The contract is broken

The Mindich scandal exposed more than $100 million stolen from Ukraine’s nuclear operator Energoatom. It exposed the gap between the country Ukrainians are building and the government Zelenskyy is running.

When Russia invaded, Ukrainians made an unwritten deal with Zelenskyy: Lead us through this war, and we’ll follow.

The contract broke when Zelenskyy crossed a red line: soldiers dying at the front while his friends steal at home.

Protests in July proved Ukraine has evolved. When Zelenskyy’s team tried to subordinate the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) to protect his inner circle from the Energoatom investigation, teenagers flooded streets all over Ukraine with cardboard signs: “You promised a just state,” and veterans in wheelchairs: “We’re fighting for Ukraine, not for your impunity.”

Ten days later, Zelenskyy capitulated. The protesters won.

This was no anomaly, but a revelation. Ukrainian society, especially the generation inheriting this country, has evolved beyond post-Soviet patronage networks. They’re demanding a new bargain: dignity over loyalty, accountability over connections, and law over personal networks.

Our position on the July NABU coup attempt

Editorial: Zelenskyy opens a second front—against his own people

The impossible defense

Zelenskyy pretends corruption exists separately from him. But there are only two possibilities:

1. He knew his business partner ran a protection racket at Energoatom during wartime—making him complicit in betraying dying soldiers.
2. Or he didn’t know—raising questions about basic competence while celebrating birthdays with thieves.

Criminal or incompetent. Pick one.

This matters because Ukraine doesn’t have time to resolve this slowly. The gap between evolved society and stagnant leadership isn’t embarrassing—it's existentially dangerous.

Democracy is the weapon

Ukraine’s greatest asset isn’t its military technology—it’s its democratic legitimacy. That’s what keeps soldiers fighting even when exhausted, civilians enduring blackouts long past the point of patience, and partners sending billions despite their own fatigue.

The demoralization is real. Soldiers rotating from the front ask: “Are we still fighting for a country worth saving?” When the answer feels uncertain, desertion rates climb. Mobilization resistance hardens. The front weakens not because Russia is stronger, but because society loses faith.

Partners are watching. The EU froze $5.5 billion when Zelenskyy attacked NABU. The FBI is coordinating with NABU on the Mindich case. Western governments will push catastrophic "peace" deals the moment democratic legitimacy collapses.

But Ukraine has working institutions—NABU's work proved it. Ukraine also has its civic society—citizens demanding accountability even during war.

What Ukraine lacks is leadership aligned with where society has gone.

That gap could destroy everything.

Political ambitions are the cancer

Each catastrophic decision traces to protecting his political future. Seeking reelection while governing during existential crisis creates two deadly pathologies:

1. The patronage trap. Building a reelection coalition in Ukraine's system requires patronage networks—protect your people, they protect you. Prosecute your inner circle, and the network breaks. Your political base dissolves.

This creates a circle of incompetence: you cannot fire incompetent allies or promote talented critics without breaking the network.

Andriy Yermak epitomizes this. Officially Zelenskyy's chief of staff, unofficially more powerful than vice-president, defense minister, foreign minister, and prime minister combined—yet with no expertise justifying that power, monopolizing decision-making while demonstrating catastrophic incompetence. It was Yermak who orchestrated the attack on NABU when investigators reached Zelenskyy's circle.

He survives because he's indispensable to the patronage network, not because he's competent.

The pattern repeats everywhere: former energy chief Volodymyr Kudrytskyi secured $1.5 billion for Ukrenergo, then got dismissed and prosecuted for criticizing the energy minister. Yet Zelenskyy’s childhood friend-turned-security chief head Ivan Bakanov was only fired after catastrophic losses made costs impossible to ignore in 2022.

Competent officials who might criticize get removed. Incompetent loyalists get protected.

2. The popularity trap. Maintaining poll numbers for reelection requires avoiding unpopular decisions—even when those decisions are necessary for survival.

Mobilization is the most devastating example. Ukraine's troop shortage isn't accidental, but the result of postponing painful decisions. Russian forces advance daily. Exhausted troops fight understaffed. Soldiers die because replacements never arrive.

They're not being sacrificed for strategy, but for polls—hard decisions cannot be popular.

During peacetime, patronage breeds stagnation and poll-watching breeds paralysis. During war, both kill.

Every delayed mobilization decision costs lives at the front. Every protected corrupt official tells soldiers their sacrifice is worthless.

Presidents seeking reelection need: loyal coalitions (patronage), popular support (avoid hard choices), controlled information (attack critics), and no competent rivals.

Every electoral need conflicts with wartime governance needs.

You cannot simultaneously build a reelection machine and govern during an existential crisis.

The choice

Ukrainians are saying: We’ll stand with you until the war ends. But not beyond. Not with your friends. We expect honesty. We expect our sacrifice hasn’t been in vain.

This isn’t rejection; it’s the new social contract.

Two paths:

George Washington stepped down after two terms. Walking away from power cemented his greatness.

Winston Churchill led Britain to victory, then lost in a landslide two months later because voters wanted reform. He spent his final years bitter.

Washington announced the endpoint, built institutions that survived him, and became immortal.

Churchill clung to power until voters rejected him.

Ukraine has evolved. Can Zelenskyy?

The choice is concrete:

Announce publicly he will not seek reelection. This single decision removes every perverse incentive—no need to protect patronage networks, no fear of unpopular mobilization decisions, no reason to attack investigators.

Then immediately:

• Fire Andriy Yermak and dismantle the shadow government in the Office of the President
• Enable full NABU investigation without interference or coordination from the Presidential Office
• Appoint competent professionals over political loyalists, even if they might eclipse him
• Make the unpopular mobilization decisions Ukraine's survival requires
• Acknowledge the patronage system he promised to break has been entrenched instead

This isn't about shame. It's about freedom—his freedom to govern for Ukraine's survival rather than his political survival.

Ukrainians have already made their choice. They'll follow him through this war. But only if he leads the country they're fighting for, not the system they're fighting to leave behind.

More about the Energoatom scandal:

Zelenskyy tried to kill NABU. Then it exposed his friend’s $100M scheme.

Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, has been leading campaigns to supplant three top officials in the Ukrainian government, the Economist reported on July 6, citing multiple anonymous officials.

The story follows a corruption probe into Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Chernyshov, the highest-ranking official in Ukrainian history to face such charges while still in office. According to the Economist's sources, Yermak was a driving force behind the investigation.

Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelensky's close friend and chief adviser, spurred on the Chernyshov probe while also renewing attempts to replace Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) , and Prime Ministery Denys Shmyhal, three unnamed officials told the Economist.

There is no evidence that Yermak ordered an investigation into Chernyshov, the Economist reports, but officials told the outlet that he influenced the case by allowing it to progress while freezing other investigations.

Chernyshov ran afoul of Yermak by offering himself as an alternative liaison to Washington, the officials claimed. His removal would also reportedly clear the way for Deputy Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko, a Yermak protege, to assume the role of Prime Minister in the event of Shmyhal's dismissal.

Rumors of a government reshuffle unseating Shmyhal have circulated for months. Ukrainian media reported last summer that Zelensky was considering replacing the prime minister with Svyrydenko. While several key officials were replaced in a reshuffle in September 2024, Shmyhal kept his post.

Chernyshov, too, has said he will not step down from his role as deputy prime minister despite the ongoing corruption probe.  

Reports of imminent dismissal have also periodically surrounded Budanov, Ukraine's spy chief. Budanov has rejected such rumors as "Russian propaganda" in the past.

Sources told the Economist that Yermak was leading another effort to oust Budanov in June 2025. According to the outlet, warnings from the White House not to fire Budanov may have helped secure his position.

Politico reported in June that U.S. officials, particularly those working in the Trump administration, found Yermak's diplomatic style abrasive and off-putting, potentially risking U.S.-Ukrainian relations at a critical time.

Ukraine imposes sanctions on Russian financial, cryptocurrency schemes

Restrictions were imposed on 60 legal entities and 73 Russian citizens.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Officials in Washington are frustrated with the diplomatic efforts of Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, and believe he may be undermining Ukraine's efforts to win favor with U.S. President Donald Trump, Politico reported on June 19.

Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelensky's close friend and chief adviser, has represented Ukraine's interests in Washington since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.

According to 14 people who spoke to Politico, including U.S. and Ukrainian officials, many people in Washington find Yermak abrasive and uninformed, and fear that he is inaccurately conveying U.S. positions to Zelensky. While the Biden administration was willing to cooperate with Yermak, the Trump team is less accommodating — and more likely to rescind support for Ukraine.

"All the people (in the U.S.) who want to withdraw and abandon Ukraine are thrilled to have Yermak around," one person told Politico.

One person familiar with the situation described Yermak as a "bipartisan irritator" who also frustrated officials under U.S. President Joe Biden. The former administration, however, did not find Yermak's personality a valid reason to withdraw military and humanitarian aid from a key ally defending itself from an all-out war.

Trump's stance on Ukraine has been less supportive from the beginning. Since his inauguration in January, he has refused to approve new military aid packages for Kyiv or impose additional sanctions against Moscow. He has pursued warmer ties with Russia and criticized Zelensky more frequently and harshly than Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Any hopes Ukraine has of winning over Trump may be jeopardized by the administrations tense relationship with Yermak, Politico's sources suggested.

During Yermak's most recent visit to Washington, a last-minute trip in early June, he reportedly struggled to land meetings with Trump officials. One person familiar with the visit described Yermak as an "existential liability for Ukraine."

Sources described Yermak as overly demanding and ignorant of U.S. politics and processes. One person accused Yermak of acting as if Ukraine was the "center of the world" and said his attitude "has already affected the relationship (with Trump)."

In a statement to Politico, Yermak said he was doing everything in his power to protect and support Ukraine.

"If that means being considered 'challenging' by others — so be it," he said.

"I will wait many more hours outside any door if that helps my country and my president's mission. I have no ambition to fully grasp how American politics works — I come to speak about the country I know best: Ukraine."

Once firm, support for Ukraine among its neighbors wavers amid a populist surge

Fourth year into Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the decisive support Kyiv found among its neighbors to the west is beginning to show cracks. Once resolute Poland is seeing rising skepticism toward Ukraine, underscored by President-elect Karol Nawrocki’s election victory. Slovakia’s pro-Ukrainian government was ousted by Russian-friendly populists in the

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek