• Mutual recognition of sovereignty
• Renunciation of territorial claims
• Demilitarization of the border
• Creation of the Zangezur Corridor, linking Azerbaijan to its exclave through Armenia

The Zangezur corridor: a strategic game-changer

The Zangezur Corridor will remain under Armenian sovereignty but be operated by a US-led private military company. This arrangement oversees energy lines and road networks, combining infrastructure development with third-party security.

For both nations, this signals the most substantive break from decades of hostility since the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict began.

Decades of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought bitterly since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with two wars and recurring clashes costing tens of thousands of lives.

• The conflict centered on control of an Armenian-majority enclave in Azerbaijan.
• After victories in 2020 and 2023, Azerbaijan ended Armenia’s military presence, dissolving the enclave and reclaiming all territories.

This new peace deal effectively closes the chapter on the territorial dispute.

Armenia’s pivot away from Russia

For Armenia, the agreement marks a dramatic shift away from failed Russian security guarantees. Once reliant on Moscow through the CSTO and Russian troops in Gyumri, Armenia watched Russia remain passive during conflicts in 2020 and 2023.

Armenia fears both a “Syrian scenario”, where foreign forces exploit Russia’s weakness, and a “Georgian scenario”, where Russian troops seize control. By anchoring a US-managed corridor, Armenia secures deterrence and Western economic interest.

Azerbaijan’s strategic insulation from Moscow

Azerbaijan also sees the deal as liberation from Moscow’s interference. Russian actions—such as the missile strike on its embassy in Kyiv and the downing of Azerbaijani aircraft—have deepened mistrust.

With the Zangezur Corridor under US oversight, Azerbaijan gains:

• Direct link to Türkiye and allies
• Strategic insulation from Russian troops
• Predictable transit revenues and trade integration

US-led corridor as de facto peacekeeping force

The private military company managing the corridor could serve as a peacekeeping mechanism, embedding economic and security guarantees.

Any disruption would harm both countries’ economies and Western interests, creating a mutual incentive for stability.

A new balance of power in the South Caucasus

This is more than a symbolic handshake. The peace deal is a strategic realignment that:

• Resolves a decades-old dispute
• Weakens Russia’s influence in the region
• Anchors Armenia and Azerbaijan closer to the West

If finalized, it could reshape the balance of power in the South Caucasus in ways Moscow can no longer afford to control.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, the biggest news comes from Belarus. President Alexander Lukashenko has openly warned his population to prepare for war, with new brigades being mobilized on the border and the groundwork being laid for rapid mobilization.

In his television address, Lukashenko told Belarusians to prepare for war and difficult times ahead, pushing through legal amendments that would allow martial law and authorize full-scale mobilization far more easily.

New brigades and military mobilization

Concrete moves on the ground are matching this warning. Belarus is forming a new full special operations brigade in Homel, within striking distance of Ukraine’s northern flank.

The brigade is set to receive Russia’s new Oreshnik ballistic missiles alongside advanced air defense and reconnaissance systems, supplementing existing Iskander launchers. This gives Belarus long-range and even nuclear strike capabilities.

Possible invasion scenarios

If Belarus enters the conflict, two main scenarios are in play:

• Northern Front Invasion: A direct push into western Ukraine to sever land supply routes from Poland and NATO states, cutting off Western arms and isolating Ukrainian forces in the east.
• Chernihiv Offensive: A renewed attempt along the 60-kilometer highway to Chernihiv, which Russia tried and failed to take in 2022. Belarusian reinforcements could increase pressure on stretched Ukrainian forces.

Northern Ukraine’s forested terrain would favor Belarusian special forces, making the new brigade a looming warning sign.

Suwalki gap and NATO risks

The second daring scenario is an operation toward the Suwalki Gap, the narrow stretch of land between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.

Capturing or threatening this corridor would connect Russian and Belarusian forces, splitting NATO’s eastern flank in two.

Notably, a Russian reconnaissance drone recently violated Lithuanian airspace over Vilnius before crashing in a Lithuanian army training ground—suggesting surveillance of NATO infrastructure.

Zapad 2025 military exercises

These potential escalations coincide with the upcoming Zapad 2025 drills between Russia and Belarus, scheduled for September.

Previous Zapad exercises were used to disguise preparations for real operations—most notably in 2021, which set the stage for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine one month later. Reports already show troop redeployments to training areas that could double as staging grounds.

NATO’s response

The West is taking notice. Germany has redeployed Eurofighter jets to Poland, stationing them east of Warsaw to reinforce NATO’s air policing mission.

Officials emphasize this is a defensive move in direct response to the Zapad drills, meant to strengthen deterrence without escalating to full-scale deployment.

The most serious escalation in years

Overall, Belarus’s preparations mark the most serious escalation on Ukraine’s northern border in over two years.

With Lukashenko’s rhetoric, new nuclear-capable systems, and sweeping legal changes, Minsk is setting the stage for open participation in the war. Whether aiming to cut Ukraine’s western lifelines or challenge NATO directly, the attack could come suddenly and with the element of surprise.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Day 1271

On 17 August, the biggest news comes from the Pokrovsk direction.

The Azov army corps has taken up full operational control over stabilizing the Russian breakthrough at Pokrovsk. With the situation reaching critical levels and threatening to overturn a year of Ukraine’s fortification work, Azov and its battalions are immediately getting to work on smashing the Russian salient back across the river.

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As Russians took Ukrainians by surprise, they broke through 18 kilometers deep behind the Ukrainian front line and penetrated through Ukraine’s new Donbas defense line while it was unmanned. However, as the reality of the situation got through to the Ukrainian high command, they acted quickly and redeployed Ukraine’s 1^st national guard army corps, led by the famed Azov brigade at its head. The Russian salient is deep but narrow, enough so that it could be pincered, cut off from reinforcements, and destroyed if the Azov corps was up to the task.

The recently redeployed forces immediately got to work, as the first step was to prevent the Russians from expanding their salient, allowing them to entrench and threaten Ukrainian logistics further on an operational scale. Open source military analysts show that the 1^st Da Vinci assault regiment attacked the Russian breakthrough head-on, and during the first day of clashes, they were able to blunt the spearhead and push the Russians back to Zolotyi Kolodiaz. Recent reports from various Russian, Ukrainian, and Western military analysts now show that they conducted a follow-up operation the next day, and pushed Russians out of the settlement and are overrunning Russian positions up to 4 kilometers below; recapturing the New Donbas Defense line in the process.

Further south along the thin Russian salient, elements of the Azov brigade launched rapid counterattacks on the Russians’ left flank, as the 93^rd mechanized brigade assaulted the Russians from the east. Satellite data shows numerous impact craters of Russian aviation glide bombs all over both sides of the salient, the locations of which indicate the Ukrainian attack was very successful and resulted in the capture of Kutuzivka, with prominent Russian and Ukrainian sources noting Ukrainians have fully encircled the Russians in two separate pockets.

Possibly realizing their goals were becoming too ambitious, Russians attempted an offshoot maneuver between Rodynske and Bilytske, hoping to at least achieve an operational encirclement of Pokrovsk as their larger breakthrough was faltering.

However, Azov quickly responded to this maneuver as well, rapidly cutting off the Russian axis of advance and eliminating dozens of Russian soldiers.

Command of the Azov units reports that in the past several days of fighting, the 1^st Army Corps has eliminated 271 Russian soldiers, wounded over 101, and has taken 13 Russian men as prisoners of war. Geolocated combat footage shows Ukrainian drones dropping grenades on Russian soldiers in fields and captured Ukrainian-made fortifications, fiber optic FPV’s eliminating Russians in houses and around the settlements, and four young Russian men having been taken prisoner after immediately surrendering to Ukrainian forces once the counterattacks commenced.

Notably, while Russians have crossed the Kazenyi Torets River, they did not take control of any major river crossings or a particularly wide base to transfer manpower and logistics over. Therefore, Russian sources report that Ukraine’s highly mobile drone detachments have now focused their fire on the base of the Russian salient at the river.

Russian analysts note they have completely lost control over this area, as Ukrainians have now officially and effectively cut off the Russian breakthrough through drone fire control, without having to expend any manpower to conduct a physical counterattack. Notably, Ukrainians were then able to physically move into Nykanorivka and Nove Sakhove, with the rest of the area being returned to the grey zone and under tight Ukrainian drone control.

Overall, Ukrainians have curbed the immediate threat of the Russian Dobropillia breakthrough and completed the encirclement of an estimated 800 Russian soldiers, hundreds of whom have already been eliminated in the fighting of the past few days. The Azov army corps’ decisive actions have been highly successful, blunting the Russian spearhead, pushing Russian forces away from critical supply lines, dismantling additional attempts to branch out, encircling Russians in several pockets with little cover to hide, and most importantly, clearing Russians out of the New Donbas Defense line; eliminating the operational-level threat posed by the Russian salient only days earlier.

Now, Ukrainians are poised to finish the job, to completely destroy what remains of the already brutalized Russian soldiers.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, the biggest news comes from Azerbaijan, where a sudden escalation shattered regional stability as Russian airstrikes targeted and destroyed key Azerbaijani state oil infrastructure in Ukraine. In response, Türkiye signaled its readiness to deploy forces to Azerbaijan, setting the stage for a large-scale rebalancing of power in the South Caucasus.

Calls for permanent Turkish troop presence in Azerbaijan

In Azerbaijan, calls are growing for Turkish troops to serve as permanent peacekeepers and security guarantors against any future Russian move. The idea gained momentum after an Azerbaijani journalist asked President Recep Tayyip Erdogan when the Turkish Army would come to Azerbaijan, noting that without it, there is always the risk of a new Russian occupation.

Azerbaijanis argue that Turkish soldiers are the ultimate deterrent to Moscow, as Russia continues moving additional troops toward the Azerbaijani border and reinforcing its bases in Armenia, despite Armenian protests.

Türkiye’s military footprint already expanding

Turkish special forces and advisors already rotate through Azerbaijani units, and the private military company Sadat has an established presence. But the current push is for a permanent, full-scale Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan.

By shaping public debate in both countries, Ankara is testing the waters for permanent deployment — a move that would complicate any Russian military action in the Caucasus.

Azerbaijan breaks with Soviet military systems

At the same time, Azerbaijan is breaking with Soviet traditions. President Ilham Aliyev has ordered a full switch from Russia’s military coordinate grid system to the US-developed World Geodetic System (WGS), the NATO standard.

This removes one of the last major Russian frameworks still embedded in Azerbaijani defense planning. By adopting it, Azerbaijan can now ensure seamless interoperability with Turkish and allied forces, sharing targeting data and reconnaissance instantly without conversion delays.

Strategic signal: Preparing for potential conflict with Russia

The technical shift carries a clear strategic signal: Azerbaijan is aligning its military infrastructure with the West, removing dependency on Russian systems in wartime.

This strengthens the case for permanent Turkish troop deployments, ensuring both forces could operate jointly from day one.

Russia strikes SOCAR facilities in Ukraine

The sharpest warning came after Russian missile and drone strikes destroyed facilities of SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, in Ukraine.

In response, Baku threatened to go beyond humanitarian and defensive support — raising the possibility of sending weapons directly to Ukraine.

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Azerbaijan’s potential arms supplies to Ukraine

Notably, the Baku-based Avia-Agregat plant began producing 122mm and 155mm artillery shells in 2022, using Turkish and Bulgarian production lines. These are exactly the munitions Ukraine urgently needs.

If Baku scales up deliveries, it would mark a geopolitical turning point: a former Russian ally openly arming Ukraine, signaling Moscow’s deepening isolation.

Russia’s provocations risk backfiring

By striking SOCAR assets, Russia risks provoking a stronger Azerbaijani military role in Ukraine, one that Baku could pursue without fear if Turkish peacekeepers are deployed in the region.

From energy strikes to strategic realignment

What began as targeted strikes on energy facilities is now feeding into a broader realignment:

• Azerbaijan seeks Turkish troop deployments.
• It is embedding NATO systems into its military.
• And it is considering weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

Each step directly counters Moscow’s provocations and further isolates Russia.

Conclusion: A risky gamble for the Kremlin

The irony is clear: by hitting SOCAR in Ukraine, Russia may have accelerated trends already underway, turning Azerbaijan into an active security partner for both Türkiye and Ukraine.

In trying to punish Baku, the Kremlin could instead push it firmly into the opposing camp, with consequences far beyond the oil sector.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there is dangerous news from the Pokrovsk direction. Here, the Russians pushed their breakthrough on the eastern flank in a surprise direction, putting the new Ukrainian Donbas defense line to the northwest in critical danger before it could be manned. With the gap already exploited by the enemy, the Ukrainian command now has a brief window to fix the situation by redeploying its most lethal unit, the Azov Brigade.

Shift from Avdiivka playbook

After the initial Russian push on the eastern flank, the expectation was that Russian forces would try to repeat their Avdiivka playbook, encircling Pokrovsk from the east through a slow tightening of the flanks. Instead, Russian commanders made a sharper and bolder move, as they identified a thinly held section of the Ukrainian line to the north and rushed it before proper defense and coordination could be established.

Threat to newly built Donbas defense line

The push was aimed not only at threatening Pokrovsk but also at undermining the newly constructed Donbas defense line, a layered system of trenches, fortified points, and natural barriers designed to slow attackers until drone operators and mobile reserves could respond.

Over several days, Russian forces advanced between Shakhove and Dobropillia, using infiltration tactics to seize or contest multiple settlements. Russian troops used the tree lines to infiltrate the settlements, where they began building up forces. They pushed into several of them, making gains and breaking through at almost 13 kilometers deep in around 3 to 4 days. Alarmingly, they then pressed forward and bypassed the newly built heavy fortifications with ease while they were unmanned, threatening to turn these strongpoints against Ukrainian defenders.

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Russians press toward strategic highway

Now, they are attempting to entrench near Novovodiane, pressing toward the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway. This advance was in part made possible by a breakdown in Ukrainian coordination. Although the Armed Forces have largely overcome past issues with communication and transparency, in this most critical sector of the frontline the old weakness resurfaced.

Breakdown in Ukrainian coordination

Commanders from one brigade reported to higher headquarters that the situation was under control, claiming that all enemy forces had been neutralized, even as soldiers on the ground urgently reported ongoing Russian infiltration and force buildup. A shortage of manpower meant that even well-prepared defensive positions were left under-defended, while the integrated response, combining drones, artillery, and aviation, failed to be deployed with the speed and cohesion required to stop the enemy advance.

Russian disinformation and recon failures

Government-linked Russian analysts publicly downplayed the gains, calling them reconnaissance and infiltration operations, not a breakthrough, further playing into the Ukrainian underestimation of the Russian threat. But in reality, once the gap was found, the Russian command sent actual assault forces, not just small sabotage teams. This also reveals a failure of Ukrainian reconnaissance and intelligence, as if drone surveillance here had been sufficiently layered and constant, such movements would likely have been detected and targeted long before they reached such dangerous depth.

Azov brigade redeployed to Pokrovsk

The urgency of the situation is underscored by a public letter from a prominent Azov Brigade commander to President Zelenskyy. He warned that once the Russians take control of Ukraine’s defensive structures, removing them will be close to impossible. The only viable response is an immediate pincer maneuver to cut off the spearhead from reinforcement, followed by a clearing operation.

Yet such a counterattack is risky, as the Russian command almost certainly anticipates it and may be setting a trap. Still, the alternative of letting the Russians dig in further could be far worse, so timing will decide everything. A swift, coordinated counteroffensive while the Russians are still consolidating could succeed, but hesitation would all but guarantee long-term loss of the area.

As a result of the danger, the Azov Brigade has now been redeployed to the Pokrovsk sector, indicating the Ukrainian high command’s intent to act decisively, as the stakes extend far beyond Pokrovsk.

Strategic and political stakes

The Russian gains threaten not just the town but the broader Donbas defense line and multiple settlements in the Ukrainian-controlled part of Donetsk Oblast. If unhindered, this penetration could unravel months of fortification work and open the way for deeper Russian advances.

The timing is also politically charged, as the breakthrough comes just days before the announced Putin–Trump meeting in Alaska, adding haste to Ukraine’s need to stabilize the front.

Decisive days ahead

Overall, by moving one of the most experienced and feared formations into the sector of Pokrovsk, Ukraine recognizes both the danger and the need to correct earlier mistakes and failures. The coming days will be decisive, as if Ukrainian forces can seal off and destroy the Russian spearhead, they will not only save Pokrovsk but also preserve the integrity of the Donbas defense system.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Here, the Russian command is increasing the use of suicide squads to try to infiltrate Pokrovsk and reach its outskirts. With the Ukrainian defense on high alert, 80% of the Russians are destroyed even before reaching the town, with deceived migrants and forcibly mobilized Ukrainian separatists being thrown into the meat grinder as cannon fodder and acceptable casualties.

Russian forces recently attempted one of their most ambitious infiltration missions yet to penetrate Pokrovsk from the south. Using Pishchane as a forward base, the Russian command formed three tactical groups of 50 men each, tasked with sabotage inside the city. Their goal was to sow panic behind the frontline and force Ukrainian units to abandon positions, as has happened in other settlements along the front.

The infiltration route took 14 days in total: four to reach Pishchane’s industrial zone used as a launch point, and another ten to creep towards the main streets in southern Pokrovsk. Moving roughly 600 meters per day to avoid detection, they relied on drone drops for food, water, and communication updates. 

Despite careful coordination, camouflage ponchos, and preloaded route trackers, Ukrainian drones intercepted and eliminated most of the saboteurs, as of the original 150 infiltrators, around 120 were killed before even reaching their objectives as confirmed by geolocated footage. 

The remainder were hunted down inside the city, with Ukrainian units releasing more footage of how some of the Russians surrendered, while others were eliminated in close combat.

The cost to Russia was staggering, as the operation incurred roughly 80% casualties just to reach Pokrovsk, not counting those later captured or killed after arrival. While a handful of infiltrators ambushed Ukrainian units, the mission failed to achieve its operational aim. 

The Ukrainian Defense Forces not only retained control but also captured dozens of enemy troops. Fighters of Ukraine’s 425th Skala Separate Assault Regiment took 32 prisoners over a week of clearing operations alone. Video evidence from the town shows Russian infiltrators being cleared from buildings and hiding spots, their weapons seized as trophies.

Yet such attritional losses have not dissuaded Russian commanders. On the eastern flank of Pokrovsk, where fighting is intensifying, Moscow is preparing more expendable suicide squads. An entire brigade here is being staffed with deceived migrants from Central Asia and Donetsk People’s Republic volunteers, most of whom are forcibly mobilized men from Russian-controlled Donetsk. 

These units, poorly trained and often unwilling, are tasked with advancing toward Pokrovsk’s eastern outskirts to overwhelm defenses through sheer numbers. Since 2014, many DNR formations have been filled with marginalized individuals and criminals, commanded by Russian officers. 

Now, this volatile mix is being hurled into the bloodiest sector of the front with minimal expectation of survival, with these migrants and separatists being seen as expendable by Russian command.

The brutality extends up the chain of command, as reports from Russian military analysts indicate that separatist officers who question orders or show reluctance to sacrifice their men in large numbers often simply disappear. 

Two battalion commanders in the so-called DNR’s 5th Brigade went missing in five days after being summoned by superiors. In one case, the wife of a vanished commander was told he had run away, but no further contact has been made. Such disappearances serve as a warning: obedience is enforced through fear, and dissent is erased without a trace.

Overall, despite the chaos these infiltration attempts cause for the defenders, the general picture in Pokrovsk remains in Ukraine’s favor. The destruction of the southern sabotage groups, combined with the capture of surviving infiltrators, shows that the Russian command is gambling everything for even minor symbolic gains in Pokrovsk.

With success rates near zero, and casualty rates between 80 and 100%, these operations are less about achieving breakthroughs and more about demonstrating activity to higher political leadership. Ukrainian forces remain on high alert, aware that similar infiltration patterns are now being tested from the east. 

For now, Pokrovsk holds, but the Russians appear willing to keep feeding cannon fodder into the grinder in a desperate bid to change that, regardless of the human cost.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

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Today, there are important updates from the Pokrovsk direction. Here, on the eastern flank, the Russian forces conducted a massive push to cut off Ukrainian supply lines to Pokrovsk and starve out the defenders. However, Russians quickly got stuck in fortifications that guard the back of the Ukrainian defense line, with intense close-quarters battles breaking out.

Russia shifts focus to encircle Pokrovsk from the east

In the latest adjustment of their summer offensive, Russian forces are now concentrating their efforts on encircling Pokrovsk from the east. Despite being initially promising, the failed encirclement efforts from the west and unsuccessful infiltration attempts from the south were both successfully pushed back by Ukrainian defenders.

Ukrainians stall momentum but face new pressure on the eastern flank

Ukrainians improved their tactical standing, stalling further enemy momentum, which changed Russia’s strategy toward targeting logistics on the western flank. However, the same cannot be said for the eastern flank. After making headway there, Russian forces rapidly shifted their focus to this sector, capitalizing on their momentum to push deeper and reach the strategically vital settlement of Rodynske.

Rodynske emerges as a strategic target

Their objective is now clear: cut supply lines, threaten Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad from behind, and force the Ukrainian defense into a semi-encircled position. Rodynske has emerged as a focal point in Russia’s operational plan due to its position directly behind Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which allows it to serve as a logistical and tactical keystone for both towns. Capturing it would open a dangerous axis of advance from the rear, collapsing supply routes and placing additional pressure on Ukrainian units holding the line.

Russian reinforcements and urban warfare in Rodynske

Recognizing this, Russian commanders are pouring reinforcements into the area, prioritizing the capture of the dense urban environment of Rodynske, which would offer both protection for troop concentrations and ideal conditions for the launch of drone operations. If secured, Russian drone teams positioned in Rodynske could launch strikes with ease across a 15 to 25 kilometer radius, hitting key Ukrainian staging areas and logistical hubs.

Threat to Hryshyne and high ground control

If we look at the topographic map, we can see that the immediate threat could easily extend west toward Hryshyne, which sits in a lowland and would be vulnerable to attack. Additionally, this would allow the Russians to gain access to the same high ground that Pokrovsk is sitting on and would open up attack routes directly from behind.

Fierce battles on the eastern approaches

For now, however, the main Russian effort remains squarely focused on breaking Ukrainian resistance in Rodynske. The fierce battle for the settlement has already begun, with high-intensity engagements playing out on its eastern approaches. Geolocated combat footage paints a clear picture of the fighting, as in one clip, a Ukrainian marine fires an AT-4 grenade launcher at point-blank range into an underground cellar where Russian soldiers had holed up in. After the explosion had opened up the underground area, a Vampire hexacopter was then able to drop a heavy mine from above, obliterating the Russian position.

Drone strikes and close-quarters combat

Elsewhere, the Starfall unit of the 14th Operational Brigade of Ukraine’s National Guard is shown operating east of Rodynske, targeting Russian troops hiding near a mine with drone-dropped explosives to stop their advance.

More particularly brutal GoPro footage captures two Ukrainian soldiers responding to signs of an enemy presence. Calm and calculated, they discover two Russian assault troops hiding in a cellar. Speaking fluent Russian, the Ukrainians momentarily confuse the intruders before eliminating them with grenades tossed inside. The same team later clears a nearby house, eliminates the Russian soldiers inside, and seizes a captured assault rifle.

Pokrovsk remains the hottest frontline sector

Overall, Pokrovsk remains the hottest section of the frontline and the focal point of Russia’s summer campaign. The Russians are determined to establish a foothold in the paved neighborhoods before the fall rains make any approach on soft ground impossible, and their pivot to the east has already yielded dangerous momentum.

Rodynske’s defense could decide the fate of Pokrovsk

Yet this shift is now being met with fierce Ukrainian resistance centered on Rodynske, quickly growing to be of extreme importance. Its defense is about protecting the entire Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad sector from collapse, as if Rodynske falls, the door to encirclement opens. For now, however, Ukrainian forces are holding, fighting from house to house, and striking back with every tool available. The battle is far from over, but the outcome in Rodynske may well decide the fate of Pokrovsk.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are a lot of updates regarding the Russian Navy. 

Recently, it’s been a bad few days for the Russian Navy, as the Ukrainian campaign has been reinforced by nature and even the Russians’ own incompetence. 

Spanning from the Black Sea and St. Petersburg to the Far East, Russian naval power and projection is falling apart at the seams.

Russia officially scraps Admiral Kuznetsov after years of failed repairs

The biggest news is that after years of repairs and accidents, Russians officially lost their last aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov. The massive ship has now been decommissioned and is to be scrapped for parts. 

The main reason for this is that the ship spent most of its service life in port and under repairs, and the ability of the Russian military to maintain an expensive and very vulnerable aircraft carrier has disappeared. Western naval analysts joke that when the boat was not on fire, the massive smoke plume from its diesel exhaust made it seem like it was.

Most notably, the aircraft that make up its air wings are no longer in production, and due to the ramp on the flight deck putting too high a strain on the front gears, if the weight was too high, their fuel load and therefore operational range were already largely limited.

The list of incidents during its service is also long, with a few notable examples being the approximately 300,000 ton oil spill onto the Irish coast, five of its jets crashing into the ocean during operations as the arresting wires kept snapping, or they simply ran out of fuel, and several crew members dying because of the water filtration system’s failure during its maiden voyage. 

Kamchatka earthquake devastates Russian Pacific submarine bases

The bad days continue, as one of the largest earthquakes in recent history caused a tsunami to sweep along Russia’s far eastern shores.

Recently released satellite footage shows extensive damage to Russia’s two main naval bases here, one of which houses a large part of Russia’s nuclear submarine fleet, with the submarines visibly missing from the photos and possibly under repair.

Additionally, the Russian Academy of Sciences reports that the southern part of Kamchatka shifted two whole meters to the southeast as a result of the earthquake, causing speculations of much larger damage to Russian naval facilities not visible from satellite footage.

Ukraine obtains classified plans for Russia’s newest nuclear submarine

Russia’s nuclear submarine fleet then took another hit, as Ukrainian military intelligence revealed it had obtained a full set of classified documents and schematics on Russia’s newest strategic nuclear submarine, the Project 955 Aborey class. 

They released some of them online and stated that the classified documents include information about the submarine’s survivability systems, which entered service just over three weeks ago.

Ukrainian military intelligence also made a statement, saying they had already identified several weak points in the Russian sub right before Zelenskyy authorized a new series of covert operations. The details of which remain unknown. 

Single Ukrainian drone forces Russia to cancel Navy Day celebrations

Lastly, during Navy Day, celebrating the temporary existence and history of Russia’s fleets,

as well as its specialized naval infantry units currently fighting in Ukraine. Russian warships from all four Russian fleets were scheduled to hold a parade and gun salutes through the harbor of St. Petersburg, as well as air shows and ground troops conducting displays on land.

However, the parade and all its surrounding events were canceled due to safety concerns, as a single Ukrainian Liutyi drone was spotted flying over Leningrad Oblast.

As there were no reports of any confirmed hits, Ukrainians likely simply decided to fly a drone in the general vicinity and let Russia cancel the parade themselves, unable to intercept a possible threat from the skies.

Russian naval decline accelerates across Pacific and Baltic theaters

Overall, the loss of their only carrier is significant, as these types of ships allow a navy to exert strong military influence and capabilities on a global scale.

Extensive damage to its military bases and possibly also vessels on the Pacific coast results in a serious deterioration of both its regional influence and strategic deterrence capabilities. 

Ukraine having found weaknesses in the new Russian submarine’s defenses through classified documents and the news of additional covert operations being in the works only exacerbates this effect. 

With Russia’s global dominance already increasingly deteriorating, and parades meant to counteract this trend are being called off, this is another strong hit to Russian military geopolitical relevance, as more pressure is shifted onto the already strained Russian ground-based assets.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Russian federation. 

Here, Ukraine continued its own version of sanctions by successfully hitting Russia’s main Central Asian gas pipeline. This puts not only Russia’s influence in Asia under threat but also stops the work of some of its most important military factories due to the lack of resources.

In a bold escalation of its long-range strike campaign, Ukraine has struck one of the most critical arteries of Russia’s gas infrastructure, the Central Asia Center pipeline. Explosions rocked the Volgograd region, knocking the pipeline out of service and forcing an indefinite shutdown. 

This strategic attack, confirmed by Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, not only disrupted the gas transit but also directly affected energy supplies to multiple key military-industrial facilities across Russia, dependent on energy plants that fully receive their gas from this pipeline. 

Among those impacted are the Demikhovsky Machine-Building Plant, MiG Aircraft Corporation, and the Magnum-K ammunition factory, central players in Russia’s war machine. Local emergency crews rushed to the site as Gazprom, the pipeline operator, initiated damage assessments and repairs, halting gas flow across the region.

The Central Asia Center pipeline is a 4,000 kilometer-long linchpin in Russia’s gas export network, designed to transport gas from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan to Russia and vice versa. This pipeline is a geopolitical leverage as it enables Russia to exert influence over Central Asian energy while simultaneously channeling gas toward its own industrial needs. 

It is an important tool to keep the energy networks of Russia and the Central Asian countries interlinked and interdependent. With the Nord Stream pipelines now crippled by sabotage and geopolitical isolation, and the Power of Siberia pipeline to China bearing the full hope of Russia’s Asian gas strategy, the Central Asia Center pipeline became an even more vital fallback.

Striking it isn’t just symbolic but strategic, as Ukraine has targeted a highly vulnerable and deeply exposed piece of infrastructure. All Russian pipelines span vast, often remote terrain with limited protection, making them soft but critical targets. If Ukraine decides to repeat such attacks or target the Power of Siberia pipeline as well, the ramifications for Russia could be immense. 

Constant disruption of the lines due to the easy repetition of the strikes would undermine Russia’s ability to pivot away from lost European markets, weaken its hold on Central Asian energy dependencies, and slash billions from its energy revenue. Repeated strikes could also create logistical nightmares, reduce supply reliability, and destroy investor confidence, key levers in Russia’s geopolitical influence. As a result, Moscow would be hard-pressed to maintain energy flows even for domestic needs, let alone sustain the illusion of dominance in the global energy market.

The pressure is already prompting signs of panic in the Russian government. Reports suggest Russia may be considering a limited air ceasefire by halting drone and missile strikes in hopes of reducing the tempo of Ukrainian retaliation. 

The last month alone has seen several dozen successful Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and depots, air defense systems, railway logistics, and factories deep in Russian territory. 

With drones hitting Sochi, Ryazan, Samara, and now a strategic gas pipeline, Russia’s rear is on fire, both literally and figuratively. A temporary air truce would give Moscow the breathing room it desperately needs to regroup and reinforce, but few in Ukraine are ready to fall for this trap.

Ukrainian officials and analysts understand such a ceasefire would only pause Russia’s terror campaign, giving it time to replenish stockpiles and come back later to strike even harder. It’s a tactical ploy, and Ukraine has no reason to trust it.

Overall, the attack on the Central Asia Center pipeline marks a turning point in Ukraine’s long-range strategy. With one strike, Kyiv has exposed a critical vulnerability in Russia’s energy empire and opened the door for further precision sabotage. 

As Western sanctions grind on slowly and often without immediate impact, Ukraine is delivering its own version – swift, targeted, and devastatingly effective. Each drone strike against energy and military infrastructure does more than destroy machinery, it shatters the myth of Russian invulnerability. If Ukraine continues on this path, it may not only cripple Russia’s battlefield logistics but also bring its broader war economy to a breaking point.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Russian alliance. Here, India, a key member of the Russian BRICS alliance, surrendered to the threat of devastating US sanctions and is about to cut economic ties with Russia. The danger of a heavy economic hit had an immediate effect, putting another nail in the coffin of what was advertised by the Russians to be an alliance that would dominate world politics and economics.

Trump slaps 25% tariff, warns of 100% hike

India has dramatically folded under US economic pressure, triggered by the US imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods over New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil and military equipment. US President Donald Trump also threatened with additional penalties over this continued practice by India and mentioned that the tariffs could rise to 100% if necessary.

US trade leverage hits India’s strategic plans

The US’s announcement severely impacted India’s strategic planning, given that the United States remains India’s largest trade partner, accounting for roughly 18% of its exports, with bilateral trade totaling $186 billion in 2024 and 2025. With a $41 billion trade surplus and significant service-sector revenues at stake, India’s margins risked severe erosion if the proposed tariffs materialized.

Indian refineries stop buying Russian oil overnight

Facing the clear and immediate danger of substantial economic harm, Indian state refineries swiftly ceased all purchases of Russian crude oil. Prior to Trump’s ultimatum, India imported roughly 87.4 million tons of Russian oil annually, forming about 35% of its total crude imports, worth approximately $50.2 billion. This sudden reversal is a strategic blow to Russia, as Indian refiners—especially state-run enterprises controlling more than 60% of India’s 5.2 million barrels-per-day refining capacity—were major buyers of Russian oil.

India switches to Middle East and West African oil

Indian companies like Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum have shifted to immediate delivery markets, rapidly replacing Russian crude primarily with Middle Eastern varieties from Abu Dhabi and West Africa at an impressively quick rate. India’s abrupt reversal significantly undermines Russia’s economic position; following Europe’s embargo on Russian energy, India emerged as Russia’s single largest oil importer, acquiring around 1.8 million barrels per day at its peak. Bilateral trade between India and Russia had surged to over $65 billion in 2024, mostly fueled by oil and fertilizer sales.

BRICS vision falters as US economic power prevails

Now, with India withdrawing from major Russian oil deals, Moscow faces an imminent crisis as they must rapidly seek alternative markets. Otherwise, Russia would have to deal with selling now large unsold stockpiles through steep discounts, creating an even more severe budget deficit, already expected to reach over $100 billion by the end of the year, and further undermine its already strained wartime economy.

Ironically, India’s announcement arrived just hours after a bold statement by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who publicly mocked Trump’s threats, confidently dismissing concerns over US tariffs. Trump had earlier mocked Russia and India as “dead economies”, declaring indifference toward their economic fates and directly warning Medvedev against further provocations. The swift Indian capitulation underlines a broader geopolitical implication: despite Moscow’s ambitious claims about the rise of a BRICS-led order, the reality remains starkly different.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Thanks to your incredible support, we’ve raised 70% of our funding goal to launch a platform connecting Ukraine’s defense tech with the world – David vs. Goliath defense blog. It will support Ukrainian engineers who are creating innovative battlefield solutions and we are inviting you to join us on the journey.

Our platform will showcase the Ukrainian defense tech underdogs who are Ukraine’s hope to win in the war against Russia, giving them the much-needed visibility to connect them with crucial expertise, funding, and international support.

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Today, as Russian authorities were trying to repair the damage to oil refineries from previous Ukrainian attacks, the Ukrainians dealt them another devastating blow. By starting a new wave of strikes with long-range drones, the Ukrainian army targeted Russian oil production facilities to disrupt this key enemy source of income. Ukrainian forces have reignited their strategic campaign against Russia’s oil infrastructure, resuming targeted drone strikes on critical refineries after a calculated pause.

Kyiv strikes just as Russia finishes costly repairs

After concentrating on disabling Russian air defenses and radars in the past month, Ukrainian military leaders patiently allowed Russia to begin costly restoration efforts at previously damaged facilities. Once Russian repair crews and specialized equipment were fully engaged, Ukrainian drones decisively struck again, inflicting severe economic and logistical damage while simultaneously eroding Russia’s internal narrative of security.

Liutyi drones set Samara’s Novokuybyshevsk refinery ablaze

In Samara Oblast, Ukrainian long-range Liutyi drones successfully attacked the Novokuybyshevsk Petrochemical Company, one of Russia’s largest oil-processing plants. Drone strikes severely damaged the facility’s primary oil refining unit, critical for crude purification and fractioning processes into gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil. Videos confirm large-scale fires burning uncontrollably for hours, forcing authorities to shut down Samara airport and restrict mobile internet access to control information leaks. The Novokuybyshevsk refinery alone represents a daily capacity of over 177,000 barrels—almost 5% of Russia’s national refining capability.

Ryazan refinery hit, fuel lifeline to bomber base severed

In a similar attack, Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan refinery, number 3 in Russia’s largest oil refineries, processing 340,000 barrels daily. This refinery produces 840,000 tons of aviation kerosene annually, nearly 9% of Russia’s total output, a vital resource for Russian air operations. It is situated next to—and directly supplies—the Dyagilevo strategic bomber airbase, from where Russian bombers target Ukrainian cities and military bases deep behind combat lines. Footage captured massive fires and explosions, contradicting official Russian claims of minor damage.

Russian air defenses crack under pressure, Sochi hit

Such strikes significantly degrade Russia’s capability to sustain air operations, directly benefiting Ukrainian defense efforts. Russia’s strained air defenses, already weakened by relentless Ukrainian targeting, are becoming increasingly ineffective, forcing Moscow to deploy outdated systems and rush production of air defense missiles, causing more defects. Such desperation recently resulted in a friendly fire incident near Sochi, where a Russian missile intended for a Ukrainian drone veered toward urban areas, causing civilian casualties.

Southern fuel depots in flames after precision drone strikes

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes inflicted serious damage on oil storage depots in Sochi and Adler, igniting tanks at Lukoil and Rosneft facilities. Krasnodar Governor Veniamin Kondratyev confirmed deployment of over 120 firefighters to control the blaze at a major depot storing 2,000 cubic meters of fuel. Yet, local authorities responded by attempting to identify and punish residents who shared visual evidence of the successful strikes online.

Kstovo and Volgograd refineries burn in renewed attacks

Additionally, Ukraine hit the refinery in Kstovo near Nizhny Novgorod, an already damaged facility previously targeted in January. The renewed strike represents Ukraine’s tactic of exploiting Russian vulnerabilities after costly restoration efforts. Another drone attack sparked a large fire at an oil facility in Volgograd, underscoring Ukraine’s renewed campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.

Repeat-strike tactics drain Russia’s war resources

The strategic secret behind Ukraine’s approach lies in carefully timed repetition strikes. Allowing Russians to rebuild and re-staff targeted refineries before striking again magnifies economic damage and drains resources. The psychological impact on Russian society is equally devastating, publicly demonstrating the Kremlin’s inability to secure vital assets. This persistent vulnerability undermines the government’s image, dismantles official assurances of safety, and weakens public morale.

Overall, these coordinated drone assaults degrade Russia’s military capacity, cut critical fuel supplies, and limit oil export revenues used to fund the war.

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