Economies thrown into renewed turmoil as AI debt, Iran war and soaring government bond yields fuel alarm

At the height of the summer, the mood was optimistic in the world’s financial capitals. Powered by the AI revolution, the US stock market had rallied to a fresh all-time high, as investors bet the multitrillion-dollar investment spree would overshadow the hit from the Iran war.

Now the warning lights are flashing red. As the fighting in the Middle East intensifies without clear sign of a resolution, financial markets have been thrown into renewed turmoil. A slowdown looms in the AI arms race, and tinderbox conditions in the market for government debt are fuelling alarm.

Iran war and turbulent global bond markets add to pressure as rate decisions loom this week in major western economies

• Economics viewpoint: perilous UK economic conditions trace back to Trump

Central bankers in economies including the US, Japan and the UK will face a moment of truth this week, as surging inflation raises the prospect of higher interest rates.

Policymakers in all three countries will set rates in the next seven days against the backdrop of turbulent global bond markets.

As John Healey drafts his autumn budget, the US president’s policies continue to inflate debt servicing costs

Britain is not entirely in control of its own destiny, from the rising cost of the weekly shop, to the vaulting cost of government borrowing. What is said and done in Westminster matters. But the global backdrop is making life tough, not least in the deeds and words of one man: Donald Trump.

As John Healey drafts his plan for next month’s autumn budget, the perilous economic conditions the chancellor must navigate can be traced back to the door of the US president.