“Let’s put out this raging fire,” declared the fireman – then he grabbed a can of gasoline.

That, in essence, is Elbridge Colby’s strategy for contesting China’s rise: letting Russia – Beijing’s most dangerous partner and increasingly a vassal – dismember Ukraine with impunity.

In his widely cited book The Strategy of Denial, Colby argues that America’s overriding priority must be to prevent the People’s Republic of China – which he identifies as a hostile hegemon – from dominating the Indo-Pacific. That requires a narrow, disciplined focus on deterrence, building trust with allies, and showing adversaries that American commitments are ironclad.

And yet, Colby, who wrote this magnum opus, cannot possibly be the same person who threw Ukraine under the bus – to China’s very public delight. No wonder Sen. Mitch McConnell called his ideas “geostrategic self-harm” when voting against his confirmation.

Pentagon policy chief halts Ukraine weapons despite military analysis

A bombshell Politico investigation revealed that the architect of the recent weapons halt to Ukraine was none other than Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Colby. The official justification was concern over stockpile levels – a legitimate consideration that might warrant careful management of aid flows.

The decision also undercut the White House’s stated goal: a ceasefire agreed to by both parties. Ukraine accepted the proposal months ago. Russia didn’t just refuse, it mocked the peace talks and made Washington look weak and indecisive.

On 4 July, following the Trump-Putin phone call, Russia hit Ukraine with the largest drone attack of the war. 11 missiles and 539 Russian-Iranian Shahed drones were fired at Kyiv over a seven-hour onslaught. This record was shattered just five days later, on 9 July, when Russia launched 728 drones and 13 missiles in another massive assault.

According to Bloomberg, 92% of the foreign components found in the killer drones terrorizing Ukrainian cities are of Chinese origin. And on 23 July, The Telegraph reported that Russia now deploys fully Chinese-made drones to prosecute its criminal war in Ukraine.

On the very day Colby’s meddling with congressionally mandated weapons deliveries made headlines, Wang Yi – the top foreign policy official in the Chinese Communist Party – laid Beijing’s position bare: “China cannot allow Russia to lose the war in Ukraine,” he told European diplomats in a closed-door briefing.

China enjoys a favorable view among 81% of Russians, while 71% express hostility toward the EU. Ukraine and the United States are the only countries regarded with greater contempt.

Why Russia won’t abandon China for Western partnership

The idea that Washington can somehow coax Russia into abandoning China and joining the West runs counter to everything we know about the Kremlin’s imperial legacy. Moscow’s legitimacy rests on denying agency to the peoples it subjugates – from serfs during tsarist times to the inhabitants of the Russian Federation today.

America’s Constitution begins with a phrase the Kremlin sees as a mortal threat: We the People. The freedom and dignity that Americans and Europeans wish for the many Peoples of Russia are exactly what threatens Moscow’s system of oppression and subjugation.

How weakening Ukraine undermines American deterrence globally

By crippling Ukraine, Colby is doing precisely what his doctrine warned against: enabling the consolidation of a China–Russia-Iran-North Korea axis that threatens US interests far beyond Eastern Europe. American deterrence hinges on reliable commitments. So what message does a cut-off to Ukraine send to Taiwan, Japan, or the Philippines?

America forfeits credibility by broadcasting indifference and betraying people who just want to defend their home and not be murdered by Russia. The erosion of resolve is how great powers stumble into wars they try to avoid.

Ukraine has already shown that denial works. With the right tools, it has sunk much of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, retaken territory, and exposed the limits of Russian air power – most recently in Operation Spiderweb, which destroyed a row of Moscow’s bombers deep behind enemy lines.

Putting the moral case aside, aiding Ukraine is a strategic imperative under Colby’s own framework. Moscow reintroduced overt territorial conquest into modern geopolitics. In such a world, US force projection in East Asia grows harder and exponentially more expensive to sustain.

Explore further

Why Ukraine’s fight is key to defeating Russia-China-North Korea alliance

While Washington burns through nearly a trillion dollars each year on defense, the $40 billion the United States sent annually to Kyiv since 2022 is a minor fraction of that sum – and a bargain, when you consider the cost of letting deterrence collapse.

The truth is, abandoning Ukraine won’t deny China’s rise; it will enable it. It won’t isolate Moscow or draw it closer to the West; it will bind the Kremlin even more tightly to Beijing. It won’t preserve US leadership, it will shred the very credibility on which that leadership depends.

In Colby’s hands, the strategy of denial has morphed into a doctrine of permission. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping couldn’t have asked for a better gift.

Andrew Chakhoyan

Andrew Chakhoyan is an Academic Director at the University of Amsterdam and a former U.S. government official at the Millennium Challenge Corporation. A Ukrainian-American, he studied at Harvard Kennedy School and Donetsk State Technical University.

Editor’s note. The opinions expressed in our Opinion section belong to their authors. Euromaidan Press’ editorial team may or may not share them.

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Pentagon paused Ukraine aid without White House or key officials informed

According to five sources cited by CNN, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth halted critical military aid shipments to Ukraine last week without notifying President Trump or key national security officials. The decision was made without briefing the White House, the State Department, or even Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Ret. Gen. Keith Kellogg.

The freeze was the second time Hegseth had paused Ukraine-bound weapons this year without proper coordination. The first instance occurred in February and was quickly reversed. This time, the White House had to scramble to cover for a decision it had not authorized.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as Trump’s national security adviser, learned about the halt only after press reports broke the story, CNN reports.

Trump distances himself from the pause and orders aid to resume

During a Cabinet meeting, President Trump denied any involvement in the sudden stop to US military assistance. When asked if he had authorized the move, he responded,

“I don’t know, why don’t you tell me?”

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WSJ: Trump blames Pentagon, not himself, for Ukraine weapons pause

The US president later announced that Ukraine would continue to receive defensive weapons. Trump’s decision to restart the aid included directing the Pentagon to resume shipments of Patriot interceptor missiles, which had already been staged in Poland and were ready for rapid transfer to Kyiv.

A senior administration official told CNN that the weapons had been allocated by the previous administration and were already en route before the pause.

Pentagon’s chain of approval

The uncoordinated pause reportedly stemmed from a chain of internal decisions within the Department of Defense. Hegseth acted after receiving recommendations from Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, a long-standing critic of large-scale US military aid to Ukraine.

“All five sources” CNN spoke with confirmed that Colby, citing concerns over US stockpile levels, advised halting the aid to prioritize other global defense needs. Colby had previously posted on X that “a Europe first policy is not what America needs in this exceptionally dangerous time.”

Colby passed his recommendation to Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg, who approved the move based on his own doubts about the defense industry’s ability to replenish US munitions fast enough. Hegseth then signed off, believing it aligned with Trump’s “America First” stance.

Explore further

Trump sends just ten Patriot missiles to Kyiv, while Ukraine needs hundreds, and other weapons remain in limbo

Congress not briefed—no evidence of urgent stockpile shortages

Lawmakers received no warning about the shipment freeze. According to CNN, Pentagon officials told congressional staff that the pause was due to concerns over US munitions levels. Yet, two sources familiar with those briefings said Congress had not been presented with any credible data showing a critical shortage that would justify the sudden halt.