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Putin choses visit to main Ukraine’s war sponsor instead of meeting with Zelenskyy, despite Trump’s deadline

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, photo via Wikimedia.

Instead of peace: parades, missiles, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived in China on a four-day visit, RBC reports. 

He was invited by Xi Jinping to a military parade marking the anniversary of the end of World War II. This comes just as US President Donald Trump’s deadline for a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop the war is expiring.

Trump’s deadline and Russia’s new attacks

The American president gave Putin two weeks to decide on negotiations.

However, the Kremlin not only failed to respond but also launched two massive attacks on Ukraine. More than 1,100 targets have been used, from Shaheds to ballistic missiles. This clearly demonstrates that for Putin, the war matters more than peace. Previously, he had called Zelenskyy an “illegitimate president” of a non-existent country.

SCO Summit in China: Who’s attending?

Beyond the parade, Putin will participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, scheduled from 31 August to 1 September in Tianjin. The SCO includes Russia, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus.

More than 20 world leaders are expected. The Kremlin dictator plans to meet with Xi Jinping, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

A Russian drone caught filming its own camera test in a Chinese factory before being shot down in Ukraine

India between China and the US

Earlier, Trump imposed tariffs on India over its imports of Russian oil, which fuels Moscow’s war machine. This sparked outrage in Delhi, which pointed out that Europe continues buying Russian oil without facing sanctions.

According to The New York Times, Trump also pressured India to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. After Delhi refused, he retaliated with tariffs.

Against this backdrop, India may strengthen cooperation with Russia and China, both key players in the oil and gas market, and part of the “axis of upheaval”, the growing anti-American collaboration between the nations. 

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The slow squeeze: Russia’s oil empire is bleeding cash

Rosneft sign

Russia’s oil cash machine is breaking down. Rosneft just posted a catastrophic 68% profit collapse, with free cash flow plunging 75%. This is the clearest sign yet that Western sanctions combined with Ukrainian strikes are systematically dismantling the Kremlin’s war funding.

The numbers are brutal: net income crashed from 773 billion rubles ($9.68 billion) to just 245 billion ($3.07 billion) in the first half of 2025, while revenue fell 18% despite steady production.

Most telling?

Free cash flow collapsed to just 173 billion rubles ($2.17 billion)—a 75% drop that’s catastrophic for a company that paid out $6.78 billion in dividends and needs billions more for Arctic projects and war funding.

Ukraine’s drone war pays dividends

Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin’s complaints tell the whole story. He blamed “tighter EU and US sanction restrictions” for forcing steeper discounts on Russian crude, while a stronger ruble crushed export earnings.

Translation: the Western financial squeeze is working exactly as designed.

Even more revealing, Sechin is now publicly griping about the OPEC+ strategy (the cartel of 22 major oil producers, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, that coordinates global production), showing Russia can no longer influence global oil policy from a position of strength.

The man once skeptical of OPEC cooperation is now begging the cartel to prop up prices.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes are systematically crippling Russian refining capacity. Depending on sources, up to 17% of Russia’s refining capacity is offline, with some regions introducing fuel rationing and wholesale gasoline prices up 45% despite falling global crude prices.

The strategic validation

For Western policymakers, Rosneft’s collapse validates the slow-squeeze approach.

Russia maintains production but struggles with profitability—exactly what sanctions architects intended.

The company still managed to raise capital spending 10% to 769 billion rubles ($9.63 billion), focusing on remote Arctic projects like Vostok Oil that won’t deliver volumes for years. But it’s paying 2024 dividends of 542 billion rubles ($6.78 billion)—more than triple this year’s actual cash generation.

That math doesn’t work long-term.

Rosneft crisis chart
Rosneft’s financial collapse: The oil giant’s free cash flow plunged 75% in the first half of 2025, while still paying out $6.78 billion in dividends—more than triple its cash generation. The unsustainable math shows Western sanctions and Ukrainian strikes are draining the company. Chart: Euromaidan Press

Watch these numbers

Two metrics matter most: Russian crude discounts to Brent prices and USD/RUB exchange rates. Small moves in either can swing Russia’s oil revenues by billions.

Rosneft now budgets conservatively at $45/barrel oil—signaling Moscow expects prices and sanctions pressure to persist. Combined with Ukrainian infrastructure strikes and Western financial restrictions, Russia’s oil empire faces its toughest test since the Soviet collapse.

The takeaway for global energy markets: economic warfare is working—slowly and systematically.

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Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s largest Baltic gas hub in Ust-Luga strike (VIDEO)

A strike at the heart of Russia’s gas empire! Ukrainian forces hit a gas processing complex in Russia’s Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast, a strategic facility of the aggressor country in the Baltic region, according to Armiia TV. 

Sources in intelligence services say the operation was conducted jointly by the Security Service of Ukraine and Special Operations Forces. Eyewitness videos on social media confirm the attack, showing a massive explosion and a large-scale fire.

Target and consequences of the strike

“Ukrainian drones struck the gas processing complex of Novatek, the largest liquefied gas producer in Russia. The hit targeted the cryogenic fractionation unit for gas condensate/gas, which is the ‘heart’ of the facility’s technological processes,” the sources say.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1959687499850330484

This is the second successful attack on the Ust-Luga port in 2025, the first occurring in early January.

Screenshot
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Strategic importance of Ust-Luga’s object

“Ust-Luga is Russia’s largest maritime hub in the Baltic. Shadow fleet, sanctioned oil — everything passes through there,” Lieutenant Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, stated

Thanks to precise drone strikes, the operation disrupted the work of a key Russian logistics hub supplying liquefied gas and oil to external markets.

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The Christian right’s persecution complex

Last week, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to right wing influencer Ben Shapiro, founder of "The Daily Wire". The interview showed how much stock Zelensky puts in speaking to a MAGA and Republican audience. It is with this audience that Zelensky has little credibility and Ukraine little sympathy, as Donald Trump calls for a quick peace deal, even if it means Ukraine ceding vast swathes of territory to the Russian aggressor. Zelensky needs Shapiro to combat conservative apathy about the fate of Ukraine, and combat its admiration and respect for Putin as a supposed bastion of traditional values and religious belief. 

Two questions into the interview, Shapiro confronts Zelensky with a conservative talking point. Is Ukraine persecuting members of the Russian Orthodox Church? It is a view that is frequently aired in Christian conservative circles in the United States. Just two months ago, Tucker Carlson interviewed Robert Amsterdam, a lawyer representing the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. Amsterdam alleged that USAID, or some other U.S. government-sponsored organization, created an alternative orthodox church "that would be completely free of what they viewed as the dangerous Putin influence." This, Amsterdam said, is a violation of the U.S. commitment to religious freedom. Trump-supporting talking heads have frequently described Ukraine as killing Christians, while Vladimir Putin is described as a defender of traditional Christian values.

On April 22, Putin met with the Patriarch of the Serbian Orthodox Church and Patriarch Kirill, his Russian counterpart. The Serbian Patriarch told the Russian president that when he met with the Patriarch of Jerusalem, the latter said "we, the Orthodox, have one trump card... Vladimir Putin." It was the Serbian Orthodox Church's desire, the Patriarch said, that "if there is a new geopolitical division, we should be... in the Russian world." It is Orthodoxy's perceived political, rather than purely spiritual, link to Russia that the Ukrainian parliament was hoping to sever in August last year by passing legislation to ban religious groups with links to Moscow.

The Russian orthodox church, which is almost fully under Kremlin’s control, is one of Moscow’s most potent tools for interfering in the domestic affairs of post-Soviet countries. Its ties to Russian intelligence are well-documented and run deep. Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, spent the 1970s spying for the KGB in Switzerland. Today, he blesses Russian weapons and soldiers before they’re deployed to Ukraine.

While Christian conservatives in the U.S. accuse Ukraine of violating religious freedoms and "killing" Christians, Zelensky says that it is, in fact, Russian forces that are persecuting Ukrainian Christians. On Easter, Zelensky said 67 clergymen had been "killed or tortured by Russian occupiers" and over 600 Christian religious sites destroyed. I spoke to the Emmy-winning journalist Simon Ostrovsky who said Russia targets Christian denominations.

"If we're talking about an evangelical church," he told me, "then the members of the church will be accused of being American spies. And if we're talking about the Ukrainian Catholic Church, they'll consider it to be a Nazi Church.” But, Ostrovsky added, "Russians have been able to communicate a lot more effectively than Ukraine, particularly to the right in the United States. Russia has been able to. make the case that it is in fact the Ukrainians who are suppressing freedom of religion in Ukraine and not the Russians, which is absurd."

Back in 2013, Pat Buchanan, an influential commentator and former Reagan staffer, asked if Putin was "one of us." That is, a U.S.-style conservative taking up arms in the "culture war for mankind's future". It is a perception Putin has successfully exploited, able to position himself as the lone bulwark against Western and "globalist" decadence. Now with Trump in the White House, propelled there by Christian conservative support, which has stayed steadfastly loyal to the president even as other conservatives question policies such as tariffs and deportations without due process. With the Christian right as Trump's chief constituency, how can he negotiate with Putin free of their natural affinity for the president not just of Russia but arguably traditional Christianity?

The battle over religious freedom in Ukraine is not just a local concern – it’s a global information war, where narratives crafted in Moscow find eager amplifiers among U.S. Christian conservatives. By painting Ukraine as a persecutor of Christians and positioning Russia as the last defender of “traditional values,” the Kremlin has successfully exported its cultural propaganda to the West. This has already had real-world consequences: shaping U.S. policy debates, undermining support for Ukraine, and helping authoritarian leaders forge alliances across borders. The case of Ukraine shows how religious identity can be weaponized as a tool of soft power, blurring the line between faith and geopolitics, and revealing how easily domestic debates can be hijacked for foreign influence. In a world where the persecutors pose as the persecuted, understanding how narratives are manipulated is essential to defending both democracy and genuine religious freedom.

A version of this story was published in this week’s Coda Currents newsletter. Sign up here.

The post The Christian right’s persecution complex appeared first on Coda Story.

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