Today, there is interesting news from the Black Sea region. Here, after degrading Russian air defense and surveillance capabilities in and around Crimea, the Ukrainians started using the Bayraktar drones again.

The deadly Turkish-supplied drone, which gained reputation in the first months of the war, is now back in action, destroying Russian vessels and undermining Russian Black Sea operations. Ukraine’s Turkish-made Bayraktar drones have returned to prominence, now in use for anti-naval operations in the Black Sea.

Initially, these drones played a key role early in the war, when Russian air defense was sparse and unprepared. As Russia expanded its defensive measures to counter threats in the air, the Bayraktar’s relatively large radar signature made it vulnerable, prompting Ukraine to significantly reduce its use.

Domestic production enables renewed deployment

Now, however, conditions have shifted. Ukraine, in cooperation with Türkiye, now produces over 120 Bayraktars domestically a year, enhancing the possibilities of their deployment. Recent footage illustrates this comeback vividly, with Bayraktar drones destroying multiple Russian vessels near the Tendrivska Gulf Spit, as enemy forces attempted to disembark soldiers onto strategically important islands.

Capturing platforms for recon and offense

The renewed Bayraktar offensive complements broader Ukrainian efforts in the Black Sea, an area growing more strategically vital. Recent Ukrainian naval drone strikes targeted Russian-held oil rig platforms, with subsequent moves using high-speed boats aiming to capture these crucial offshore platforms after they are cleared of Russian presence.

Control over them has profound tactical significance, enabling reconnaissance and radar surveillance deep into Russian-held Crimea, and potentially serving as launching points for future naval drone operations.

The fierce battles over these platforms reflect their dual value: ideal monitoring stations and drone signal relay stations, as demonstrated recently. That is why both Russia and Ukraine fiercely contest these platforms, as control over them often changes hands.

Real-time intel and Western support strengthen strikes

Western allies maintain surveillance flights to support Ukraine’s naval strategy: notably, a British RC-135W electronic reconnaissance aircraft patrolled western Crimea, foreboding increased Ukrainian operations. Ukraine’s deployment of Bayraktars, providing live battlefield intelligence during platform strikes, additionally complements Ukraine’s naval drone operations.

In response, Russia increasingly relies on Lancet drones guided by ZALA reconnaissance drones to intercept Ukrainian naval drones. Russian analysts acknowledge this approach has significant limitations given the agility of Ukrainian drone boats and the diverse payloads Ukrainians now employ, including electronic warfare countermeasures and air defense missiles to shoot down incoming Russian strike drones and fighter jets.

Targeted strikes on Crimea’s air defenses open the skies

At the same time, the Ukrainian military Intelligence service has undertaken precision operations aimed at crippling Russian air defenses in Crimea. Recent strikes targeted essential components of the sophisticated Russian S-400 missile system. Specifically, Ukrainians successfully destroyed two multi-functional 92N2E fire-control radars, two 91N6E long-range surveillance radars, and one S-400 missile launcher. This operation effectively reopened the skies above western Crimea and the Black Sea, enabling renewed Bayraktar drone activity and other aerial operations.

Ukraine swiftly capitalized, following these air-defense eliminations by striking a high-value Russian naval special forces base in Chornomorske with two Neptune missiles, causing extensive damage, as confirmed by available footage.

Russian navy retreats as Ukraine expands reach

Facing sustained Ukrainian attacks, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet now struggles to maintain its presence. Fearing further drone strikes, Russian naval commanders had already repositioned remaining warships far from contested waters, placing their naval assets out of play in the naval war. Even Russian military leaders understand this, as recent footage shows dismantled naval autocannons being installed as fixed, turret-like defensive positions on land.

This absurd strategy underscores Russia’s dire naval situation. Additionally, these stationary naval guns, though powerful, lack mobility and concealment, rendering them vulnerable to Ukrainian drone and bomb strikes, making them militarily virtually useless on the ground as well.

Strategic momentum builds toward Crimea

Overall, Ukraine continues to systematically degrade Russian military capabilities in the Black Sea, focusing on crucial dual-use oil platforms that have formed a core role in both sides’ naval strategy. This mirrors previous Ukrainian tactics of degrading Russian air defenses first, which then enables deeper and more disruptive strikes into Crimea and beyond.

By securing these offshore installations, Ukraine plans to support more ambitious special operations against Russian-controlled Crimea—possibly even variations of previously successful commando infiltrations.

Thus, Ukraine’s renewed use of Bayraktar drones symbolizes not only a regained tactical advantage, but also a more comprehensive strategy of gradually reasserting naval dominance and preparing the stage for significant future operations in the air and on land.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there is a lot of news from the Kursk direction. Here, Colombian volunteers in the Ukrainian army launched a well-planned and decisive attack across the border to put an important position under their control. By doing so, they are not only establishing control in the area but also sabotaging Russian offensive efforts into Sumy Oblast.

Recently, Ukrainian units have initiated precise offensive operations in the border region near the Russian village of Novyi Put, strategically situated between Tyotkino and the areas where Russia has infiltrated Sumy Oblast. The purpose of these targeted raids is clear: to prevent Russia from launching additional offensives, which would not only alleviate the Ukrainian pressure on Tyotkino but also threaten Sumy’s defenses from the north.

Ukraine rolls out three-phase plan

Ukraine’s tactical approach in this critical area consists of a threefold strategy. Firstly, their goal is to systematically reduce Russian manpower, weakening the enemy’s frontline strength. Secondly, they aim to neutralize Russian artillery, depriving ground troops of crucial fire support. Lastly, Ukraine is conducting surgical operations that, though seemingly small in scale, yield strategic results far exceeding their immediate battlefield significance.

Drones take out Russian airborne unit

In line with this strategy, Ukrainian drones recently identified and coordinated a precision air strike against a Russian troop deployment area deep in Kursk Oblast. Released footage and prior intelligence confirmed the destruction of a Russian airborne company-sized formation.

By specifically targeting such elite units, Ukraine seeks to disrupt Russian capabilities that provide coordination and rapid-response support, severely diminishing Russia’s ability to launch cohesive offensive or defensive operations.

Ukrainian strikes hit artillery systems

Complementing this, Ukrainian forces have intensified efforts to dismantle Russian artillery. Notably, Ukrainian drones successfully targeted a Russian 152-mm self-propelled artillery system, the 2S43 Malva, with a precision-guided Darts kamikaze drone.

Eliminating such artillery pieces weakens the enemy’s firepower, leaving Russian ground troops exposed and vulnerable to Ukrainian raids, and accelerates Russia’s attrition.

Colombians clear forest stronghold

Most remarkable, however, was the recent direct-action assault involving Colombian volunteers serving within Ukrainian units. These volunteers, with extensive combat experience and training in the Colombian armed forces, were instrumental in clearing Russian forces entrenched within a small, forested area near the border. Despite its modest size, this wooded patch, surrounded by open fields, offers significant tactical advantages, granting control over the surrounding territory to whoever holds it.

The assault unfolded with meticulous coordination. Ukrainian drone operators provided real-time aerial surveillance, directing the Colombian unit to Russian defensive trenches and bunkers concealed within the forest. Leveraging their expertise in stealth infiltration, the Colombian soldiers approached unnoticed, initiating close-quarters combat.

Suppressing Russian defenders within their bunkers, the Colombians methodically cleared each position using grenades and explosives, finally securing the main trenches after an intense battle. Following this decisive victory, the Colombian-Ukrainian force proudly displayed captured Russian equipment, underscoring their success.

Ukraine fortifies terrain, sets trap

This position’s tactical value is significant. Its defensive potential is enhanced by interconnected tree lines and nearby settlements offering concealed ground lines of communication for Ukrainian troops. Furthermore, the location is strategically beneficial due to its clear lines of fire, forcing any counterattacking Russian units into predictable and lethal kill zones, or right out into open fields.

Raids force Russia into futile attacks

All this means that, should Russian commanders decide to retake this forest patch, guarding the far eastern flank of Tyotkino, they would have to expend considerable resources, troops, time, and armor to retake it—only to find Ukrainian forces will have likely withdrawn before succumbing to bombardments, effectively forcing Russia to destroy a potential staging ground.

Overall, this operation conducted by Colombian volunteers exemplifies Ukraine’s broader strategic intent along the Sumy–Kursk border region. Ukrainian forces carry out numerous such raids, continuously forcing Russia to allocate resources over a larger area, which in cumulative effect significantly delays enemy operations and drains their offensive capabilities.

Collectively, these actions ensure that Russian forces remain bogged down, unable to effectively support or expand their ambitions against Sumy, thereby safeguarding critical Ukrainian positions and significantly undermining Russia’s objectives.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there is interesting news from the Baltic and North Seas. Here, the United Kingdom ramped up its role in the campaign against Russia’s shadow fleet, a vast network of aging, uninsured oil tankers used to dodge sanctions and bankroll the war in Ukraine. But this is not just about oil — the fleet’s growing presence near critical infrastructure and its open defiance of maritime rules have turned it into a front line in a broader hybrid conflict.

Russian warship escort sparks UK sanctions

The United Kingdom has now joined the Nordic and Baltic states in a joint declaration, pledging coordinated enforcement, tracking, and interdiction operations against the Russian shadow fleet — essentially bringing Britain into the heart of NATO’s Baltic blockade.

The trigger came on 16 June, when a Russian corvette openly escorted two shadow fleet tankers through the English Channel — a move designed to challenge Western enforcement and demonstrate that Moscow was willing to use military force to protect illegal shipments. Two days later, London struck back, sanctioning 20 more ships linked to the fleet and targeting support networks used to finance and operate them, before officially joining the blockade.

Spy sensors and hybrid threats exposed

This escalation did not come out of nowhere. In January, under the Joint Expeditionary Force framework, the UK helped launch Nordic Warden, a multinational operation to monitor shadow fleet activity and protect undersea infrastructure. This allowed the Royal Navy to recover several Russian spy sensors in UK waters — devices believed to be used for tracking and scanning the Royal Navy’s stealth submarines’ sonar signatures, as well as mapping undersea cables for future sabotage.

This incident added to the larger picture in light of other sabotages: Russia was not just skirting sanctions — it was probing Europe’s defenses, using its shipping fleet as both a revenue stream and a tool for sabotage.

Sanctions and naval containment tighten

In response, the UK has shifted from passive monitoring to active disruption. On 9 May, it rolled out its largest sanctions package to date, blacklisting 100 tankers linked to more than $24 billion in oil trade. That number has since grown, with a total of 140 vessels and dozens of companies now cut off from the United Kingdom’s markets.

These measures are not symbolic; shadow fleet tankers run without insurance, often disable transponders, and sail through crowded maritime routes. The risk of environmental damage is high — but so is the threat to energy infrastructure. For the UK, this is as much about national security as it is about enforcing sanctions.

Britain secures Baltic chokepoints

Britain’s operational role in the blockade leans heavily on geography. Russian oil exports from Ust-Luga and Primorsk must cross the Danish Straits, a natural chokepoint between the North Sea and the Baltic. UK naval patrols now pass through Skagerrak and Kattegat, linking up with Danish and Swedish forces around Bornholm and Gotland. Surveillance aircraft track tankers that switch off their tracking systems or take suspicious detours.

This is not about boarding every ship — it is about cutting the options down until the fleet has nowhere left to run. The UK brings technical tools others do not. Its P-8 Poseidon aircraft, sonar-equipped frigates, and seabed monitoring teams, originally designed for submarine warfare, are now repurposed to detect sabotage risks.

Additionally, undersea patrols sweep for devices like the Russian spy sensors found in April. If Russia uses the shadow fleet to mask grey zone operations, spying, jamming, and cable interference — as they already did in the Baltics — then Britain’s tools become the early warning system.

UK combines ships, sanctions, and surveillance

That system matters — these ships are not just carrying oil; they are carrying leverage. A major spill could wreck the Baltic coastline. A minor cable cut could knock out power or internet in parts of Europe. The shadow fleet is a military liability, an environmental risk, and an economic pressure point all in one. That is why the UK’s response is layered, with ships, sensors, and sanctions working together.

Overall, Britain’s entry into the blockade turned a regional enforcement effort into a full-spectrum containment campaign. Moscow’s provocations — from escorting tankers to prevent boarding, to underwater espionage — have forced this shift.

Now, with the UK closing off exits from the West and Nordic States tightening control from the North and East, the window for shadow operations is narrowing. Russia still has ships — but fewer safe routes. Each time one slips through, it faces more eyes, more pressure, and fewer chances to vanish again.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Russian forces launched a new offensive into Sumy Oblast, charging across open fields with the expectation of minimal resistance. But what they encountered was a carefully planned Ukrainian trap.

Drawn far from their defensive lines and exposed in the open, Russian units were hit hard by a sudden Ukrainian counterstrike. Artillery, drones, and precision infantry movements devastated the attackers. Ukrainian forces quickly overran Russian command posts, shattered frontline cohesion, and forced dozens of Russian soldiers to surrender.

Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claim that capturing Sumy is not a primary goal, his assertion that “wherever Russian soldiers step becomes Russian territory” stands in stark contrast to current battlefield losses. Russian diplomats had even issued direct threats during Istanbul negotiations, warning Ukraine it could lose both Sumy and Kharkiv if it didn’t comply with Kremlin demands. But so far, Ukraine has turned the tide.

Ukrainian veterans regroup and launch counterattack

In the opening days of the Russian offensive, Ukrainian forces appeared to retreat, offering limited resistance. In reality, this was a strategic maneuver. Veteran Ukrainian units, including those with experience deep inside Kursk Oblast, conducted a tactical withdrawal and repositioned into defensible areas within Sumy.

Taking shelter in the forests, these battle-hardened troops waited for the right moment. Ukrainian command anticipated that once Russian troops crossed into exposed terrain, they’d become highly vulnerable—and they were right.

Geolocated footage now confirms fields littered with Russian casualties, following intense drone strikes and artillery fire. Ukraine’s ability to conserve its strength and then strike with precision turned a risky situation into a battlefield advantage.

Elite Ukrainian unit retakes Andriivka

With Russian forces depleted, Ukraine seized the opportunity. The 225th Separate Assault Battalion, one of Ukraine’s elite strike forces, led a fierce counteroffensive. In a matter of hours, Ukrainian troops retook the village of Andriivka, dismantling fortified Russian positions.

One of the most significant blows came during the assault on a Russian frontline command post. Ukrainian soldiers not only overran the site but also killed Andrey Vyacheslavovich Yartsev, a battalion commander from Russia’s 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment. His death caused a sudden breakdown in Russian command coordination, leaving forward units scattered and exposed.

Retaking Andriivka gave Ukraine two major advantages:

• It disrupted Russian offensives aimed at Khotin and Pysarivka.
• It allowed Ukrainian drone teams to hunt down dispersed Russian units during follow-up clearing operations.

Russia stalls as Ukraine secures Sumy frontline

Ukraine’s counteroffensive didn’t just reclaim territory—it shattered Russian morale. In one viral video, 13 Russian soldiers surrender to a Ukrainian reconnaissance drone, raising their hands and following remote instructions to safety. These moments underscore a broader collapse in Russian battlefield cohesion.

Ukrainian forces have since re-entered multiple contested villages and continue to dig in. Meanwhile, Russian commanders are still determined to push toward Khotin, hoping to create a drone strike corridor capable of reaching Sumy city, the regional capital.

But so far, their offensive is losing momentum. By forcing Russian troops into open ground, hitting hard with drones and artillery, and eliminating key officers, Ukraine has regained tactical control over the Sumy front—at least for now.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Kostiantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Here, after facing repeated humiliating setbacks at Pokrovsk, the Russian command redirected their offensive toward Kostiantynivka, as they collided with the Ukrainian defense line. The Russians sent a massive assault group with dozens armored vehicles to break through, but were funneled into a devastating kill zone. 

The goal of Russian forces west of Kostiantynivka is to achieve a decisive penetration through Ukrainian defensive lines, creating opportunities to outflank and encircle both Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka simultaneously. This would disrupt Ukrainian defenses across two crucial sectors, potentially destabilizing a massive portion of the frontline. 

Following a relatively rapid Russian advance in this area last month, Ukrainian forces swiftly redeployed elite units to stall further gains, successfully buying time for reserves to reinforce secondary defense lines. Despite incremental Russian progress since the initial breakthrough, Ukrainian defenders succeeded in slowing down enemy momentum, preventing the frontline collapse that Russia urgently sought. Now, Russian forces find themselves confronting fortified Ukrainian positions to the southwest of Kostiantynivka, where they’ve been unable to advance further over the past two weeks.

The Russians currently hold one significant advantage, the establishment of a bridgehead across the important Bychok River. This allows them to transfer larger numbers of troops and equipment across the water barrier, increasing their offensive potential and the intensity of their attacks.

The geographic position of the bridgehead offers flexibility for attacks against Kostiantynivka or Pokrovsk, but given limited resources, Russian commanders seem focused primarily on pushing toward Kostiantynivka. This tactical choice also threatens the nearby Ukrainian defense lines near Toretsk, increasing the reward of any successful maneuver for the Russians.

However, Ukrainian defenses around Kostiantynivka are robust and carefully designed, significantly shaping Ukrainian tactics and granting a decisive defensive advantage. Elaborate anti-tank ditches and natural terrain features effectively funnel Russian forces along the heavily fortified Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway. 

Ukrainian engineers have constructed a sophisticated network of layered fortifications along this critical road, establishing a formidable defense in depth. Additionally, rows of dragon teeth along the highway serve as concrete barriers to halt Russian armored assaults, while hidden Ukrainian positions in the fortifications deliver devastating fire. Ukrainian artillery and drone operators wait in concealed positions, ready to unleash intense fire on enemy formations entering these well-prepared kill zones.

Faced with mounting difficulties and aware of the increasingly reinforced Ukrainian positions, the Russian command opted for a desperate gamble. They planned to launch one large-scale mechanized assault rather than their more typical smaller infiltration tactics they had been relying on recently. Hoping to surprise and overwhelm Ukrainian defenders, the Russians dispatched one of the largest mechanized columns seen in this sector for months, consisting of at least 23 armored vehicles and over a dozen motorcycles. 

However, the column drove directly into a carefully prepared Ukrainian kill zone along the fortified highway. To avoid running into mines on the road itself, the Russians drove beside it, but the Ukrainian minefields extended into the fields, destroying several of their vehicles. The battle was brutal and chaotic, lasting over 3 hours as Ukrainians obliterated this massive Russian assault part by part. Ukrainian FPV drone operators and artillery systematically dismantled the Russian formation as it struggled to advance due to the obstacles. 

The engineer vehicle destined to clear a path through the dragon’s teeth was destroyed, as were the soldiers on motorcycles that could have blown a path through them with explosives, causing the Russian armor to bunch up and be devastated by artillery. Of the approximately twenty-five armored vehicles engaged, eighteen were decisively destroyed. 

Some of them detonated on carefully placed anti-tank mines; others, attempting to escape Ukrainian fire, panicked and drove directly into anti-tank ditches, becoming stationary targets swiftly finished off by Ukrainian drones. Nearly two hundred Russian troops were killed in the failed assault, underscoring the catastrophic nature of failing an attempted breakthrough.

Overall, while Russian forces initially achieved limited success southwest of Kostiantynivka, the newly improved and manned Ukrainian defensive setup decisively halted the recent ambitious mechanized assault. The scale of losses incurred in this latest attack represents another severe setback for Russian commanders, reflecting both poor operational planning and underestimation of Ukrainian preparations.

Nevertheless, previous patterns suggest that Russians will regroup and return, refusing to abandon their objective. Ukrainian commanders expect that Russia is already mobilizing additional units and equipment, preparing another offensive effort against the long coveted Kostiantynivka sector.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Amid growing Russian provocations in the Baltic Sea and chilling calls for the “denazification” of the Baltic states, tension is rising in Northern Europe. Along the Suwalki Gap—a critical strip linking Poland and Lithuania—civilians are making evacuation plans.

Residents in Lithuanian towns like Kalvarija, Lazdijai, and Veisiejai are stockpiling food and water. Though small, these towns fear becoming frontline battlegrounds if conflict erupts. Analysts warn that a new Russian military exercise along Belarus’s western border could be a precursor to something more dangerous: a limited operation to secure a land route to Kaliningrad.

Russia eyes Suwalki Gap to link Kaliningrad

The Suwalki Gap, a 65-kilometer corridor nestled between NATO allies Poland and Lithuania, is becoming one of Europe’s most dangerous pressure points. Known as NATO’s Achilles’ heel, it’s the only land route connecting the Baltic States to the rest of the alliance.

To the west lies Kaliningrad, Russia’s heavily armed exclave. To the east, its ally Belarus. If war breaks out, Moscow may move quickly to link these regions, seizing the Suwalki Gap before NATO can respond. Kaliningrad’s isolation—surrounded by NATO states and cut off from supply routes—gives Russia a potential excuse for action.

Kremlin repeats Ukraine playbook in the Baltics

Moscow claims Kaliningrad faces starvation, blockade, and genocide—echoing the same justification it used before invading Ukraine. These accusations of persecution and “Russophobia” could be used to rally domestic support for a “special operation” through the corridor.

Military planners believe any Russian strike would be swift and well-coordinated. Forces from Kaliningrad would push south. Simultaneously, Belarus-based troops could strike northwest. Their first move: isolate the Polish town of Suwalki and seize control of nearby forests, creating a defensible position that delays NATO intervention.

Russian forces could launch two-front assault

Once the Suwalki region is under control, small Lithuanian towns like Kalvarija and Veisiejai become early targets. Capturing them gives Russia a vital foothold, cutting off Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia from land-based NATO support.

The terrain—dense forests, lakes, and natural barriers—favors the defenders. A 65-kilometer-long, 45-kilometer-wide corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad would allow for Russian troop movement and make NATO counteroffensives far more difficult and time-consuming.

NATO’s vulnerable corridor faces growing threat

This scenario explains the fear gripping Baltic communities. Russia continues to build its narrative around Kaliningrad’s “persecution,” while moving troops into Belarus—mirroring the prelude to its 2022 Ukraine invasion.

The Suwalki Gap’s strategic importance cannot be overstated. If Russia seizes it, NATO loses its only direct land access to the Baltics. Residents are watching, preparing, and waiting—fearful that the next move has already begun.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Kupiansk direction, Kharkiv Oblast. 

Here, the strategic Battle for Kupiansk is unfolding as Russian forces intensify efforts to cross the Oskil River and encircle the city, hoping to shift momentum in their favor. Yet, despite repeated assaults and tactical shifts, their advance remains stalled – trapped in a deadly fire pocket, crippled by logistics, and methodically dismantled by a patient and lethal Ukrainian defense.

The Battle for Kupiansk is characterized by persistent Russian pressure along two key axes. Primarily via the Pischane funnel, a narrow corridor extending westward toward the Oskil River. Here, Russian units attempt to widen their area of control, aiming to solidify positions near the riverbanks and save themselves from the deadly Ukrainian fire from 3 sides. 

However, because of the fire pocket, Russian forces in this sector are severely undermanned, undersupplied, and critically lack armored support. Their presence largely consists of scattered infantry groups operating without meaningful logistical backing, rendering them particularly vulnerable to precise, small-scale raids by Ukrainian special forces. 

Ukrainian forces, employing a robust active defense, maintain continuous pressure in an active defense, conducting raids with special forces teams to take prisoners, obtain mission-critical intelligence, and disrupt Russian force gathering efforts. Thus, Russian elements within the funnel remain strategically insignificant. 

Given ongoing, high-stakes battles elsewhere, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Sumy, allocating substantial Ukrainian resources to decisively eliminate this minor Russian penetration would be impractical. Additionally, pushing Russian forces back here would inadvertently shorten their overextended supply lines, unintentionally improving their logistical conditions. Therefore, Ukraine’s current strategy of containment and attrition effectively drains Russian manpower without compromising Ukrainian resources.

Meanwhile, Russian command persistently attempts to close the pocket around the Pischane funnel, striving to transform it into a platform for a more substantial advance directly toward Kupiansk and the strategically important Oskil River. Despite frequent offensive attempts, Russian progress remains negligible. Various tactics have been employed, including infantry-only assaults, motorcycle-mounted rushes, and even limited armor-supported pushes. Each of these efforts has consistently failed due to relentless and highly effective Ukrainian resistance.

Over several months, Russian forces have sought to widen the funnel’s eastern flank to alleviate the concentrated Ukrainian fire pocket. Despite their efforts, Russians have managed to widen only half the funnel, achieving little practical advantage. Consequently, this maintains the position that the Russian funnel itself presents no immediate strategic threat, as Russian forces continue to scatter valuable combat resources without achieving any real operational breakthrough toward Kupiansk.

Another critical element of Russian operations in the Kupiansk direction is their presence around the Dvorichna bridgehead. Here, Russian forces have managed to establish a precarious foothold across the Oskil River. However, their logistical situation is dire, relying exclusively on rubber boats traversing the river’s narrower stretches, which is an inherently unreliable method susceptible to Ukrainian interdiction. Despite being advertised as possessing amphibious capabilities, geolocated footage shows that Russian armored vehicles have repeatedly proven inadequate for effective river crossings. 

Consequently, Russian offensive potential from this bridgehead is severely handicapped, relying almost entirely on infantry groups that gradually cross the river, and then mass together for concentrated assaults. This predictable approach frequently backfires: Ukrainian forces tactically permit certain Russian units to penetrate slightly, quickly sealing the breach afterward. Thus, isolated and encircled, these Russian groups are systematically neutralized, amplifying enemy losses.

Additionally, the recent Ukrainian air assault conducted deep behind Russian lines around the Dvorichna sector has substantially disrupted Russian rear-area logistics and command structures. This also deepened the operational difficulties Russian forces faced at the bridgehead, creating significant confusion and limiting their offensive effectiveness. Consequently, Russian advances in the Dvorichna area remain stalled, their positions static, and their capability for meaningful offensive action severely degraded.

Overall, the Ukrainian defensive strategy in the battle for Kupiansk remains highly effective, with Ukrainian commanders demonstrating exceptional operational patience by intelligently managing limited resources to contain and systematically treat Russian forces without excessive commitments. Ukrainian troops consistently exploit Russian weaknesses such as poor logistics, insufficient manpower, and ineffective tactics to inflict disproportionately high casualties, and instead of attempting costly counterattacks to eliminate strategically insignificant Russian penetrations, Ukrainian forces strategically capitalize on enemy mistakes while gradually eroding enemy combat potential.

This approach is methodically draining Russian powers along the Kupiansk front, ensuring that despite repeated efforts, the Russians have failed to secure any meaningful operational advantage or threaten key Ukrainian-held territory.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are a lot of important updates from Ukraine.

Here, as Ukraine ramps up its long-range strike capabilities, a breakthrough is taking shape, with German funding powering Ukraine’s first hypersonic missile launch. Backed by a five-billion-euro defense package, Ukraine’s Hrim-2 [thunder in Ukrainian] hypersonic missile is now entering serial production, marking a bold new chapter in Ukraine’s ability to hit deep behind Russian lines.

Ukraine has officially announced the development of its own domestically produced ballistic missile, the HRIM-2. After over a decade of delayed progress due to funding issues, the missile system is now entering serial production, accelerated by international military and financial support since the start of the full-scale war.

Notably, Germany has provided a new five-billion-euro defense package, which includes significant investments in the domestic production of Ukrainian long-range weapon systems, including the development and production of the new ballistic missile. This aid enabled the Ukrainians not only to develop the missile but also to initiate serial production of the Hrim-2 immediately after its development.

Notably, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense also announced that they had already conducted a successful field test of the missile. Ukrainians shared footage of this strike, adding that it was used to destroy a Russian command post on the east bank of the Dnipro River delta. This means that the Hrim-2 system is combat-tested and fully operational, opening the possibility of an increased number of similar precision strikes against Russian military targets deep behind the frontline. 

The Hrim-2 is launched from a specialized ground vehicle that fires it into the air using a solid propellant rocket engine, before following a set ballistic trajectory towards a stationary target. The Hrim-2 has an operational range of 300 kilometers and can reach speeds of up to Mach 5.2, or nearly 1.8 kilometers per second, making it a hypersonic missile. 

The 400-kilogram warhead allows for the destruction of hardened bunkers, logistics hubs, airbases, and ammunition depots, especially because these are stationary targets that are easy to trace. The capability of Hrim-2 to carry a heavy warhead for strikes within a 300-kilometer range marks a major leap forward for the Ukrainian precision strike capabilities, as the warhead is twice as big as that of Atacms, which Ukrainians were previously dependent on for similar precision strikes. 

Interestingly, these capabilities bring it comparably close to the Russian Iskander ballistic missiles, which have a similar payload of around 400 kilograms, while the Ukrainian Hrim-2 might soon catch up with or even exceed the Russians’ range of 400 kilometers as development continues.

The fact that it is launched from a mobile transport vehicle gives Ukrainians the ability to quickly move to a firing position, fire the missile hundreds of kilometers away from the frontline, and pull back before the Russians can strike back. Its immense speed of 1.8  kilometers per second is nearly twice as fast as the Atacms, and allows it to strike at its maximum range in under 3 minutes.

Furthermore, while Russian air defenses like the S-300 and S-400 are able to intercept targets at this speed on paper, as a missile enters the hypersonic range, a successful interception becomes increasingly unlikely. 

The fact that the Hrim-2 ballistic missile is a completely domestic product of the Ukrainian military industry, without a reliance on foreign components, makes it possible to quickly produce and fire in large numbers, costing 3 million US dollars, or 2.6 million euros, a piece.

The 5 billion euro defense package also secured this funding for Ukraine’s long-range strike drones, FPV drones, and drone interceptors. Notably this will also allow Ukraine to massively increase the production of the Liyuti long-range strike drones with a range of 2 thousand kilometers, Bars missile-drones with a range of 800 kilometers, and Flamingo high-speed drone-interceptors, which are an extremely cost-effective way to intercept the hundreds of Shaheds that Russia launches toward Ukraine each day.

Overall, the Ukrainians are rapidly developing their precision deep-strike capabilities, enabled by massive German funding. Additional funding into the Ukrainian military industry will likely continue, as Germany and the rest of NATO witness the potential and effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range precision strikes. All the while, Ukraine has a massive new weapon ready, with the first missiles already rolling of the production line.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Recently, drones have overtaken artillery as the leading cause of Russian casualties in Ukraine. However, the king of the battlefield has not been replaced, as Ukrainians have completely innovated how drones function in modern war. 

In May, drones were responsible for over 75% of Russian battlefield casualties, compared to an estimated 20% by artillery and 5% from small arms. Ukraine struck more than 89,000 targets with drones in May, which includes manpower, equipment, and vehicles, a 7.2% increase from 83,000 in April. 

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that drones have now caught up with artillery in terms of hit percentage. Much of this is driven by the widespread adoption of fiber-optic drones with a twenty-kilometer range, which are immune to jamming and increasingly available across the front. These figures underline a new reality: drones are no longer a secondary force but the main source of pain for Russian troops.

By contrast, artillery, once the dominant killer, now causes just a fifth of Russian injuries. Artillery still fires vast volumes, but its effectiveness is declining. The wear and tear on barrels, many of which have fired well beyond their service life, is making precision increasingly difficult. 

At the same time, Russia has hardened many of its positions, reducing the lethality of inaccurate or delayed strikes. While artillery crews are well-trained, they rely on stable spotting networks and undisturbed logistics, both of which have come under pressure. Recent numbers show that artillery still hits targets, but in terms of lethal effect, its effectiveness is declining. 

The explanation lies in the trajectories of these systems. Artillery is degrading while drones are improving. Drone operators are becoming better trained, coordination with unit-level tactics is improving, and technology is always evolving. Many modern drones are not just flying grenades; they can operate in contested environments, evade electronic warfare, and hunt in swarms, with some even featuring integrated autonomous targeting software. 

Some drones are equipped with thermobaric charges for higher lethality, while others use fiber-optic guidance systems that render electronic warfare useless. Direct strike FPV’s are often paired with reconnaissance drones, turning the process almost into a continuous production line of kamikaze strikes. This increase in usage and tactics is matched by coordination, with notably Ukrainian drone units now operating with leaderboards tracking confirmed kills, pushing crews to innovate faster.

Still, artillery remains an essential part of the Ukrainian system. Its function on the modern battlefield has shifted but not disappeared. Mortars and howitzers are unmatched when it comes to area denial and suppressive fire. These are tasks drones do poorly, especially in bad weather conditions or when continuous fire is necessary. 

A drone may kill a soldier in a trench, but a battery of Mortars can prevent a platoon from moving through that trench in the first place, or allow a Ukrainian assault group to advance to the position uncontested. In high-intensity combined arms warfare, the need to suppress, disrupt, or channel enemy movement is still best handled by traditional artillery. Mortars, in particular, remain indispensable in close-range engagements where portability and fast reaction matter more than pinpoint accuracy or larger explosions.

That is why drones have not replaced anything; they have supplemented and, in some contexts, outperformed conventional systems. The most effective Ukrainian units, like Magyar’s Birds, are those that combine the two. Drones scout enemy positions, drop munitions, and then feed coordinates to mortar and artillery crews. Or, drones disable vehicles, which are then finished off by artillery once stationary.

Even low-cost FPV drones now serve as spotters, finishers, or gap fillers for artillery teams, targeting vehicles that artillery damaged but did not destroy, or chasing down retreating troops. In some sectors, Ukrainian teams are now using drones and mortars together, creating a kill chain that is fast, inexpensive, and difficult to counter. The combination of both systems is where the real advantage lies for the Ukrainians.

Overall, the drone surge is reshaping how Ukraine fights. It is not about one system replacing another but about new layers being added to the battlefield. Drones now inflict the most pain, but artillery still shapes the battlefield. The Ukrainian military has managed to merge both systems into a flexible and deadly toolkit. As long as drone production continues to scale and artillery remains operational, Ukraine will retain the edge in tactical innovation, and Russia will keep paying the price.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Middle East. Here, in a war Tehran once promised would reshape the region, the only thing reshaped is Iran’s own military, flattened, blinded, and humiliated in a matter of days.

Israeli F-35s own the skies above Tehran

In the opening hours of the Israeli operation against Iran, it became immediately clear that Iran’s air defense network was utterly insufficient to repel an attack from a modern and well-prepared adversary.

Iran’s regime claimed to have downed four such jets, yet the evidence provided was quickly debunked as embarrassingly obvious Photoshop manipulations. In reality, Israeli aircraft rapidly dominated western Iranian airspace, freely operating even over Tehran itself, an unprecedented humiliation.

The Iranian Air Force was also quickly neutralized with Israeli planes striking Iranian jets directly on their runways and systematically targeting radar installations, leaving Iran’s air force unable to respond or put up resistance against Israeli airpower.

Scorched before fired

Following this crippling operation, Iran attempted to retaliate with ballistic missiles.

However, even this modest success was short-lived. On the second day of the operation, Israeli aircraft rapidly identified and destroyed approximately one-third of Iran’s missile launchers, dramatically reducing the volume of subsequent missile attacks.

Iran’s missile arsenal is buried in two days

Further worsening Iran’s trouble, Israel took swift and decisive action to neutralize Iran’s vaunted underground missile stockpiles.

Consequently, despite the vast stores of missiles presumably remaining intact underground, Iran now lacks timely access to these weapons, rendering them irrelevant to the current conflict.

Iran’s drones meet the Iron Dome wall

Iran’s widely touted Shahed drones, famous for their use by Russia against Ukraine, proved astonishingly ineffective against Israeli defenses.

Israel’s dense and layered air defense network, featuring the Iron Dome supplemented by advanced missile defenses, fighter cover, and helicopter support, intercepted these drones with ease.

Moreover, American and Jordanian support further bolstered Israeli defenses. Israeli electronic warfare experts had previously studied Shahed drones extensively, even deploying to Ukraine for hands-on experience in 2023. As a result, Iranian drone assaults were swiftly neutralized long before even reaching Israel.

20 Iranian generals gone before sunrise

The Israeli operation also delivered a devastating blow to Iranian military leadership: over 20 high-ranking commanders, including senior officers of the Iranian armed forces and the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, were killed within the first hours.

Israel then meticulously targeted and eliminated their replacements as soon as they were appointed, paralyzing Iran’s ability to respond effectively.

Iran’s regime teeters between collapse and surrender

Facing catastrophic losses and a rapidly deteriorating strategic position, Iran’s regime quickly spiraled into panic mode.

Tehran’s statements that they are ready to stop the attacks after Israel stops indicate not just willingness but a call to resume negotiations, proposing a mutual ceasefire.

Tehran’s leaders recognize that while escalating further might inflict limited additional damage upon Israel, it would also prompt devastating counterstrikes capable of collapsing their regime.

Tehran fights to avoid its fall

Yet, the regime must also demonstrate some military resolve domestically, or risk losing its internal legitimacy entirely, a scenario equally threatening to its grip on power.

The US initially signaled openness to renewed diplomacy, but President Trump subsequently hardened his stance, explicitly rejecting any further negotiations with Iran.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from NATO’s northern flank. Here, Russia has started rapidly escalating the tensions by building up forces and constructing new bases on the border with Finland. The Scandinavian country has been attacked by Russia before, so the Finns did not wait and immediately began preparing for the worst-case scenario.

Russia has begun a notable militarization of its extensive border with Finland, significantly escalating its military presence through the construction of new bases and the redeployment of forces. Recent satellite imagery, confirmed by NATO officials, reveals extensive activity, including rows of newly erected tents, warehouses for military vehicles, refurbished fighter jet shelters, and revitalization of a previously abandoned helicopter base.

These developments indicate the preliminary stages of a substantial, long-term military buildup, although NATO and Finnish officials emphasize this is still different from Russia’s pre-Ukraine attack deployments in 2022. The reason for this is that Russia remains predominantly occupied with its military operations in Ukraine, limiting immediate troop availability.

Border turns hot

The catalyst for Russia’s border militarization was Finland’s accession to NATO two years ago. Initially, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly stated that Finland’s NATO membership was Finland’s sovereign right, and he had no problem with it. Yet, Russia quickly shifted its posture, rapidly militarizing the border area, which has now become NATO’s longest contiguous boundary with Russia, spanning approximately 1,330 kilometers.

Russia’s actions reveal underlying apprehensions; historically, new NATO membership, particularly involving former Soviet states such as the Baltic republics, has been perceived by Moscow as provocative, significantly heightening security concerns. Consequently, the addition of Finland to NATO is interpreted by Russia as an increased threat, necessitating enhanced defenses.

Military analyst Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment predict that Russia will significantly expand its ground forces facing NATO, particularly in sensitive regions such as Finland’s northern frontier.

Arctic in play

Russia’s buildup is also strongly tied to strategic interests in the Arctic. Moscow regards control over Arctic regions as essential for securing its status as a great power. Satellite imagery recently confirmed Russian military helicopters returning to Murmansk, a strategic Arctic port city, after a two-decade absence.

This redeployment, partially driven by Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian airfields deeper within the country, places Russian forces considerably closer to NATO territory. According to Finnish defense analysts, Russia is also expanding brigades into divisions, implying an imminent surge in Russian troop strength along the border.

Bases reinforced

Russia has upgraded several military bases near Finland to enhance its defense capabilities. Key bases include Alakurtti Air Base, which supports cold-weather operations and Arctic defense, and Petrozavodsk, which offers armored vehicle storage and troop mobilization. Severomorsk-2 strengthens Arctic naval and air operations, while Olenya Air Base facilitates strategic bomber activity and large-scale operations, less than 150 kilometers from Finland, with significant infrastructure improvements indicating plans for an even larger military presence.

These upgrades provide Russia with rapid deployment capacity and enhanced surveillance, strengthening its position in a potential clash. These provocative developments follow a series of incidents underscoring rising tensions. From damaging undersea cables to satellite imagery exposing substantial Russian military expansion near Finland, this has prompted Helsinki’s military intelligence head, Brigadier General Pekka Turunen, to predict that Russian troop numbers near Finland could triple within five years.

Finland digs in

Consequently, Finland extended its indefinite border closure with Russia, citing the ongoing hybrid warfare tactics, including weaponized migration, similar to what Poland is experiencing on its border with Belarus.

Further intensifying tensions, in May and June 2025, Russia redeployed battle-hardened troops from Ukraine and intelligence specialists to the Finnish border, significantly bolstering strategic bases and violating Finnish airspace, prompting a diplomatic confrontation.

History drives Finland

Facing this steadily rising threat, Finland is actively enhancing its defensive posture by emphasizing a pragmatic approach and preparing for worst-case scenarios, by increasing defense spending and raising reservist eligibility to age 65. Finnish military planners forecast that once active hostilities in Ukraine diminish, Russia will substantially increase deployments along Finland’s border, prompting predictions of a possible armed confrontation soon after.

Overall, Finland’s defensive measures originate from a historical memory deeply shaped by past aggression from Russia, notably during the Winter War of 1939 to 1940, resulting in substantial territorial losses. The recent rapid militarization by Russia reaffirms Finland’s decision to swiftly join NATO following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Now, Russia is stepping up the provocations by starting to build up forces along the border, which is enough to make the Finnish government suspicious.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today there are a lot of interesting updates from the Russian Federation.

Here, Ukraine has officially unleashed its newly developed bomber drones, marking a major escalation in its ability to strike deep into Russian territory. With advanced precision, extended range, and overwhelming cost-efficiency, these drones are already devastating Russian military infrastructure—setting the stage for a transformative shift in the battlefield dynamic.

Over the weeks, the Ukrainians conducted a series of successful strikes against military and economic targets in Russia, which resulted in damage to over half a hundred military industrial factories, strategic airbases, microelectronics producers, chemical plants, fiber optic facilities, and key logistical routes, including the Kerch bridge. 

Recently, Ukrainians presented the new Batyar-S strike drone, which resembles the Russian Shahed and Geranium strike drones, but only on the outside. Designed from scratch, the new Ukrainian drone has an effective flight range of over 800 kilometers (497 miles) while carrying an 18-kilogram explosive warhead. 

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Additionally, the drone is lighter than Shahed, weighing only 60 kilograms, which allows the Ukrainians to deploy it using trucks as launch platforms, making it easy to quickly and efficiently deploy it for any strikes. On top of that, it features superior optical systems that analyze landscapes and terrain in real-time, combining them with satellite footage to adjust its flight trajectory towards the target, and stay as low as possible to evade radar detection and air defenses.

However, one of its biggest advantages is that the Batyar-S drone costs approximately 4 times less than the Ukrainian strike drones currently in use, meaning that Ukrainians will be able to produce four times as many drones and strike 4 times the targets.

As the Ukrainians focus their development on drone technology for various purposes, they have also developed a new bomber drone, the B-1.  B-1 drones are ultralight bomber drones designed to destroy concentrations of manpower, trucks, armored vehicles, and military strongholds on the frontline and in the rear. 

Bomber drones are designed to carry repurposed drone-droppable hand grenades, artillery shells, or other explosives on Russian positions as they fly over their target. The light weight of the drone and its low-noise engine allow it to fly towards Russian lines almost unnoticed, while the drone itself can stay in the air for several hours.

Early frontline reports suggest the drone is extremely resilient against Russian electronic warfare, making it a deadly precision weapon that can hit targets far beyond the range of pre-existing Ukrainian bomber drones like the Vampire hexacopter, already nicknamed the Baba Yaga by both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers for its deadliness. 

The newly developed drone technologies will massively enhance Ukrainian strike capabilities against Russian targets on the frontline and in the deep rear. Ukrainian strikes have already damaged and destroyed production facilities, essential for rebuilding Russia’s strategic bomber fleet after they lost a third of them during Operation Spiderweb.

Ukrainians have also crippled direct Russian production of weapons and ammunition manufacturing, with strikes on long range drone and fiber optic facilities, ammunition factories, and chemical and technical facilities producing rockets and missiles. Now, with the new drones, Ukrainians will be able to strike four times more targets, and much more effectively, promising death and destruction for the Russian frontline and the rear. 

Overall, the Ukrainians effectively maximized the results of their precision strikes against targets in Russia, while developing new drones based on the experience gained from these strikes. These new variants will be able to hit Russia like never before and seriously undermine the Russian summer offensive; as the Russians go all-in for this summer, so are the Ukrainians, promising a decisive military campaign over the next few months, which might well decide the outcome of the war in Ukraine. 

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Kursk direction. Here, Russian soldiers were paralyzed by an intense Ukrainian bombing campaign, while Ukrainian ground forces closed in on their flanks.

With two companies already encircled and wiped out, Russian soldiers made a desperate plea for reinforcements; however, this relief force walked right into a Ukrainian trap. Ukrainian forces are closing in on Tyotkino with a pincer maneuver threatening full encirclement of the town.

The situation for Russian troops is critical, as up to two companies, around 250 soldiers, are trapped in a shrinking pocket after Ukrainians broke through the town center. Ukrainian drone fire control and constant surveillance make all roads in and out of Tyotkino highly dangerous, blocking Russian evacuation and reinforcements.

Airstrikes devastate Russian sefenses in Kursk oblast

Meanwhile, Ukrainian aircraft relentlessly strike Russian strongpoints, command centers, drone hubs, and troop concentrations with growing intensity. Ukrainian air strikes are proving devastating for the Russians in Kursk, destroying fortified positions and eliminating dozens of Russian troops at once.

Over the past two weeks, at least 15 documented bombings have been conducted against Russian force concentrations in and around Tyotkino alone, with estimated casualties reaching up to 300 soldiers. These targeted strikes have created critical gaps in Russian defenses, further enabling the Ukrainian push.

Despite the worsening conditions, the Russian command had largely neglected the defense of Tyotkino, focusing instead on sustaining their offensive in Sumy Oblast. As a result, only a limited force was left to hold the town, insufficient to stop the Ukrainian advance. Desperate for support, isolated Russian troops are now calling for reinforcements, fearing they may not survive unless help arrives soon.

Ukrainian HIMARS strike destroys Russian convoy in Rylsk

In response to the Ukrainian advance on Tyotkino, Russian forces urgently began deploying reinforcements to prevent a full encirclement. These reinforcements were drawn from reserve units originally amassed for the planned offensive in Sumy. Ukrainian officials had recently warned that Russia was preparing its largest military buildup in six months, including the redeployment of 10 self-propelled artillery units and over 40 trucks loaded with troops and ammunition from Kherson and Crimea toward the Kursk direction.

Unfortunately for Russians, Russian media once again exposed the movements of their column and allowed Ukrainians to increasingly track their movements. This allowed Ukrainians to track Russian force concentrations right to their main base of operations in Rylsk, which had already been struck several times before. They even identified Russians hiding equipment inside a local cultural center before they were combat-ready. Using this intelligence, Ukrainian forces launched a precise HIMARS strike that destroyed the troops and equipment, further delaying reinforcements to Tyotkino.

Failing to reinforce their crumbling defense on the ground, Russian forces deployed fighter jets, hoping to at least stop the Ukrainian air strikes. However, Ukraine was prepared, utilizing the Swedish S-100 Argus AWACS aircraft in conjunction with F-16 fighters. The AWACS has a 400 km detection range, allowing Ukrainians to spot Russian jets deep in Kursk while staying safe inside friendly airspace, beyond Russian air defense range.

Ukrainian F-16s shoot down Russian Su-35 over Kursk

In a one-on-one engagement with the F-16, Russians have the advantage, as their Su-35 jets have more powerful onboard radars with a range of 350 kilometers, compared to the F-16’s 110-kilometer range. However, with AWACS support, Ukrainian F-16s gained extended radar reach and early targeting info, enabling them to launch AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles from their maximum range, shooting down an unsuspecting Russian Su-35 fighter jet.

The Russian jet crashed near the border with Ukraine, while the pilot managed to eject and seek cover in the fields, as the plane itself was visually confirmed to be destroyed by Ukrainian drone surveillance. Subsequently, the shootdown was further verified by a Russian helicopter search and rescue team, which came to evacuate the pilot.

Overall, Ukraine achieved near-total aerial dominance over Tyotkino and surrounding areas in Kursk, leveraging Swedish S-100 Argus AWACS and F-16 jets to detect and shoot down any Russian aircraft attempting to respond.

Russian fighters are warning that Ukrainians are about to gain extremely advantageous defensive positions in Kursk if they capture Tyotkino. They warned that the failure of the Russian command to adequately respond would result in Russian soldiers being forced to once again resort to costly, grinding attritional attacks to take back the lost territories in Kursk.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Russian Federation. Here, the increasing number of warnings, which have evolved into outright open threats from Russia, has pushed the Kazakhstan government to take decisive steps towards establishing an alliance with Western countries.

From changing key trade partners to seeking new military alliances, Kazakhstan seems determined to ensure its stability in the case of any Russian escalation. Kazakhstan, long considered a critical strategic partner by Russia, is increasingly distancing itself from Moscow’s orbit, underscoring a wider fracturing of Russian alliances in Central Asia.

Russia’s interests in Kazakhstan run deep, with military bases such as the famed Baikonur Cosmodrome, a crucial facility for space launches. Kazakhstan’s geographic proximity to vital Russian military installations and its abundant natural resources, including energy and minerals, have traditionally made it strategically significant to Moscow.

Additionally, the considerable ethnic Russian population of approximately 20%, mostly concentrated near the Kazakh-Russian border, has periodically been leveraged by Russia as justification for exerting more influence or issuing veiled threats to maintain Kazakhstan’s pro-Russian alignment.

Kazakhstan drops pro-Russian defense chief

Russia used the same rhetoric to justify its war in Ukraine, which is causing considerable concern for the Kazakh government. President Vladimir Putin made comments about Kazakhstan’s territorial integrity, suggesting that regional borders were a product of Soviet-era decisions and mentioning that Kazakhstan’s current territorial makeup was not as historically valid as it might seem.

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The recent dismissal of Kazakhstan’s pro-Russian defense minister, Ruslan Zhaksylykov, exemplifies a transition. Known for his overtly pro-Russian stance, he faced domestic criticism due to various scandals, including alleged corruption linked to military procurement, and controversial remarks during meetings with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, when he declared the Russians a brother people, echoing Kremlin narratives used in Ukraine.

His replacement by Dauren Kosanov, former Commander of the Air Defense Forces, signals a significant policy shift. President Tokayev’s swift administrative moves underscore an accelerated shift toward adopting Western military standards, demonstrated further by the country’s increasingly frequent joint exercises with NATO nations such as Türkiye and recent agreements with the United Kingdom.

The signing of a defense cooperation agreement with the UK marks a significant step. It emphasizes peacekeeping training, English language education, and the enrollment of Kazakh officers in British military academies. Though framed as soft power, these steps mirror Britain’s long-term influence strategy in emerging defense partnerships.

Kazakhstan is also already participating in NATO-standard ammunition production projects, further cementing its defense pivot.

Kazakhstan cuts key war exports to Russia

Historically, Kazakhstan, alongside Uzbekistan, has supplied substantial quantities of cotton pulp used to produce nitrocellulose—critical in the manufacture of Russian explosives and gunpowder. These exports, though officially neutral, have supported Russia’s war industry.

Recent indicators, however, suggest Kazakhstan is cutting back these shipments and exploring Western-oriented military supply chains. If fully redirected toward NATO-aligned countries, the move would deal a serious blow to Russia’s ammunition production capability, especially as the Ukraine war drags on.

Russian analysts and political circles have expressed outrage, framing Kazakhstan’s realignment as a betrayal and warning of lost Russian dominance in Central Asian security affairs.

Kazakhstan deepens military ties with the West

Kazakhstan is not only turning militarily, but also economically and diplomatically toward Europe. Talks with the European Union about easing visa rules are ongoing, symbolizing Astana’s long-term intent to integrate more closely with Western institutions.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is working to free itself from energy dependence on Russia. The country is expanding use of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to export oil via Türkiye to Europe. This bypass of Russian territory undermines Moscow’s regional leverage and opens Kazakhstan to broader markets.

Taken together, these moves show Kazakhstan responding decisively to rising threats—choosing independence, diversification, and closer ties to NATO and the EU over continued reliance on an increasingly aggressive neighbor.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from Ukraine.

Here, Ukrainian forces are unleashing a wave of precision strikes supplied for by the French arms industry—obliterating Russian positions, command posts, and troop concentrations with deadly accuracy. In response to their success, France is sending its entire production of these guided bombs this year straight to Ukraine, doubling Ukraine’s monthly supply and escalating the pressure on Russian forces.

French Army General Nicolas Richoux recently stated that sanctions alone are not enough to bring Russia to the negotiating table. According to him, the only realistic path to a ceasefire, or any negotiated peace, requires the West to deliver large-scale military assistance to Ukraine. Other officials agreed and reiterated that the only way to reach peace and deter Russia further is by arming Ukraine to the teeth by any means necessary. France has provided over €8 billion in military aid since the start of the war, including advanced systems like the AASM-guided bombs, which have proven highly effective on the battlefield.

Combat footage from the battlefield reveals how the Hammer-guided bombs rarely miss, which is why the Ukrainians used them to great effect to strike and demolish Russian command posts, force concentration, and control points for Russian drone operators. 

In Bakhmut, Ukrainians hit such an exact Russian command post of the Third Army Corps in a high-rise building, eliminating the high-level commanders, and delaying the already slow assaults in the Chasiv Yar area. 

In Kursk, Ukrainian first started bombing buildings in Tyotkino where Russian drone operators were stationed. 

They then expanded their operations by striking against Russian strongpoints and fortifications concealed in the tree lines in the border area, scoring direct impacts, and destroying the strongholds. 

The most significant Ukrainian strikes targeted and destroyed large Russian forces concentrations in Guyevo, using drones to detect them and then relay information to fighter jets, destroying Russian forces that were preparing for an assault in Sumy. 

In coordination with the reconnaissance teams, the Ukrainian Air Force also struck concealed positions of Russian drone operators deep in the rear, effectively eliminating a big part of the Russian drone threat. 

The Ukrainian precision bomb strikes in Kursk against Russian forces’ concentrations, command posts, and drone operators are aimed at thwarting the Russian summer offensive in this area, eliminating their forces in the rear before they organize for attacks, and undermining their drone support. 

Ukrainian Air Force has also been very active in Zaporizhzhia, launching a destructive series of strikes against the Russian units. 

Geolocated combat footage reveals how the Ukrainians identified and destroyed multiple buildings at once where Russian drone operators were hiding, outmatching the operators completely. 

Here, Ukrainians also did not miss Russian forces’ concentrations, destroying large numbers of the little reserves Russians have stationed here. 

Lastly, they hit a series of Russian command posts, cutting the head off the snake in Russian attempts to revitalize an offensive in Zaporizhzhia.

The effectiveness of AASM Hammer bombs only increased their demand among Ukrainian Air Force personnel, who praised them for their precision and effectiveness, and urged the French to deliver more of them. Given the excellent results, French officials stated that they will produce over 1,200 AASM Hammer guided bombs this year, and will send all of them to Ukraine. 

The AASM Hammer is a modular kit that turns standard 125 to 1,000 kilogram bombs into precision-guided weapons. It combines a nose-mounted guidance system with added wings on the tail and a solid-fuel booster to give it a range of up to 70 km from fighter jets while still being deadly accurate, allowing Ukraine to hit Russian targets precisely while staying out of the range of Russian air defenses. Using a combination of GPS, infrared, and inertial navigation, it maintains high accuracy even in bad weather or under jamming, meaning that once it’s launched, Russians can do nothing to stop it from connecting with its target. 

Overall, the Ukrainian forces intensified their air strikes against the Russians ever since the recent delivery of French AASM Hammer-guided bombs, with up to 30 visually confirmed bomb strikes against Russian forces confirmed in the last month alone. The recently announced increase in production and delivery is doubling the bomb supply to Ukrainians, which will simultaneously double the Russian losses inflicted by them.

The Ukrainians utilized Hammer bombs to strike Russian forces’ concentrations, all of which usually contain a full unit or company of at least ten to fifty soldiers, meaning that the newly announced delivery of 1200 French bombs could wipe out from 6- to 30,000 Russian soldiers, including key officers in the rear areas – capabilities that will play a crucial role in repelling the Russian summer offensive.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Kupiansk direction. Here, as Russian losses have officially hit an unprecedented 1 million count, the breaking point finally came, and the soldiers began turning their rifles on their own commanders rather than face certain death in futile assaults.

Three bullets on road to Nyzhnia Duvanka

In one of the most brutal recent examples of growing disorder within Russian ranks, several Russian soldiers near the settlement of Nyzhnia Duvanka in the Luhansk region turned on their own.

By shooting and killing the military police platoon commander and two of his barrier troop subordinates and running away, they sparked a frantic search operation by Russian authorities.

The deserters left their comrades to lie dead on the road while fleeing to save their lives from both Ukrainian and Russian fire.

Pischane funnel: Where men disappear

This violent mutiny did not emerge in a vacuum; it is directly tied to the hopeless bloodbath unfolding near the Kupiansk front, specifically at the Pischane funnel. For months, Russian forces have tried and failed to break through Ukrainian defenses here.

The Ukrainians have created a deadly trap by controlling the flanks, exposing any Russian assault to relentless drone and artillery fire from both sides. Yet commanders continue to send wave after wave of infantry into the funnel, hoping to drive a wedge through Ukrainian lines.

Every new wave knows exactly how it will end, as almost no one from previous groups returns alive. The systematic nature of these assaults has been likened to mass execution, with soldiers pushed forward not for tactical gain but to serve as human battering rams.

Mad Max cars and vanishing men

To make matters worse, Russian troops are being sent into combat in improvised Mad Max-style vehicles, like the Gaz-69, which entered production in 1952, the year of Stalin’s death, and regular cars fitted with rudimentary armor or even none.

Such improvised motorcycle squads and barely armored vehicles now lead the charge, only to be annihilated by Ukrainian FPV drones well before reaching the contact line. These desperate measures highlight not only material shortages but a total disregard for the lives of Russian troops.

Ukrainian surveillance drones ensure that almost no movement goes undetected, meaning most assaults are decimated long before they engage the defenders.

When running is not option

Despite the carnage, desertions in the Russian army remain surprisingly rare. The reason lies in the sheer brutality of the punishments for refusing to fight.

Soldiers who resist are subjected to medieval-style torture. Some are thrown into pits without food before being forced to fight each other to the death to earn the right to live another day.

In one documented case, soldiers were tied behind vehicles and dragged through the dirt, while other deserters were forced to bury each other alive as punishment and to serve as an example. In the Lyman area, a surrendering Russian soldier was spotted by Russian drone operators and targeted by his own artillery.

This highlights the impossible choice facing many: surrender and be killed or desert and be hunted. For some, turning against their officers seems to be the only escape.

This toxic atmosphere has bred a surge in violent retaliation. Russian soldiers, driven to the brink by the realization that dying in a pointless assault is their fate if they continue, are increasingly likely to choose to kill their commanders instead, as it is safer than being spotted attempting to surrender to the Ukrainians.

Meanwhile, commanders themselves contribute to the decay by labeling active soldiers as deserters to avoid paying their wages, denying them medical care, and forcing under-equipped men into combat.

A recent appeal by the families of men from the Russian 54th Motorized Rifle Regiment revealed horrifying conditions: soldiers were beaten and handcuffed, robbed of personal belongings, and left to die without evacuation.

Wounded men are forced to crawl back to safety, and the dead are simply abandoned, confirmed by footage showing bodies of dead Russian soldiers that haven’t been moved for months since the snow covered the fields.

Million-man grave and rot within

The downward spiral is accelerating. Russian military losses have just surpassed one million casualties, including killed, wounded, and captured.

Equipment losses are equally staggering, with 10,000 destroyed and damaged tanks and over 20,000 armored vehicles of various types.

Lacking armor, modern vehicles, or meaningful support, commanders now rely on sheer manpower and suicidal frontal attacks to advance the line ever so slowly. But the more men are lost, the worse morale gets, and the more inclined troops are coming to view their superiors as the enemy instead of the Ukrainians they are forced to fight.

Overall, such events create a vicious cycle.

The collapse of discipline and the dehumanizing tactics employed by Russian commanders will inevitably lead to more incidents where soldiers turn their weapons on their leaders.

To prevent this, the officers are only doubling down on cruelty, inventing new, more barbaric punishments. This internal rot may not only undermine Russia’s ability to continue the war, but it could also ultimately sabotage its war effort from within.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Russian Federation. Here, deep inside Russia, the Ukrainians are launching coordinated precision strikes to diminish the effectiveness of Russian drone strikes against Ukraine.

With strikes aimed at fiber optic and battery factories, the Ukrainians are targeting every element of the Russian production chain that enables them to produce drones.

Russia recently launched one of its most devastating drone strikes in Ukraine, deploying over 400 drones, 40 cruise missiles, and 6 ballistic missiles. This escalation reflects Russia’s surging drone production, over 2,000 Shahed drones and 2,000 Garpiya drones per month, plus thousands of Gerbera decoys to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

While Ukraine holds an edge in drone quality, production, and adaptability, Russian drone strikes remain a major obstacle for the Ukrainians, bolstered by Russian mass production of lethal fiber-optic variants.

Drone factories burn as Ukraine hits key sites

As the Russian summer offensive is underway, the Ukrainians understand that they must cut down the production numbers of Russian drones as much as possible. To achieve this, they have launched another massive drone strike campaign targeting the Russian ability to even produce and field FPV drones in the first place.

Recently, the Ukrainians struck the Kronshtadt plant in the city of Dubna near Moscow, collapsing the roof of the factory. Kronshtadt has led Russian drone development for 15 years, producing and designing advanced drones for the Russian army.

On top of that, the Ukrainians struck the Elma technopark in Zelenograd to the north of Moscow, inflicting damage to the main building of it. The facility, located in the heart of Zelenograd, hosts the development of IT, microelectronics, robotics, and medical technology.

Right before that, the Ukrainians struck the Energia plant in the city of Yelets during a night strike, which caused a strong explosion visible in the distance. Satellite footage revealed that the factory suffered significant damage, with the partially collapsed roof of the production hall revealing that the fire engulfed everything inside. This factory is used to produce batteries for Russian drones, missiles, aircraft, and naval systems.

Repeat strikes wreck Russia’s drone supply chain

Ukrainians also targeted the fiber-optic factory in Saransk. A direct drone strike caused severe damage to the main building, setting it on fire. To ensure the factory remained out of commission, as it is the only fiber optic plant in Russia, the Ukrainians launched a follow-up strike just as the repairs were completed.

This was complemented by an even more devastating strike against a hidden Russian drone assembly factory in the city of Obukhovo in Kaluga Oblast. The Ukrainians managed to strike the plant and cause huge fires and several explosions, which forced the local officials to evacuate the area.

It is also important to note that, as previously reported, Ukrainians struck the massive Yelabuga drone factory with 6 fab bombs, the primary Russian facility producing most of Russia’s Shahed drones.

So, Ukrainians hit every segment of the Russian drone production chain; design, microelectronics, fiber optic wire production, battery, and final assembly lines. This will directly result in a lower number of Shahed and FPV drones that Russians can launch, meaning that Russian drone strikes will be more manageable to Ukrainian air defenses, exponentially reducing civilian casualties.

Fewer drones, stronger lines: Ukraine gains edge

Russian tactics have also grown to depend heavily on tactical and reconnaissance drones, most importantly to cut Ukrainian logistics lines and reinforcement routes. If Ukrainians can keep up their strike campaign, and further undermine Russian production, it results into Ukrainian soldiers on the ground have fewer drones to worry about.

This means that the Ukrainian defense lines can maintain and expect a steadier inflow of supplies, reinforcements, and rotations, crucial if Ukrainians are to repel the Russian summer offensive effectively.

Overall, the Ukrainians are conducting a strike campaign deep inside Russia to inflict tremendous blows to Russian drone production, which will reduce to a lower intensity of drone strikes against Ukrainian civilian and military infrastructure. The lowered number of drones launched in strikes against Ukraine, in combination with the work of Ukrainian air defense, will lead to a point where the impact of their strikes is reduced to a minimum.

The reduction of drone operations will also relieve Ukrainian logistics that have been suffering from fiber optic drone strikes, while the forces at critical frontline positions will be able to properly reinforce and dig in at their positions.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Baltic Sea. Here, being one of the most targeted countries in the area by Russian sabotage acts, Sweden decided to act decisively.

As one of the newest NATO members and having the largest Baltic coastline, Sweden set out to tighten its grip on the Russian shadow fleet operations to eliminate any possibility of new hybrid attacks on its infrastructure.

Recently, Russian maritime activity in the Baltic Sea has become increasingly aggressive and suspicious, with a series of incidents pointing to a pattern of Russian sabotage targeting undersea infrastructure. The sabotage operations started in December 2024, when a shadow fleet oil tanker operating under questionable ownership damaged undersea data and communication cables off Finland, likely by dragging a loose anchor.

Just a month later, a Russian-linked vessel damaged a critical undersea cable between Latvia and Sweden, triggering a full-scale sabotage investigation. The pattern continued at the end of May when the shadow fleet tanker Sun was detected dangerously close to a key Poland-Sweden power cable and was forced to retreat after intervention by the Polish Navy.

Subsequent Russian provocations near Estonian waters and reports of Polish forces driving away Russian vessels operating near Swedish cables underscore the escalating threat.

New Swedish inspections aim to block Russian sabotage

In response to recent provocations, Sweden is joining NATO’s regional efforts by tightening inspections of Russian shadow fleet tankers. From 1 July, the Swedish Coast Guard will require insurance documentation from all vessels transiting its territorial waters or economic zone, not just those docking at ports. This enforces the EU’s April 2025 directive and reflects Sweden’s resolve to counter the risks posed by the Russian shadow fleet.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stated that growing incidents in the Baltic demand preparedness, while Justice Minister Gunnar Strommer emphasized the need for increased inspections, calling the shadow fleet a threat to maritime safety.

Sweden has already been patrolling shipping lanes and monitoring these tankers, but the new rules significantly expand enforcement authority. The signal is clear, and Sweden is no longer willing to tolerate covert Russian activity in the Baltic.

This move also comes amid heightened Russian rhetoric. Moscow has declared its willingness to use all means to respond to inspections and has begun deploying naval escorts for shadow fleet tankers. Following recent airspace violations over Finland and Estonia, and confrontational language from Russia’s UN ambassador comparing inspections to piracy, NATO states are preparing for further escalation.

If Russia decides to again try to chase away NATO vessels inspecting a shadow fleet ship, Sweden has nearly 100 Gripen fighter jets on rapid response standby. These jets are equipped with advanced radar, electronic warfare systems, and extended range, making them a formidable asset for controlling Baltic airspace and intercepting Russian aircraft.

Sweden bolsters NATO defense amid Russian threats

Additionally, Sweden’s Navy is built and optimized for the Baltic Sea’s confined and shallow waters, and includes numerous patrol ships, corvettes, and submarines. Even before Sweden’s NATO membership, its forces did not shy away from acting against Russia for violating their territorial waters or airspace, making them well-prepared for any scenario.

The Russian shadow fleet remains a critical component of Moscow’s sanctions evasion strategy. Comprised of aging oil tankers operating under false flags and opaque ownership, the fleet moves Russian Urals crude oil around the world while avoiding Western scrutiny. Over 50% of this fleet transits the Baltic Sea, using the key and most developed Russian ports with the highest available capacity, such as Primorsk and Ust-Luga, before moving toward customers primarily in Asia.

The Baltic is ideal due to its hard-to-police maritime corridors and legal complexity, making enforcement difficult. This same factor also allows covert Russian operations, such as laying surveillance devices or damaging underwater infrastructure under the guise of commercial shipping. The sheer volume of this traffic poses both security and environmental risks to Sweden and its neighbors.

Overall, Sweden’s decision to take a firmer line marks a critical shift in regional security. As one of NATO’s newest and most strategically located members, Sweden’s participation significantly boosts the alliance’s capability to police the Baltic Sea.

By enforcing new inspection rules, Sweden joins a coordinated effort already supported by Poland, Estonia, and Finland to limit Russia’s operational freedom in the region. While it may not completely hold shadow fleet operations, Sweden’s involvement will force Russia to scale back its provocations and complicate any further attempts to sabotage undersea infrastructure.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there is a lot of interesting updates from the Russian Federation.

Here, Ukraine is launching a coordinated campaign across Russia’s military-industrial heartland, to cripple the Kremlin’s ability to wage high-tech war. With a devastating cyberattack on the Tupolev Design Bureau and precision strikes on microelectronics plants, Ukraine is not just targeting weapons, it is forcing Russia’s production capabilities back to the stone age.

The Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb inflicted significant losses on Russia, with 25 strategic aircraft confirmed damaged or destroyed. Notably, Russian authorities are already trying to hide the extent of the damage by swapping out destroyed bombers for intact ones taken from airfields not hit by the strikes.

To complement the severe blow against the Russian strategic bomber aviation, the Ukrainian Military Intelligence conducted an extensive cyberattack on the Tupolev Design Bureau, which designs and produces all Russian strategic bombers. Ukrainian intelligence gained access to more than 4 gigabytes of sensitive data. The leaked files include internal correspondence between company executives, personal data of employees, home addresses, biographies of engineers and designers, procurement documents, and classified disclosures from closed-door meetings. 

The breach provides Ukrainians with comprehensive insight into operations and personnel involved in maintaining Russia’s strategic aviation fleet. This information could be used for the sabotage of the plant through low-ranking aviation engineers who can be recruited into Ukrainian information networks, with humans always being the weakest link in such large-scale organizations. 

Additionally, to cement the inability of Russians to rebuild their strategic bomber fleet, the Ukrainians decided to strike factories that produced other high-tech components necessary for the Russian war effort. These factories produce various microchips and technology essential in the production of Russian bombers, tanks, missiles, guidance systems, vision sights, and radars.

The Ukrainians most recently struck the Avangard microchip and radio-electronics factory in Saint Petersburg. While Russian media initially claimed that all Ukrainian drones were intercepted, Russian emergency services confirmed a major fire in the section of the plant responsible for microchip production and assembly. Thick black smoke was seen rising from the facility, with the blaze covering around 100 square meters.

Before that, Ukrainian drones targeted the Bolkhov Semiconductor Device Plant, scoring multiple direct hits on the main building. The explosions triggered extensive fires that spread across the facility, causing significant damage and putting the factory out of commission.

Earlier, the Strela microelectronics plant in the town of Suzemka, Bryansk region, was struck. Located just 8 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, it was within range of HIMARS strikes, which caused the most extensive damage of all the targeted Russian military-industrial plants. Satellite imagery later confirmed that nearly the entire facility was destroyed, leaving no operational production capacity.

Finally, the Ukrainians hit the Kremniy El microelectronics plant in the city of Bryansk, delivering multiple strikes that ignited a large fire throughout the site. This was the fifth attack on the plant since the start of the war, but the latest damage appears to be the most devastating yet.

The Ukrainian strikes had a major impact, targeting key sites in Russia’s military-industrial complex. The Avangard plant, where a massive fire broke out, produces radio electronics, microchips, and communication systems used in ballistic and cruise missiles, with even Russian authorities listing it as one of the most strategically important facilities. 

The strike on the Bolkhov plant was even more severe, disrupting the production of critical components for Sukhoi fighter jets, Iskander ballistic missiles, and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. The Strela plant in Suzemka, which produces microchips for systems like the Tor air defense platform, was entirely reduced to rubble and must be rebuilt from the ground up.

Meanwhile, the Kremniy El plant in Bryansk, one of Russia’s largest microelectronics producers, supplied parts for Pantsir systems and Iskander missiles. These strikes severely limit Russia’s ability to produce advanced weaponry, forcing a shift to lower-tech solutions that reduce combat effectiveness and increase frontline losses.

Overall, the Ukrainians conducted some of the most devastating strikes on the Russian military industry in recent months. With over thirty percent of Russia’s nuclear-capable strategic bombers destroyed, Ukrainians are now starting to dismantle their ability to build these weapons entirely. The breach of the Tupolev Design Bureau internal systems means now Ukraine possesses Russia’s most sensitive data on its strategic bombers designs and still active aircraft fuelling future precision strikes and combat operations that place the remaining Russian fleet at serious and growing risk. 

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there is interesting news from the Middle East.

Here, OPEC has made a decisive move to punish member states violating production quotas by ramping up output and pushing oil prices to new lows. As the global markets react, the shockwaves hit Russia the hardest, with its economy, already strangled by sanctions and inflation, now gasping for air under the weight of collapsing revenues and shrinking influence within the oil cartel.

OPEC+ raises output, sending oil prices tumbling

Recently, OPEC+ announced plans for a significant increase in oil production for July, adding 411,000 barrels per day. This is the third consecutive monthly hike, and the move aims to regain market share, and discipline overproducing members like Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan. Despite the risk of oversupply, the group, led by Saudi Arabia, is prioritizing volume over price to reassert its influence in the global oil market, building on its previous decision not to increase prices.

The immediate effect of this decision has been a notable decline in oil prices. Brent Crude, sourced from the North Sea, has fallen to approximately 65 dollars per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate produced in the United States is trading around 63 dollars, marking the lowest levels since early 2021. Analysts anticipate that this trend may continue, with forecasts suggesting that Brent Crude could hold the same reduced price for the entire year. Goldman Sachs projects that oil prices might average 60 dollars per barrel this year and potentially dip to 56 dollars in 2026. In more extreme scenarios, where global economic conditions worsen significantly, prices could even fall below 50 dollars per barrel.

Russian crude slides below budgeted threshold

For Russia, these developments pose significant challenges. As of early June 2025, the price of Russian Urals crude oil has fallen below 50 dollars per barrel, marking its lowest level since June 2023. Specifically, in April, Urals crude was priced at around 47.50 dollars. This is extremely below the 70-dollar benchmark used in the initial Russian budget planning for the year. It is estimated that each 10-dollar drop in oil prices costs Russia approximately 17 billion dollars annually. The resulting revenue gap of around 40 billion dollars is expected to widen the deficit to 10% of the projected Russian annual budget of approximately 415 billion dollars.

Gulf states challenge Russia in Asia

Moreover, Russia’s position in the Asian oil market is under threat. While Russia has been exporting discounted oil to countries like India and China, with the massive increase in production, other OPEC+ members are also targeting these markets, increasing competition and potentially driving prices even lower, while at the same time offering better quality oil compared to the Russians. This increased competition in Asia could erode Russia’s market share and further impact its oil revenues.

Russia’s influence within OPEC+ declines

Additionally, Russia’s influence within OPEC+ appears to be waning. The recent production increases have been driven primarily by Saudi Arabia, with Russia reportedly unhappy about these hikes. This shift suggests that Gulf states are increasingly dictating policy according to their own interests, potentially sidelining Russia in the decision-making process.

Sanctions, tariffs, and strikes cripple Moscow’s oil prospects

Russia is unlikely to benefit from increased production due to several factors. Tougher sanctions that get enforced more and more vigorously, price caps aimed to cripple the Russian oil revenue, and damaged refining capabilities, courtesy of Ukrainian precision strikes, limit Russia’s ability to capitalize on higher output. Furthermore, the production cost of Urals crude is higher compared to Brent Crude, as well as Brent having higher quality and being easier to refine into gasoline and diesel. There is also constant uncertainty about new sanctions coming soon, including a 500% secondary tariff being actively discussed in the US Senate, which would target countries buying oil and other natural resources from Russia. All this makes Russian oil less competitive in the global market and ruins all plans that have been made for the Russian budget, which is already under enough stress due to the ongoing war efforts in Ukraine.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Sea of Japan. Here, after Ukraine’s audacious underwater drone strike on the Kerch Bridge, Russian analysts have begun sounding the alarm over the possibility of an even more devastating follow-up.

To them, the Kerch operation wasn’t just a spectacular success—it looked like a rehearsal for something far more dangerous, aimed at Russia’s most sensitive naval bases in the far east.

In light of the massively successful operation Spiderweb, showing Ukraine’s ability to strike deep in the heart of Russian territory by both conventional and unconventional means, the Ukrainian Security Service carried out another stunning strike. In their own, so-called, special operation, Ukrainians hit the underwater support structure of the Kerch bridge. The estimated 1,100 kilogram explosion detonated around 10 meters deep, making the damage more difficult to assess and repair.

Notably, Ukraine announced the strike by releasing footage taken from a Russian security camera, showing how deeply infiltrated Ukrainian intelligence services are in Russian networks.

New Toloka drones threaten Russian naval defenses

To conduct the strike, Ukrainians used a new variant of underwater naval drone, the Toloka 1,000 or the Toloka 400. These new underwater drones, upgrades of the Toloka 150, can deliver between half a ton and 5 tons of explosives at a range of 1,000 to 2,000 kilometers, respectively. The drones can operate at a depth of up to 40 meters. Their compact design and quiet propulsion systems make them ideal for covert sabotage missions against high-value Russian naval and logistics infrastructure.

However, Russian analysts note that Ukraine could have used multiple Toloka drones in sequence to breach defenses and collapse the bridge. They suggest that this was therefore not the main strike, but rather a field test of upgraded underwater drone capabilities.

Operation Spiderweb demonstrated that Ukraine can strike deep into Russia using unconventional platforms, hitting unexpected targets beyond traditional frontlines. Now, with new and upgraded underwater drones in play, Russian analysts started raising the alarm that the Pacific naval assets are under imminent threat.

Russia warns of possible drone strikes in Pacific

Russian analysts are worried that to hit Russia’s far east, Ukrainians could realistically use container ships laden with concealed naval drones. The Ukrainians operate a large fleet of merchant vessels, including container ships. These are more difficult to regulate and inspect, making it easier to smuggle the underwater drones in them.

Furthermore, careful coordination of shipping towards international ports of Ukrainian allies, such as Australia, the United States, Japan, and South Korea, could reduce the risk of such an operation being intercepted, especially with the cooperation of allied intelligence services.

Once the container ships enter the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk, or even dock in Russian ports, they would already be within range of releasing underwater drones, with the Toloka 1,000 having a range of 2,000 kilometers at the least. Ukraine could launch these drones from the deck or through an underwater configuration comparable to a torpedo launch.

Ukraine eyes Russian nuclear submarine base in Kamchatka

The targets would be the Russian naval bases in Vladivostok and on the Kamchatka Peninsula. The Vladivostok base houses the Russian Pacific surface fleet, with several destroyers, corvettes, and the flagship of the Russian Pacific fleet, the Cruiser Varyag. The base in Kamchatka houses Russia’s nuclear submarines, which are carriers of both nuclear-capable ballistic and cruise missiles, and is known as one of Russia’s most secure facilities.

With the Toloka 1,000 having a maximum payload of up to 5 tons, 10 times higher than conventional torpedoes shown on screen now, Ukrainians could hit and sink several ships with only one drone. Such strikes would not have a direct military impact for Ukraine, but it would bring the war to the Russian home front in a way never seen before.

Ukraine expands war to Russian Pacific fleet

Additionally, it would undermine Russia’s ability to defend itself in a broader sense, eroding the Russian nuclear triad even further, after already having lost over a third of its strategic bomber fleet. Such an operation would exponentially magnify the pressure on Russia to seek a realistic negotiated peace settlement, as the Ukrainian Istanbul delegation already noted how, after the launch of Operation Spiderweb, their Russian counterparts were much less hostile than before.

Overall, Ukraine’s strike on the Kerch Bridge fits into a broader, coordinated campaign, seemingly without range limitations. It marks the start of a new phase in long-range underwater warfare. With upgraded Toloka drones now capable of reaching over 2,000 kilometers, Russian analysts openly worry this was only a trial run, and that Ukraine’s real targets lie in the Pacific, where Russian nuclear submarines and warships sit vulnerable in a false sense of security.

As the pressure mounts and the reach of Ukraine’s unconventional operations expands, Ukraine is actively undermining Russia’s domestic and international projection of strength and invincibility.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Russian Federation. Here, Ukrainian forces have begun targeting not just the Russian military equipment, but the factories that produce them deep in the industrial core of the country.

By striking key munitions plants responsible for explosives, bomb kits, and artillery components, they’ve set off a chain reaction that could choke Russia’s ability to sustain its summer offensive.

The goal of the Ukrainians here is to prevent the Russians from rebuilding their ammunition stockpiles after the latest destruction of the large GRAU artillery arsenal in Vladimir Oblast. The success of this attack led to the destruction of up to 264 thousand tons of drone, artillery, and missile stockpiles, equating to at least half a year of Russian munitions production.

Russian arms factories burn after precision strikes

To prevent Russians from rebuilding these stockpiles, Ukrainians commenced a devastating series of precision drone strikes, starting with strikes on the Bazalt military-industrial complex in Moscow. Satellite images confirm the strike, a direct on the center of the main building, which was already targeted by Ukrainian drones in the past.

Bazalt is a key Russian defense enterprise, specializing in the design, development, and production of a wide range of munitions for the entire Russian army. Most notably, this plant produces high-explosive and thermobaric FAB glide bombs, which are equipped with guidance kits that are used for frontline and rear strikes by the Russian Air Force.

The disruption of the production of guided bombs at this plant will have a massive effect on the Russian summer offensive, as Russian assault tactics are heavily dependent on glide bomb strikes to destroy detected Ukrainian positions.

Additionally, Ukrainian drones attacked the Murom Instrumentation Plant in Vladimir Oblast, 670 kilometers away from the front. The attack resulted in devastating fire that engulfed the warehouse storing finished materials, while damaging the factory administration building, and a factory building where explosives are synthesized was severely damaged.

Notably, the electronic warfare systems in place at the factory were completely ineffective at repelling the drone strike, indicating that Ukraine is implementing AI targeting software more widely in its long-range strike drones as well.

The plant is known in Russia for producing explosive ignition systems, including caps and primers for various types of ammunition used by the Russian military.

Ammo shortages hit Russian frontlines

Subsequently, the Ukrainians struck the Sverdlov State Enterprise in Dzerzhinsk, nearly 800 kilometers from the frontline, one of the most critical Russian military industrial plants. The plant was already struck in the past year due to its immense strategic significance, as it is the sole producer of high explosives hexogen and octogen, which are essential to produce artillery shells, ballistic missiles, anti-tank guided missiles, glide bombs, and air defense missiles.

At last, the final target of Ukrainian strikes was the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk in the Tula region, 350 kilometers from the front, causing a massive fire that left a significant part of the factory badly damaged. The chemicals produced at Azot, ammonium nitrate, methanol, and argon, are key components in explosives, the production of rocket fuel, and welding and heat treatment of metals used in Russian weapon systems.

The Murom Instrument-Making Plant, NPO Bazalt, Azot Tula Plant and the Sverdlov Plant form a critical link in Russia’s munitions supply chain, producing fuzes, warheads, hard materials, and explosive compounds. Together, they enable the mass production of artillery shells, guided bombs, and missiles heavily used in Russia’s war on Ukraine, and critical for the Russian summer offensive to succeed.

Ukraine targets Russia’s war industry with smart drones

Continued disruption of these facilities, all of which have already been targeted by Ukrainian drones and missiles in the past, will significantly impair Russia’s ability to sustain high-intensity combat operations.

Overall, the Ukrainians conducted precision strikes at most critical parts of the Russian military industrial complex, responsible for producing essential materials for nearly all Russian equipment, ranging from artillery to aerial bombs. Such major sabotages can create prolonged and devastating shortages of ammunition and supplies to frontline units, slowing down Russian offensive efforts as they take months to rebuild.

Ammunition shortages force the Russians to slow down their attacks and fire at lower rates, making breakthroughs more difficult and allowing the Ukrainians to better sustain the pressure. This is of immeasurable value, as the Russians are going all-in for their summer offensive.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.