Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that military escalation will compel Ukraine to accept his terms, while US President Donald Trump is unlikely to strengthen Kyiv’s defense, according to Bloomberg.

Sources close to the Russian authorities said that during the Anchorage meeting, Putin concluded that the US does not plan active intervention. This prompted the Kremlin to intensify attacks on military and civilian targets in Ukraine and continue strikes on energy infrastructure.

According to the UN, Russia has already killed 14,000 civilians in the war, with additional losses in Mariupol potentially reaching 100,000 civilians.

Escalation as a pressure strategy

In the month following the talks, the number of drone and missile attacks increased by approximately 46%, according to Bloomberg, based on data from the Ukrainian Air Force. On 16 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that since the beginning of September, Russia had launched 3,500 drones of various types, nearly 190 missiles, and over 2,500 bombs.

These included some of the largest missile and drone strikes since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, damaging government and residential buildings in Kyiv and Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv.

This clearly indicates that Putin does not want to end the war against Ukraine. British MI6 Chief Richard Moore also confirmed this, saying that he sees “no evidence” of the Kremlin seeking peace talks or a settlement in Ukraine. He emphasized that the Russian president shows no interest in negotiations that do not involve Ukraine’s capitulation.

Conclusion: The Kremlin continues escalation

Despite the increase in airstrikes, Russia’s territorial advance has slowed, even with intensified pressure along the front lines. Russia redeployed 100,000 soldiers to attack Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk, yet Zelenskyy reported that Ukrainian forces managed to retake some territory in Donetsk.

“Russia’s summer 2025 offensive failed to secure control over any targeted cities in eastern Ukraine,” said Alex Kokcharov, a geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics.

Putin plans new victories before winter

The Russian president will continue participating in any ongoing dialogue with the US, but will act according to his own strategy.

“Putin seeks to achieve some visible victories by winter, but he is failing on the battlefield so far,” said Nikolai Petrov, a senior research fellow at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre.

He says that that’s why “Putin turns to nuclear blackmail and psychological pressure, including mass bombardments.”

On 19 September, the Polish Border Guard reported that two Russian fighter jets conducted a low flyover above Petrobaltic, Poland’s only offshore oil and gas platform in the Baltic Sea, TVP World writes. 

Unlike Turkiye, which shot down a Russian Su-24 in 2015 for violating its airspace, European NATO members respond to such actions only by strengthening patrols and deploying additional forces under Operation Eastern Sentry.

Poland also did not down the jets over its oil platform. 

NATO on alert

Polish Armed Forces and other services were immediately informed of the violation. On 10 September, Poland shot down 4 out of 19 Russian drones in its airspace with support from NATO aircraft. On the same night, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed more than 380 drones by mobile fire groups across the country. 

Moscow denied targeting Poland after drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that no targets on Polish territory were intended. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the EU and NATO “accuse Russia of provocations daily,” and that Western institutions “lack evidence to support their accusations.”

A week later, Warsaw recorded another night of drone provocations from Russia and Belarus. The country’s Border Guard Service reported heightened activity of the enemy targets attempting to violate its airspace. 

Escalation in the Baltic Region

On the same day, three Russian MiG-31 fighters entered Estonian airspace without authorization. They remained for about 12 minutes before being intercepted by Italian F-35 jets.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called these actions part of a systematic Russian campaign against Europe and NATO: “Small steps at first, and eventually major losses.”