Russia may call up as many as 600,000 troops for its next offensive, one of Ukraine's most battle-hardened commanders warns. Brigadier General Denys Prokopenko, who commanded the Mariupol defense, survived Russian captivity, and, on 13 September, took charge of the newly formed Azov grouping fighting in Donetsk Oblast, said covert recruitment is already underway and that open mobilization could begin after Russia's elections, in late September or early winter, Novyny.LIVE reported.

Prokopenko is forecasting the war on the ground he now defends. He commands the Azov grouping, one of two forces Ukraine has assembled to hold the Donetsk front, the sector where Russia is pushing hardest toward the fortress-city belt. That gives his reading the weight of a commander answerable for the line, not a distant analyst.

He expects a Russian mobilization of up to 600,000, double the 300,000 fall call-up reported earlier, all aimed at Russian President Vladimir Putin's declared goal of seizing every inch of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Russia eyes the fortress cities and the north

By the end of the fall campaign, Prokopenko said, Russia will try to gain a foothold in one of the Donbas strongholds, Dobropillia, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, or Sviatohirsk, to use as a springboard, though he insisted Ukraine will not let it.

He also warned of a second front in the north. Part of the reserve massed by early winter, he said, could be thrown at Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, according to UA.News.

"The aim is to create a buffer zone in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions and continue the terror against our capital," he told the Yalta European Strategy forum, forcing Ukraine to keep reserves pinned there rather than sending them east.

October forces a tactics shift

September will bring the peak of Russia's summer offensive, Prokopenko said, because the attackers need a result to show for it. October will bring a change, driven by rain, fog, and shorter days.

"Russian forces will be forced to move from small infantry-group tactics to heavy armored vehicles and to attempt mechanized breakthroughs into the depth," he said.

That approach failed before, he argued, and will fail again.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced a reinforcement of Ukrainian positions in Donetsk Oblast. This comes amid a Russian offensive against the fortress cities that have defended the region since 2014. Zelenskyy announced the decision after a meeting with Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his army to seize the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by the end of this year, Zelenskyy said earlier. This comes amid plans in Russia to mobilize 300,000 Russians in the autumn, UNIAN reports.

After speaking with the military and hearing General Staff reports, Zelenskyy said he, Drapatyi, and Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara determined the next steps to strengthen Ukrainian positions. Two renewed groupings in Donetsk Oblast will be reinforced.

Two Azov commanders take the groupings

The groupings will be led by Hero of Ukraine Denys Prokopenko and Hero of Ukraine Andrii Biletskyi, Zelenskyy said. Prokopenko commands the 1st Azov Corps of the National Guard and led the defense of Mariupol in 2022. Biletskyi founded the Azov movement in 2014 and now commands the 3rd Army Corps.

Prepare for the worst

Robert “Madiar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, has commented on the decision.

“This is Smart War. Total synchronization with the Unmanned Systems Forces grouping, the shortest possible ‘sensor-to-shooter’ chain,” he said, adding that Russian forces should prepare for the worst possible consequences.

Analysts urged the move before it came

Earlier, two experts had also called for such a decision: Oleksandr Kovalenko of Information Resistance and Yurii Butusov, a drone company commander in the National Guard’s Khartia Corps.

"The eastern flank of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration is taking on an increasingly threatening character," said Kovalenko, suggesting Andrii Biletskyi's 3rd Army Corps, often described as one of the most capable formations in Ukraine's forces, can be used to stop the catastrophe.

Yurii Butusov said that if Ukraine's forces retreat from Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, it could ultimately lead to the loss of the Donbas.