A reported 28-point peace plan allegedly drafted by US and Russian officials would force Ukraine into unilateral concessions that mirror Russia’s 2022 demands in Istanbul, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The think tank states that the plan includes Ukraine withdrawing from critical territory in Donetsk Oblast and freezing the frontline in the south — steps that would disproportionately favor Russia.

Proposed peace plan seen as strategic victory for Russia

The Institute for the Study of War reported that the draft proposal would amount to "Ukraine’s full capitulation." The plan would hand Russia strategic land and positions without any clear reciprocal concessions from Moscow. ISW stated the proposal is “fundamentally the same” as Russia’s 2022 demands during talks in Istanbul.

"The reported proposed peace plan would deprive Ukraine of critical defensive positions and capabilities necessary to defend against future Russian aggression, apparently in exchange for nothing," ISW wrote.

Explore further

US-Russia peace plan, negotiated without Ukraine, lists Kyiv’s concessions but reportedly stays silent on security guarantees

The plan includes Ukraine’s withdrawal from the rest of Donetsk Oblast, a move ISW assesses would disproportionately favor Russia. The oblast contains vital Ukrainian military and logistical infrastructure, including the long-standing Fortress Belt defensive line established in 2014. For over a decade, Russia has tried and failed to take this area by force. 

"The reported peace plan would give this significant land to Russia — apparently for no specified compromise — sparing Russia the time, effort, and manpower that it could use elsewhere in Ukraine during renewed aggression," ISW says.

Explore further

Trump’s peace plan sounds like it came straight from Moscow, Finnish foreign minister says

Ceding Donetsk would open the door to more Russian offensives

The think tank notes that the Kremlin has repeatedly said that any withdrawal from Donbas would be a precondition for peace talks — not a result.

ISW further warned that Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk would give Russian troops better positions to advance into other key oblasts. In particular, they could push deeper into southern Kharkiv Oblast, eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and even into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces might also attempt to cross the Oskil River and later threaten Kharkiv City from several directions.

Meanwhile, freezing the frontline in southern Ukraine would provide Russian troops with the opportunity to rest and rebuild, ISW noted. This would set the stage for renewed attacks against cities like Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which remain among the Kremlin’s stated objectives.

"Russia would therefore have its choice of multiple, mutually supportive offensive operations to undertake should Ukraine cede Donetsk Oblast to Russia and agree to freeze the frontline in southern Ukraine, especially if there is no meaningful security guarantee mechanisms to prevent future Russian aggression and if Ukraine concedes to Russia’s demand of reduced military size and capacity," ISW concluded.

Following media reports about a possible peace plan discussed by the US and Russia, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said the proposals seem to have been written in Moscow, according to YLE. She made her remarks during a visit by NATO ambassadors to northern Finland's Rovaniemi on 20 November, where she also delivered a lecture on Arctic policy and security at the University of Lapland.

Valtonen: Peace plan looks like it was written in Moscow

Valtonen told YLE the leaked terms resemble proposals that could have originated in the Kremlin. She warned that, if accurate, they "wipe the UN Charter off the table" entirely. Valtonen said that if the reported terms are accurate, neither Ukraine nor its European allies could accept them.

According to her, these kinds of ideas have been circulating in various unofficial documents, but none offer a basis for a just peace.

Valtonen emphasized that Finland and the rest of Europe remain committed to achieving a fair and lasting peace for Ukraine. 

“We’ve been working toward this for four years,” she said. 

Explore further

Trump team meets top Putin envoy for three days in Miami — drafts secret Ukraine peace deal, Axios says

However, she also noted that there has been no formal notification or official proposal from any government involved.

“There has been no official information from the United States, from Ukraine, or from anywhere else that would really trigger any actual discussion,” Valtonen stated.

Finland warns against legitimizing Moscow’s demands

According to Valtonen, Finland, along with other European countries, has decided to support Ukraine and its people. She stressed that Ukraine is not only defending its territory but also standing for democracy and the rule of law.

“None of that is possible if the world follows Russia’s playbook,” she said. 

Explore further

US-Russia peace plan, negotiated without Ukraine, lists Kyiv’s concessions but reportedly stays silent on security guarantees

Valtonen added that although Trump wants peace in Ukraine and is open to hearing different ideas, it is crucial that US partners understand the global implications of such a deal.

“We are fully convinced that they understand how significant this peace would be not just for Ukraine but for Europe and actually for the entire world order,” Valtonen told YLE.

Real peace talks still far away

Valtonen stated that any path to peace must begin with a ceasefire, something Ukraine has already agreed to. Finland has proposed such a step to Russia, but Moscow has refused to make any concessions.

“We are still very far from being able to make any kind of peace agreement,” she said. 

The Finnish minister added that Finland remains committed to supporting Ukraine through defense materials and sanctions on Russia.