The Hudson Institute has identified eight critical targets across Russia and occupied territories that Ukraine could strike to destabilize Moscow’s war effort. The report, authored by Luke Coffey and Can Kasapoğlu and titled “Breaking the Stalemate: Russian Targets Ukraine Should Strike,” argues that sustained pressure on these chokepoints could undermine Russian logistics, weaken the Kremlin’s control over occupied areas.

Volga–Don Canal

The Volga–Don Canal is a 63-mile waterway linking the Caspian and Black Seas. Russia uses it to move vessels from the Caspian Flotilla and to transport Iranian-supplied weapons. The Kremlin has committed $1 billion to modernize the canal, underscoring its importance. Analysts note that damaging Locks 8 and 9, which sit at the canal’s summit, could halt navigation and disrupt water flow, crippling east–west logistics and trade with Iran.

Shahed Drone Plant in Tatarstan

Located in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, Russia’s main Shahed drone facility produces multiple variants with Iranian support.

Open-source reporting indicates that Russia’s Shahed drone plant in Tatarstan likely produces 170–190 drones per day. In June 2025 alone, Russia launched around 5,500 Shaheds against Ukrainian cities. Production could rise further, with estimates suggesting up to 2,000 drones per month by late 2025.

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The facility employs thousands, including foreign workers and students, raising civilian risks. The report suggests Ukraine could instead target the plant’s energy lifeline at the nearby Nizhnekamsk Thermal Power Plant to disrupt production indirectly.

China–Russia Land Routes

Russia’s wartime dependence on Chinese imports has soared, reaching $240 billion annually. These include drones, optics, semiconductors, and weapon components. Around 90% of this trade crosses the border by rail through Manzhouli–Zabaykalsk and Suifenhe–Pogranichny. While directly striking at the crossings could be politically fraught, Hudson Institute identifies rail bridges and railyards within Russia as vulnerable chokepoints that, if disrupted, would slow the flow of critical dual-use goods

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Crimea’s Access Routes

Crimea remains a central hub for Russia’s southern operations. The Kerch Bridge has been attacked and damaged three times, but never destroyed. The report stresses that Western-supplied long-range missiles, such as Germany’s Taurus, could finish the job. Analysts also highlight smaller but equally vital routes into Crimea: the Chonhar, Syvash, and Henichesk Bridges. These links connect the peninsula to Kherson Oblast and are more vulnerable to attack than Kerch. Severing them would drastically weaken Russian supply lines into occupied southern Ukraine.

Rail Bridges in Western Russia

Russia’s military depends heavily on rail, moving up to 30,000 tons of ammunition and fuel daily. Each division requires about 1,870 tons of cargo, with artillery munitions accounting for half. While trains in motion are difficult to strike, Hudson Institute stresses that rail bridges, transformers, and substations are fixed and exposed. Recent Ukrainian strikes in Samara and along the Oryol–Kursk line show this tactic is viable. Sustained attacks could cripple supply lines across the Russian heartland.

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Emerging Russian Base in occupied Abkhazia

Moscow is shifting parts of its Black Sea Fleet to Abkhazia’s Ochamchire port, on occupied Georgian territory, after heavy losses in Crimea. The new base remains under construction and vulnerable. The coastline is exposed, infrastructure is weak, and supply routes rely on a single road and rail link with a bridge that forms a critical choke point. Hudson Institute concludes that striking early could delay or halt Russia’s efforts to diversify its naval footprint in the Black Sea.

Transnistria

The Russian garrison in Moldova’s Transnistria enclave is another fragile point. About 1,500 troops remain there with outdated equipment and no realistic way to reinforce them. Ukraine, the report argues, could eliminate the pocket if necessary, relieving pressure on Odesa. But the analysis also warns that such a move would risk humanitarian fallout in Moldova and Romania, especially near the massive Cobasna ammunition depot.

Russian Pacific Fleet Bases

Though far from the battlefield, Russia’s Pacific Fleet has quietly supported the war. It has transferred naval brigades to Ukraine and redeployed ships to the Black Sea. These distant bases lack the dense defenses seen in Crimea, making them potential targets. Analysts suggest Ukraine could adapt maritime drones to reach the area. Even limited strikes would force Moscow to disperse defenses and reconsider its global naval posture.

Ukraine’s Air Force said it intercepted 63 of 97 Russian drones overnight on 15 August. Russia also launched two Iskander-M missiles. Despite most drones being destroyed, the strikes killed and injured civilians in Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, and Kherson oblasts, damaging homes, cars, farms, and infrastructure in at least 13 locations.

Nationwide civilian toll in latest wave of attacks

The Air Force reported that Shahed attack drones, decoy UAVs, and ballistic missiles were launched from five directions, targeting both frontline and rear settlements. Aircraft, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups were used to repel the assault, but local officials in four oblasts confirmed fresh deaths and injuries alongside severe property damage.

“Impacts from missiles and 34 UAVs were recorded at 13 locations,” the Air Force reported.

Kharkiv Oblast: four killed, two injured

Kharkiv Oblast head Oleh Synehubov said Russian forces attacked five settlements in the last 24 hours, killing four people and injuring two.

Russian attacks killed a 64-year-old man in Kozacha Lopan. In Nechvolodivka, Russian forces killed a 69-year-old man and a 69-year-old woman and injured a 76-year-old woman. In Nova Kozacha, Russian strikes killed a 38-year-old man and injured another 38-year-old man. The attacks damaged detached houses in Kozacha Lopan and Nova Kozacha, two houses and a car in Nechvolodivka, and a garage, two cars, a tractor, and a vegetable storage building in Borova. Russian forces used guided aerial bombs, a Molniya drone, FPV drones, and other UAVs.

Sumy Oblast

The Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported 100 strikes on 46 settlements in 16 communities between the morning of 14 August and the morning of 15 August.

In Miropilska community, a 32-year-old man was injured by an FPV drone. In Sumska community, a gas station was hit by a Russian UAV, burning a civilian vehicle and injuring its driver, who suffered burns. Damage was reported to houses, apartment buildings, civilian cars, and non-residential buildings in Bilopilska, Velykopysarivska, Vorozhbianska, and Hlukhovska communities. Russian forces used guided bombs, multiple rocket launchers, FPV drones, and other UAVs. Eleven people were evacuated from border areas during the day.

Donetsk Oblast: two killed, seven injured

Donetsk Oblast head Vadym Filashkin said Russian shelling on 14 August killed two civilians — one in Kostyantynivka and one in Virivka — and injured seven others across the oblast. 

Kherson Oblast: Russian “human safari” continues

The Kherson Oblast Military Administration’s morning report, covering 06:00 on 14 August to 06:00 on 15 August, said Russian artillery and drone attacks on more than 40 settlements killed one person and injured five others, including a child. Damage included apartment buildings, 22 detached houses, gas pipelines, outbuildings, and a private car.

This morning, around 08:00 on 15 August, Russian artillery hit central Kherson, injuring a 52-year-old man. Another update said a 40-year-old Kherson resident was injured in the same shelling, suffering blast injuries and a concussion. Also around 08:00, a drone struck a home in Kherson, injuring a 45-year-old woman with a concussion and head injuries.

Additional information emerged about earlier shelling in Shliakhove, Beryslav community, which killed two men aged 86 and 56 several days before. Later still, three medical workers — two women aged 47 and a 28-year-old man — sought treatment for blast injuries and concussions sustained in a previous day’s Russian shelling of Kherson.