Russian forces are unlikely to sustain the Kremlin’s goal of simultaneous offensive operations across multiple directions due to growing manpower and equipment problems, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Russia’s attempts to escalate fighting along Ukraine’s Fortress Belt — a major fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast — are expected to stretch its forces even further.

Russian forces face exhaustion across multiple fronts

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its 14 December report that Russian troops will likely continue to "struggle to maintain the Kremlin’s desired multi-pronged offensive operations in different operational directions." These multi-directional attacks come with high logistical costs, which Russia appears unable to meet in the long term.

ISW noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin and top military officials have recently intensified their battlefield narratives, exaggerating claimed advances on several axes. In particular, they have emphasized operations around Vovchansk, Kupiansk, Siversk, Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, and Hulyaipole. 

Russian military overstretched near Huliaipole and Oleksandrivka

Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets said on 13 December that the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces, which operates in the Huliaipole and Oleksandrivka directions, will require regrouping or reinforcements from other parts of the front to maintain their offensive push. He stated that troops under the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies are already struggling to carry out operations due to their wide area of responsibility and limited resources.

Mashovets assessed that sustaining pressure near Huliaipole would require either narrowing the frontline or redeploying additional forces, potentially including elements of the 36th and 29th Combined Arms Armies from the Oleksandrivka area to reinforce the 5th Army. He judged that key 5th Army formations, including the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, are unlikely to achieve near-term success.

Push toward Fortress Belt to drain Russian military further

ISW assessed that Russia’s attempt to begin an assault on the Fortress Belt — Ukraine’s primary fortified line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014 — will likely place even more pressure on its forces. Mashovets warned that launching an attack on key strongholds like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk would require Russia to commit forces and resources from the Western, Southern, and Central Groupings of Forces. In doing so, Russian troops would be unable to maintain activity in other directions, including Velykyi Burlyk and Orikhiv.

He added that structural issues within Russia’s wartime economy and defense industrial base will further complicate efforts to sustain the scale of operations needed for such a push. ISW noted that to follow up on tactical gains around Huliaipole or to capture remaining parts of Donetsk Oblast, Russia would need to weaken its efforts in other frontline sectors.

"The Kremlin is therefore making territorial demands of unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts because it cannot militarily seize these regions at this time," the ISW concluded.