Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have reaffirmed Russia’s commitment to a war of attrition against Ukraine. In a report published on 18 September, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pushed back against the Kremlin’s narrative, reiterating that Russia’s victory is not inevitable.

Putin’s attrition theory resurfaces

According to the ISW report, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on 18 September that over 700,000 Russian soldiers are on the frontline in Ukraine. Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, a day earlier, said Russian forces are advancing on “practically all fronts”. These statements reflect Putin’s broader theory of victory: that Russia can continue slow advances indefinitely and exhaust Ukraine and the West.

“Putin’s and Gerasimov’s recent statements are part of wider Kremlin efforts to push Ukraine and the West to immediately acquiesce to Putin’s maximalist demands out of fear that a Russian victory is inevitable and that Russian aggression will only increase in the future,” ISW wrote.

ISW highlights mounting Russian weaknesses

ISW assessed that “a Russian victory is not inevitable,” and that Ukraine and the West Єcan leverage several key Russian weaknesses to force Putin to change his calculus and engage in good-faith negotiations.”

Russia’s military gains have come at steep costs. On 9 September, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russia suffered 299,210 casualties — killed and wounded — since January 2025. Russia’s slow territorial gains have come with disproportionate losses.

ISW noted that Putin’s economic mismanagement during the war has led to unsustainable spending, inflation, and labor shortages, further undermining the country’s ability to maintain the current pace of war.

US President Donald Trump also commented on 18 September that Russia is incurring more losses than Ukraine and suggested that if oil prices fall, Putin will have to “drop out” of the war. Russian oil revenues continue to play a critical role in funding the Kremlin’s war effort.

Kremlin continues to demand Ukrainian capitulation

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated on 18 September that Moscow will only compromise if a peace settlement guarantees Russia’s “legitimate security interests” and those of Russians in Ukraine, ISW reported.

He also claimed that the United States understands the so-called “root causes” of the war. ISW noted that such language has long been used by Russian officials to reinforce original Kremlin demands — demands they seek to achieve either militarily or through pressure disguised as diplomacy.