Finnish President Alexander Stubb said on Tuesday that Western countries are continuing to develop a framework for security guarantees for Ukraine, Reuters reports.

The discussions are focused on planning security arrangements for Ukraine after a potential ceasefire, with Western officials working to ensure protection without provoking further escalation.

Stubb added that any Western security measures would depend on a peace agreement with Russia, but he said he is not optimistic a ceasefire will be achieved soon.

Russia’s repeated rejection of Western security proposals for Ukraine puts the process in doubt. European leaders have emphasized that Moscow’s consent is essential. 

Stubb said coordination with the United States is central, as it would provide the main support for any post-ceasefire security arrangement. “We are working closely with our military chiefs to draw up concrete plans for what these security operations could look like,” he said.

German officials have previously stressed that Ukraine would need NATO-style security guarantees before any peace deal. 

Russia knows its demands are impossible. That’s the point.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb spelled this out during a Fox News interview, describing Moscow’s approach as calculated theater.

“That’s typical Russian negotiation tactics,” Stubb told the One Nation program. “You say one unacceptable thing at the beginning and then you start retracting. It happens all the time.”

Imagine giving up American territories to Russia

Stubb offered American viewers a stark comparison to grasp what Russia actually wants from Ukraine. Picture the US surrendering Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland to an adversary. Then imagine that adversary building “some kind of superhighway through which you can attack New York.”

“That’s what Putin is asking from Ukraine,” the Finnish president said.

The math on Russian progress tells its own story. After years of trying to capture the Donbas region since 2014, Russia controls 75% of the territory. But half of that came immediately at the start of the conflict. The remaining gains?

“He’s really advancing just tiny bit at a time,” Stubb noted.

The territorial comparison isn’t new to diplomatic circles. During 18 August White House talks with Trump, President Zelenskyy and European leaders used the same Florida analogy with the US President—and it resonated.

Ukraine needs three-tier security framework

Stubb sees those recent discussions with Trump as laying groundwork for future security arrangements.

“One of the key outcomes of what I would call a successful meeting with President Trump—we started to work on the details of future security guarantees,” he said.

Stubb outlined a three-tier security framework, explaining that Ukraine would serve as its own primary defender with what he described as one of the world’s most modern and largest armies.

Europe would provide the second layer of support, while the United States would contribute some form of assistance as the third component.

But here’s Stubb’s bottom line: “It’s not going to be Russia to tell Europe or the US what they can or cannot do with security guarantees.”

On 24 August, US Vice President J.D. Vance told NBC News that Russia will inevitably have “some stake” in security guarantee discussions for Ukraine, arguing that Moscow’s participation is necessary since they are “the critical party necessary to stop the killing.”

Vance also reaffirmed that American military personnel will not be deployed to Ukraine, but indicated that Washington would maintain an active role in Ukrainian security alongside European nations who would take on significant responsibilities.

Finland's parliament voted on June 19 to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel landmines, citing growing security concerns from Russia's aggressive posture and the threat it poses to the region, Reuters reported.

The vote aligns Finland with its Baltic allies, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, whose parliaments have already approved similar exits from the treaty.

Defending the decision earlier this week, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said the security reality along Finland's 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border with Russia had changed dramatically since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to TVP.

"The reality in the endgame is that we have as our neighboring country an aggressive, imperialist state called Russia, which itself is not a member of the Ottawa Treaty and which itself uses landmines ruthlessly," Stubb said.

Russia has widely deployed landmines across Ukrainian territory since launching its invasion in 2022, a tactic condemned by human rights organizations and Western governments.

Finland, which joined NATO in 2023, has significantly ramped up its defense posture amid growing concern over potential Russian provocations. The country closed its border with Russia over a year ago, accusing Moscow of orchestrating a "hybrid operation" by directing asylum seekers toward Finnish territory. Helsinki claims such hybrid tactics have intensified since it joined the alliance.

The Finnish Border Guard completed the first 35 kilometers (22 miles) of a planned 200-kilometer (124-mile) fence along its eastern frontier on May 21. The move came amid growing evidence of Russian military infrastructure expansion near the Finnish border.

Finland is "closely monitoring and assessing Russia's activities and intentions," Finland's Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen told AFP on May 22.

"We have excellent capabilities to observe Russian operations. As a member of the alliance, Finland holds a strong security position."

Russia's Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said in December 2024 that Moscow must be ready for a potential conflict with NATO within the next decade. Western officials have repeatedly warned of the possibility that Moscow could target NATO members in the coming years.

Diplomacy in crisis: G7 letdowns reveal limits to Western solidarity on Ukraine

KANANASKIS, Canada — The Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit ended on June 17 with no joint statement in support of Ukraine, no commitments to provide desperately needed U.S. weapons, and no meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump. The Ukrainian delegation headed into the summit,

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat