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ISW: Putin and Gerasimov keep boasting of sweeping wins in Ukraine—but even Russian milbloggers call them fiction

Par :Yuri Zoria
27 octobre 2025 à 05:08

isw putin gerasimov keep boasting sweeping wins ukraine—but even russian milbloggers call fiction · post president vladimir (left) chief general staff valery (right) arrive command russia’s joint group forces during

Russian leaders keep claiming non-existent major battlefield victories in Ukraine, yet these boasts are being publicly dismissed even by pro-war Russian milbloggers, who describe the situation on the ground as chaotic and accuse the military leadership of inflating results, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on 26 October.

This comes amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, as Moscow has for months concentrated its main efforts on capturing Donetsk Oblast, while continuing to shell frontline cities within artillery range and launching air strikes on civilian areas and energy infrastructure in rear cities to disrupt power and heating supply during the cold season.

Putin and Gerasimov outline sweeping operations

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov have continued to issue claims of major battlefield victories while reaffirming the Kremlin’s intent to capture all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts.

ISW says Putin held a meeting on 26 October with Gerasimov and commanders of Russia’s groupings of forces. The event drew attention because Putin appeared in military uniform—only the third such appearance since the start of the full-scale invasion and just weeks after the previous one on 16 September. During his report to Putin, Gerasimov said Russian forces were continuing operations to seize all territory within the four illegally annexed Ukrainian oblasts.

Gerasimov claimed that Russian units had allegedly surrounded up to 5,500 Ukrainian troops near Pokrovsk and blocked a group of 31 Ukrainian battalions close to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast. He said elements of the 2nd Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District and the 51st Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District had completed an encirclement in the area. Gerasimov described the alleged success as a result of Russia’s recent focus on using drones to attack Ukrainian ground lines of communication.

He further claimed that Russian forces from the Western Grouping had ostensibly encircled Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast. According to him, detachments from the 68th Motorized Rifle Division crossed the Oskil River south of the town and, together with units from the 47th Tank Division and 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Guards Tank Army, had allegedly cut off Ukrainian troops on the eastern bank. Gerasimov stated that 18 Ukrainian battalions were trapped in Kupiansk.

He also declared Russian progress in the northeast and east of Ukraine, including the seizure of more than 70% of Vovchansk, completion of fighting in Yampil, and the capture of Dronivka and Pleshchiivka. Gerasimov said Russian troops continued urban fighting in Siversk and Kostiantynivka.

ISW said it had observed no evidence to substantiate any of these claims. The think tank reported that Russian forces had seized only about 23% of Vovchansk, while footage from 24 October showed limited Russian activity in eastern Kostiantynivka that likely resulted from a small infiltration rather than a major advance. ISW said there was no visual confirmation of Russian forces operating in Siversk. It added that the Kremlin "is also portraying the seizures of small settlements that are not operationally significant as major successes for informational effects." Both Dronivka and Pleshchiivka are under six square kilometers in area and had pre-war populations of about 600.
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Russian milbloggers openly challenge the official version

Several Russian milbloggers said the claims of encirclements in Pokrovsk and Kupiansk were false. One wrote that a wide corridor still separates Russian groups west and north of Pokrovsk, while another pointed out that Russian fire control over Ukrainian supply lines does not mean a full encirclement.

Others highlighted the porous nature of the front and said that Russian forces often declare towns captured while Ukrainian troops still hold positions there. One described the situation in Pokrovsk and Kupiansk as “100% chaos.” Another blogger said Gerasimov was “getting ahead of himself again,” predicting that the general expected reality to eventually align with his optimistic reports. That same source argued that the exaggerated claims were meant to influence US President Donald Trump by giving him the impression that Ukrainian forces faced collapse.

"Gerasimov similarly presented exaggerated territorial claims in late August 2025, including about Kupiansk, that Russian milbloggers heavily criticized," ISW wrote.

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