Russian forces are pushing near Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, but it is premature to call these gains an operational-level breakthrough, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The think tank assesses that Moscow’s troops are likely seeking to turn current tactical advances into a broader push in the coming days.

Russian advances southeast of Dobropillia

ISW reported on 11 August that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating near Dobropillia, northwest of Pokrovsk. A Ukrainian source said such groups are active in the area. NASA FIRMS satellite data indicated heat anomalies west of Nove Shakhove, in Novyi Donbas, Bilytske, and Rodynske — suggesting artillery fire in these areas.

The think tank assessed that Russian forces likely seized several settlements southeast of Dobropillya, including Razine, Sukhetske, Fedorivka, Zatyshok, Boikivka, Novotoretske, and Zapovidne, as well as Mayak and Pankivka east of Dobropillia. Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed its troops took Fedorivka, northeast of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported forward Russian assault units and infiltration groups operating near Kucheriv Yar, Nove Shakhove, and Bilytske.

Contested zones and advancing lines

Russian military bloggers claimed Moscow’s forces seized Dorozhnie, advanced north of Zapovidne, south of Bilytske, south of Dorozhnie, west of Shakhove, and southeast of Vilne toward Nove Shakhove. Other claimed gains included areas south of Kucheriv Yar and on the outskirts of Zolotyi Kolodyaz.

One milblogger said Russian forces control about half of Volodymyrivka, south of Shakhove, while Ukrainian troops hold northern Pankivka. The same source claimed Russian troops have interdicted a 2.5-kilometer section of the T-0515 Pokrovsk–Dobropillya highway. Another milblogger described Kucheriv Yar and Zolotyi Kolodyaz as contested “gray zones,” with Russian reconnaissance-in-force missions underway.

ISW sees potential for bigger gains

ISW stressed it is too early to declare these moves an operational-level breakthrough. However, the think tank noted Russian forces may attempt to mature these tactical penetrations into a larger offensive in the coming days, similar to the approach used in mid-April 2024 that led to the seizure of operationally significant territory northwest of Avdiivka.

The institute said the next several days will be critical for Ukraine’s ability to prevent accelerated Russian gains north and northwest of Pokrovsk.