Commenting on Russia’s 12 July drone attack, ISW said it continues to assess that Russia’s ongoing large-scale air assaults are intended to degrade Ukrainian and Western morale and highlight Ukraine’s need for continued Western support for its interceptor drone program and for Western-supplied air defense systems, especially US Patriots.

ISW: Russia targets morale in Ukraine and the West

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is using mass air attacks not solely to cause damage, but to psychologically exhaust Ukraine and its allies. ISW emphasized that this psychological dimension is now central to Russia’s strategy, and Ukraine’s continued ability to protect its skies depends heavily on consistent Western aid.

“ISW continues to assess that Russia’s ongoing large-scale strikes are intended to degrade Ukrainian and Western morale and underscore Ukraine’s need for continued Western support for Ukraine’s interceptor drone program and for the continued supply of Western air defense systems, especially US-provided Patriot systems,” ISW wrote.

ISW has already noted previously that “The continued increase in the size of strike packages is likely intended to support Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian morale in the face of constant Russian aggression.”

Russia launched third massive drone-missile strike this month

As Euromaidan Press reported yesterday, Russia launched a major combined drone and missile strike overnight on 11–12 July — its third large-scale air attack this month. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russia launched 339 Iranian-designed Shahed-type drones and 258 decoy UAVs, totaling 597 drones, from several locations within Russia. Russia also fired 26 Kh-101 cruise missiles from airspace over Saratov Oblast.

Ukraine’s air defenders downed 319 Shaheds and 25 missiles, while another 258 drones were either suppressed or lost via electronic warfare. Despite successful interception, critical infrastructure and civilian facilities were damaged in Chernivtsi, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Lviv, Sumy, and Volyn oblasts.

Mykola Kalashnyk, head of the Kyiv Oblast Military Administration, said Ukraine’s Clean Sky interceptor drone program downed over 50 drones during the overnight strike.

Russia’s drone strikes target Ukrainian morale more than military assets, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports. Moscow now prioritizes psychological pressure over battlefield gain, using massive drone swarms and targeted civilian damage.

Russia turns drone swarms into tools of psychological warfare to degrade morale

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its 9 July report:

“The continued increase in the size of strike packages is likely intended to support Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian morale in the face of constant Russian aggression.”

Colonel Yurii Ihnat of the Ukrainian Air Force said Moscow launched over 400 decoy drones in one attack on 9 July, which included 728 UAVs and 13 missiles. The decoy drones also carried warheads, creating not just confusion but real explosions on Ukrainian soil.

ISW notes that this tactic intends to overwhelm air defenses and emotionally exhaust Ukraine’s population. Modified drones now cause wider damage across larger areas, increasing the psychological burden on civilians.

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Ukrainian forces face constant drone waves, many with no clear military objective.

“ISW assessed in previous years that Russia has used strike packages targeting civilian areas to generate a morale effect in Ukraine, as seems to be the case with the most recent strikes,” the think tank wrote.

Ukraine says enlistment offices are under attack to block mobilization

Colonel Vitaly Sarantsev of the Ukrainian Ground Forces told the Washington Post that Russia now targets enlistment offices. These strikes aim to scare people away from joining the military. Sarantsev added that Moscow wants to make Ukrainians believe recruitment is dangerous.

Russia may escalate drone strategy further

The New York Times reported on 9 July that Russia may soon launch over 1,000 drones in a single strike. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Commander Major Robert Brovdi warned about the same possibility.

Electronic warfare expert Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov said Russia already increased Shahed production sevenfold. He expects up to 800 drones per strike soon.

ISW previously reported that Russia has expanded long-range drone production. Some production lines reportedly involve Chinese companies manufacturing “Geran-2 drones (the Russian-made analogue of the Iranian-origin Shahed-136 drones)” drones.