Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have reaffirmed Russia’s commitment to a war of attrition against Ukraine. In a report published on 18 September, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pushed back against the Kremlin’s narrative, reiterating that Russia’s victory is not inevitable.

Putin’s attrition theory resurfaces

According to the ISW report, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on 18 September that over 700,000 Russian soldiers are on the frontline in Ukraine. Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, a day earlier, said Russian forces are advancing on “practically all fronts”. These statements reflect Putin’s broader theory of victory: that Russia can continue slow advances indefinitely and exhaust Ukraine and the West.

“Putin’s and Gerasimov’s recent statements are part of wider Kremlin efforts to push Ukraine and the West to immediately acquiesce to Putin’s maximalist demands out of fear that a Russian victory is inevitable and that Russian aggression will only increase in the future,” ISW wrote.

ISW highlights mounting Russian weaknesses

ISW assessed that “a Russian victory is not inevitable,” and that Ukraine and the West Єcan leverage several key Russian weaknesses to force Putin to change his calculus and engage in good-faith negotiations.”

Russia’s military gains have come at steep costs. On 9 September, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russia suffered 299,210 casualties — killed and wounded — since January 2025. Russia’s slow territorial gains have come with disproportionate losses.

ISW noted that Putin’s economic mismanagement during the war has led to unsustainable spending, inflation, and labor shortages, further undermining the country’s ability to maintain the current pace of war.

US President Donald Trump also commented on 18 September that Russia is incurring more losses than Ukraine and suggested that if oil prices fall, Putin will have to “drop out” of the war. Russian oil revenues continue to play a critical role in funding the Kremlin’s war effort.

Kremlin continues to demand Ukrainian capitulation

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated on 18 September that Moscow will only compromise if a peace settlement guarantees Russia’s “legitimate security interests” and those of Russians in Ukraine, ISW reported.

He also claimed that the United States understands the so-called “root causes” of the war. ISW noted that such language has long been used by Russian officials to reinforce original Kremlin demands — demands they seek to achieve either militarily or through pressure disguised as diplomacy.

An overwhelming majority of Ukrainians maintain confidence in their country’s ability to achieve victory in the full-scale war against Russia, provided adequate Western support is sustained, according to a new survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

The poll found that 76% of respondents believe Ukraine can win the war with proper backing from Western allies. This support encompasses strengthening existing sanctions against Russia and its partners, implementing new restrictive measures, and providing Ukraine with necessary financial and military assistance including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and aircraft.

Some 15% of surveyed Ukrainians consider victory impossible even under such conditions, while 9% of respondents could not determine their position on the matter.

KIIS researchers noted minimal change in Ukrainian confidence levels over the past year. The institute conducted similar surveys in December 2023 and September 2024, though those earlier polls asked about achieving success on the front rather than outright victory. In September, 81% of Ukrainians believed their country could achieve battlefield success, while 14% deemed this impossible even with proper Western support.

“One can reasonably assume that over the past year there has been no significant decline in belief in the possibility of victory, and at the same time, for a convincing majority, victory is possible – with proper support from the West (from which sending troops is not expected, but at least effective sanctions and sufficient provision of weapons are expected),” the survey conclusions state.

The findings contrast with international public opinion trends. According to KIIS data from 7 August, over three-quarters of Ukrainians categorically oppose Russia’s peace plan. However, as of 27 August, 53% of Germans believed Ukraine should cede territories to Russia to end the war. Meanwhile, 28 September polling data showed 46% of Americans consider US assistance to Ukraine insufficient, while 25% of respondents expressed the view that America is doing too much.

The survey underscores the persistent gap between Ukrainian resolve and varying levels of international support, with Ukrainian confidence in victory remaining largely stable despite ongoing challenges on multiple fronts.