Moscow’s recycled lies and nuclear bluster aim to fracture NATO and halt US aid for Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 16 July. The Kremlin is reviving old narratives, including nuclear threats and faux diplomacy, in a coordinated information campaign targeting the United States’ renewed commitment to Ukraine and NATO.

Kremlin revives nuclear threats to pressure NATO

ISW says that the Kremlin is “recycling several longstanding informational narratives, including nuclear threats, in a renewed effort to break the United States away from Ukraine and the NATO alliance.” 

On 16 July, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that all provisions of Russia’s nuclear doctrine remain active. He emphasized that nuclear powers must not “incite” non-nuclear states and warned that nuclear countries must “answer” for such incitement.

Russia had updated its nuclear doctrine in fall 2024, introducing a clause suggesting that aggression by a non-nuclear country backed by a nuclear power may be treated as a joint attack on Russia.

Blaming the West for Moscow’s war

Responding to a question about Trump’s push for increased NATO military aid to Ukraine, Peskov claimed that “Europeans maintain a rabid militaristic attitude towards Moscow.“

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov echoed this approach, stating on 15 July that Moscow’s illegal invasion of Ukraine aims to eliminate “the threats that NATO has created” on Russia’s borders.

ISW highlights that these narratives have remained constant throughout the war and are being revived to undermine unity between the United States and Europe.

Russia casts itself as the peacemaker

Amid the Western calls to force Moscow into meaningful negotiations to end the war, Peskov  urged the international community to pressure Ukraine—not Russia, the aggressor country—into bilateral negotiations. ISW assesses this move as an effort to “falsely portray Russia as willing to negotiate while undermining Ukraine’s credibility.”

Strategy targets transatlantic unity

ISW notes that Russia is using the same “rhetorical line” that it has used throughout the war “to deter Western support for Ukraine, but has shifted its objective from preventing new support for Ukraine to reversing recent support” and to break the US from its NATO allies.

“The Kremlin is prioritizing informational campaigns aimed at undermining NATO unity and stoking discontent between the United States and its European allies in order to degrade Ukraine’s defense capabilities and achieve its longstanding war aims that amount to Ukraine’s capitulation,” ISW wrote.

Day 1239

On 15 July, the biggest news comes from the United States.

After weeks of record-breaking Russian strikes, President Donald Trump has reversed course and resumed US military aid to Ukraine. The decision ended a three-week pause that had delayed critical defense systems just as Ukraine’s air defenses were being pushed to the limit.

That peak was reached just days ago, when Russia launched its largest aerial attack of the war so far. Over 700 drones and missiles were fired in a single night, primarily targeting energy facilities, airbases, and ammunition stockpiles.

Russian state media claimed the attack was a coordinated operation to dismantle Ukraine’s war effort, but most of the actual damage was inflicted on civilian infrastructure. Several Ukrainian airfields suffered minor damage, but many of the intended military targets were either missed or intercepted. Ukrainian air defense claimed to have shot down over 500 incoming projectiles, including nearly every Shahed drone. While some ballistic and cruise missiles slipped through, the scale of destruction fell far short of what the Kremlin had likely intended.

And that miscalculation may have backfired. The original reason the US paused military aid was to open space for de-escalation and preserve its own shrinking stockpile of interceptors. But Russia’s response was to escalate, not slow down. As you remember from a previous report, Russia is dramatically increasing drone and missile output, aiming to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses and outlast Western patience.

But by unleashing the biggest strike of the war just as talks stalled, the Kremlin made clear that its goal is not negotiation, it is devastation. The strategy seems to have convinced President Trump that further delay would only invite more bloodshed. Moscow’s aggression ultimately ended the pause, forcing the decision back onto the table.

What followed was a rapid green light for aid shipments, with renewed focus on US patriot systems. These systems are not designed to intercept drones; they are used against ballistic and cruise missiles, including Iskander-M, Kinzhal, Kalibr, and other high-speed threats. While Patriots are among the most capable interceptors in the world, the challenge is industrial; the US currently produces around 550 Patriot missiles per year, and is working to double that output by next year.

In recent strikes, Russia has only needed a few missiles per wave to break through. With Ukrainian air defenses already stretched thin, it is the ballistic and cruise missiles that do real damage, hitting power grids, command hubs, and airbases with precision.

That is why having enough Patriots matters, because when even one slips through, it can knock out a power station or command node. But Russia is also expanding its missile production. The real race is between how many advanced missiles Russia can fire and how many interceptors Ukraine’s allies can supply in time. If that ratio tips the wrong way, critical infrastructure will fall, and Russian air dominance will grow.

For now, the US still holds the edge in quality and output. NATO countries are scaling up their production lines, while Ukraine is adapting its defenses by blending cheaper systems like Gepards and laser-guided short-range interceptors with high-end Patriots. But the problem is volume: if the US sends 100 interceptors and Russia fires 150 cruise or ballistic missiles, Ukraine can only defend so much. The new aid package is not just about blocking the next attack; it is about buying enough time and firepower to shift the ratio before winter sets in.

Overall, Russia’s strategy is ruthless, but far from subtle: escalate pressure, trigger delays in Western support, and then exploit the gap with concentrated firepower. But this time, the sheer scale of the offensive may have backfired. By striking while the West was still hesitating, Moscow may have overplayed its hand and pushed Washington and its allies to recommit more forcefully. For Ukraine, it is a temporary lifeline, but also a warning, as long as Russia can launch, no pause in aid will ever hold for long.

US President Donald Trump may arm Ukraine in response to Russia’s largest drone and missile assault since the start of the full-scale invasion, CBS reports, citing multiple diplomatic sources. According to the sources, the potential funding is aimed at sending a message to Russia following recent aerial attacks. This week saw Russia’s largest drone assaults since February 2022. Kyiv and several other cities suffered repeated strikes.

A White House official told CBS the administration had recently paused some weapons deliveries as part of a global review of arms transfers. Still, earlier this week, Trump hinted he intended to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine.

$3.85 billion in military aid could be reactivated

US officials told CBS News that $3.85 billion in unused presidential drawdown authority from the Biden era remains available. Trump may now use that fund to deliver American military equipment to Ukraine.

Former officials also noted that Trump has the power to seize around $5 billion in frozen Russian assets and redirect those funds to Ukraine. So far, neither Trump nor former President Joe Biden has exercised that authority.

From arms freeze to new shipments: policy shift follows Russian escalation

Earlier this year, Trump expressed skepticism about aid to Ukraine and urged both Ukraine and Russia to pursue a peace agreement. He has often criticized the scale of American military spending on the war.

But his tone changed sharply in recent days. Last week, Trump told reporters he was “very disappointed” after a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. During a Cabinet meeting on 8 July, he confirmed a shift in stance.

“Putin is not treating human beings right. He’s killing too many people,” Trump said. “So we’re sending some defensive weapons to Ukraine, and I’ve approved that.”

Trump says NATO will buy US weapons for Ukraine

As Euromaidan Press reported earlier, Trump is also pushing for NATO allies to take on more responsibility, and purchase weapons for Ukraine from the US.

“We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, 100%,” Trump told NBC.

Diplomatic sources told CBS News that Trump spoke with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte about European countries purchasing US-made equipment for Ukraine. 

When asked about the NATO initiative on 11 July in Malaysia, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated the logic behind the idea:

“At the end of the day, some of the systems that Ukraine requires are systems that Europe doesn’t make. They would have to purchase them from the United States,” Rubio said.

The $500 million Ukraine aid bill advanced in the US Senate after the Armed Services Committee approved it, according to The Hill. The package cleared its first major hurdle this week with strong bipartisan support from the Senate Armed Services Committee. The legislation adds $200 million for 2026 and extends the Pentagon’s Ukraine assistance program through 2028.

Senate committee advances long-term Ukraine support plan

The Hill reported on 11 July that the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) approved the $500 million Ukraine aid bill two days earlier as part of the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The vote passed 26–1. The bill includes a $200 million increase in Ukraine aid for 2026 and extends the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative through 2028.

NATO allies increase defense spending, EU unveils $162M rearmament plan

As part of broader coordination, NATO member states have earlier agreed to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP — a long-standing demand from Trump. This shift comes as the European Union moves to implement a $162 million readiness initiative aimed at rearming European forces within five years.

Trump plans to send Ukraine weapons through NATO, according to three sources familiar with internal discussions who spoke to Axios. The proposed route would involve selling arms to NATO allies, who would then pass them on to Ukraine.

NATO route to Ukraine weapons discussed, Trump confirms intent

Axios reports that President Trump is actively planning to sell weapons to NATO countries with the understanding that those allies will transfer the arms to Ukraine. The proposal has already been discussed with European partners and Ukraine, according to two sources familiar with those discussions.

In an interview with NBC News, Trump “seemed to confirm” the plan, Axios says:

“So what we’re doing is the weapons that are going out are going to NATO, and then NATO is going to be giving those weapons [to Ukraine], and NATO is paying for those weapons,” he said.

Despite this, two administration officials told Axios that the United States is not directly arming Ukraine. One official stated,

“POTUS is sending defensive weapons to NATO. NATO can decide what to do with it. We’re not sending weapons to Ukraine.”

Allies consulted, offensive weapons not ruled out

Axios reports that the scheme was discussed at the recent NATO summit. The discussions included both Ukrainian and European officials. One source told Axios that the sales could go beyond air defense systems and include offensive weapons as well.

A senior European official confirmed to Axios that their government had been involved in conversations about the plan. However, that official noted that no final decision or implementation timeline had been agreed upon.

Trump emphasizes NATO responsibility and payment

Trump presented the arrangement as one in which NATO assumes both operational and financial responsibility. “NATO is paying for those weapons,” Trump told NBC, underlining that the United States is not directly providing aid.

An official told Axios that while Trump continues to oppose direct arms packages to Ukraine, he is pursuing this route through NATO. The goal appears to be enabling Ukraine to receive weapons without direct US involvement.

Trump’s earlier Ukraine policy and shifting stance

Earlier, the Trump administration halted deliveries of certain weapons that had been approved under former President Joe Biden. Some of those shipments later resumed.

Trump previously allowed some existing Biden-era arms shipments to proceed, but had not approved any new aid packages since taking office. Reuters says he plans to approve his own first shipments using his presidential drawdown powers.

Trump activates drawdown powers for the first time in his current term to approve Ukraine military aid, according to Reuters. The $300 million package may reportedly include Patriot missile systems and guided rockets—probably, GMLRS for HIMARS systems.

Trump may be activating drawdown powers to send $300 million in arms from existing US stockpiles

Two sources familiar with the decision told Reuters the aid would come from US weapons already in storage. The package is expected to be pulled from Pentagon stockpiles using Presidential Drawdown Authority. One of the sources said a final decision on the equipment could be made at a meeting on “Thursday.”

The reported $300 million in aid may include defensive Patriot missile interceptors and offensive medium-range rockets. However, “a decision on the exact equipment has not been made,” according to a source. According to Reuters, the equipment is likely to be delivered quickly because the systems are already staged in Europe.

Reuters said the Pentagon and the White House declined to comment when asked about the plans.

First planned direct aid under Trump since return to office

By now, the Trump administration has only “approved”—or, more accurately, did not block—deliveries authorized under Biden.

If finalized, it would be the first time Trump activates drawdown powers to directly send weapons to Ukraine, Reuters notes. The use of authority may show a shift in Trump’s Ukraine policy.

Presidential Drawdown Authority allows the president to transfer weapons quickly from US stocks, bypassing the need for new legislation.

US weapons shipments to Ukraine have resumed, with deliveries now confirmed by the Associated Press and the New York Post sources to include precision-guided GMLRS rockets and 155 mm artillery shells. This marks the first clear confirmation of resumed aid content since the Pentagon quietly paused certain deliveries weeks ago.

Guided rockets and artillery shells confirmed in resumed deliveries

The Associated Press and the New York Post report that the United States is once again sending GMLRS munitions for HIMARS launchers and 155 mm howitzer rounds to Ukraine. According to two American officials who spoke to AP on condition of anonymity, the deliveries are already underway. Some shipments had reportedly reached Poland before the initial halt took effect.

These specific munitions were not publicly confirmed until now. Though the Trump administration announced on 7 July that deliveries would resume, neither the Pentagon nor the White House initially revealed what would be included in the new packages.

Pentagon’s pause drew internal backlash

The pause was first implemented last week by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, reportedly to reassess US military stockpiles. The move caught other branches of the administration off guard, including the State Department and White House, according to AP.

President Donald Trump later addressed the issue directly, expressing frustration.

“I will be the first to know. In fact, most likely I’d give the order, but I haven’t done that yet,” he said. Asked who ordered the pause, Trump replied: “I don’t know. Why don’t you tell me?”

A White House official, also speaking anonymously, claimed there was never an official “pause,” only a review to ensure alignment with US defense strategy.

• The Pentagon halted the weapon supplies to Ukraine earlier due to concerns over the depletion of American munitions stockpiles. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly ordered the halt.
• In response, 17 members of Congress and the Senate called on Defense Secretary Hegseth to fully resume all weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
• On 7 July, the Pentagon announced that President Trump had directed a resumption of deliveries, though specifics were not provided until this week.