Russia could assemble a strike force for an offensive into northern Ukraine by February 2027 if Moscow launches another mobilization, Ukrainian military intelligence's (HUR) deputy chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi told RBC-Ukraine on 18 August.

Skibitskyi said another mobilization could follow Russia’s September parliamentary elections. Depending on its scale, that call-up could produce a strike force by February 2027. Skibitskyi based the February estimate on Russia’s 2022 mobilization. He said some personnel reached the front in December 2022, while combat-ready units arrived in January 2023.

Earlier warnings identified a northern route

The February estimate follows Ukrainian warnings about possible attacks across the northern border. In May, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was tracking five scenarios for expanding the war through the north, including an advance through Chernihiv Oblast toward Kyiv.

Syrskyi called an attack from Russia’s Bryansk Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast Moscow’s most realistic northern option, ranking it above an operation through Belarus. Its purpose, he said, would be to draw Ukrainian forces away from the east and south.

Russia has also struggled to prepare other major campaigns as Ukraine targeted the forces and systems needed to carry them out. ISW assessed that Ukrainian drones likely disrupted preparations for a spring–summer offensive in Donetsk Oblast, while a planned Russian naval-drone campaign reportedly stalled after Starlink access was blocked.

Ukrainian intelligence says Russia lacks the manpower

Skibitskyi said Moscow cannot form the units required for a new offensive without mobilization. HUR estimates Russia lost more personnel than it recruited in both June and July. The shortfall reached 3,000 in June and at least 1,000 in July, meaning monthly contracts no longer replaced battlefield losses.

The agency says Russia’s operational reserve is about one-tenth the size of its combat component against Ukraine. Moscow also lacks enough personnel to expand brigades into divisions, while recruitment for its unmanned-systems forces has reached only 30% of its quota.

CSIS estimated in January that Russia had suffered losses unmatched by any major state since World War II while advancing extremely slowly.

Russia launched a massive attack on one of Ukraine’s DTEK thermal power plants, severely damaging equipment and forcing the facility to stop generating electricity, the energy company said on 18 August.

The strike comes as Russia continues its campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of another winter, with Ukrainian officials warning that Moscow is expected to intensify attacks on critical civilian systems.

DTEK power plant sustains significant damage

DTEK said Russian forces heavily damaged equipment at one of its thermal power plants, forcing the station to halt electricity generation. The company did not identify the plant or provide an estimate of when it could resume operations.

DTEK’s thermal power plants have been attacked more than 230 times since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, according to the company.

During the previous major attack on 12 June, one DTEK employee was killed, the company said.

Ukraine faces another winter of energy attacks

The latest strike adds to extensive damage Russia has inflicted on Ukraine’s power system. Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said earlier this month that Russia has destroyed or damaged more than 80% of Ukraine’s power-generating capacity.

Ukraine is preparing for another difficult winter after repeated Russian strikes last winter caused widespread damage to electricity and heating infrastructure.

Shmyhal has also warned that Russia could broaden its campaign this winter by targeting Ukraine’s water systems. Such attacks could make prolonged power outages significantly more dangerous for civilians by disrupting water supplies and sewage systems.

Kyiv Oblast faces mounting Russian attacks

The power plant strike came as Russia launched another large drone attack on Ukraine, with Kyiv Oblast the main target. Ukraine’s Air Force said dozens of drones were launched during the day, with most intercepted or suppressed by Ukrainian air defenses.

The latest assault is part of a broader pattern of Russian attacks on Kyiv Oblast in recent weeks. Alongside energy infrastructure, Russian forces have repeatedly targeted warehouses, distribution centers and other logistics facilities around the capital, disrupting the systems that supply Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine.

With winter approaching, the combination of attacks on energy generation and civilian logistics is adding pressure to a country already dealing with years of damage to its critical infrastructure.