With the global tide turning against him, the US president’s lame duck status could still aggravate old tensions and spark new explosions

It was a victory for the world, too. People in the many countries that suffered pain, loss and cruel indignities at the hands of Donald Trump over the past two chaotic, fearful years celebrated a moment of glorious, shared redemption. The monster, like others of his kind, still lurks in his gilded White House lair; far-right authoritarianism still casts a dark shadow over many nations. But the power of this most destructive of presidents is shattered, his malignant spell broken. The triumphant roar of US midterm voters was a rallying cry of democratic defiance that, echoing the American revolution of 250 years ago, reverberated around the globe.

For Iranians, Trump’s electoral humiliation raised hopes, perhaps misplaced, that his murderous war of choice against Tehran’s oppressive regime may soon cease. In Israel, many among the majority who voted for change last week will welcome the humbling of the foremost supporter of Benjamin Netanyahu’s as-yet-unvanquished extremist coalition. Ukrainians voiced optimism that a Democratic-controlled Congress will curb the sickening appeasement of Vladimir Putin’s Russia. In Europe, the beginning of the end of the Trump era brought a sense of relief – and hope that toxic transatlantic relations can be drained of Maga poison.

Once the midterms are over, Trump will be free to pursue vendetta politics. But with will and diplomacy, he can be reined in

As another Iran catastrophe looms, one question matters more than any other: how to stop it before it’s too late? Whatever the eventual outcome of Israel’s election and next week’s US midterm polls, Donald Trump, playing the Lone Ranger, and Benjamin Netanyahu, his badass Tonto, appear hell-bent on resuming the illegal war of choice they began in June last year and expanded in February. Like a Shakespearean tragedy moving inexorably to a bloody denouement, the worst is yet to come. And yet three things seem certain: the US and Israel will again fail to totally destroy Iran’s largely hypothetical nuclear capabilities; its regime will survive; and millions of ordinary people, there and around the world, will pay the price for this unjustified, reckless aggression.

Ducking and weaving, Trump is desperate to dodge the blame for the Republicans’ anticipated midterm meltdown, largely triggered by war-related fuel and consumer price inflation. He claimed Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries were responsible, but that didn’t wash. He cut a treacherous diesel deal with Vladimir Putin but, as usual, Russia’s smirking mafioso conned him. He urged US allies to tap their strategic reserves but, unsurprisingly, vilified and sidelined European leaders, who view his war as an unmitigated disaster and declined to bail him out. Trump also reportedly rebuffed last-gasp, electorally driven pressure from Netanyahu to hit Iran this month, fearful it would unleash a Democratic tsunami.

Simon Tisdall is a Guardian foreign affairs commentator