German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stated that Ukraine should receive security guarantees “that come very close to what NATO membership means” as part of any future peace agreement.

Wadephul argued that substantial security commitments are essential before Ukraine could consider any territorial concessions.

“We cannot demand that Ukraine seriously consider territorial concessions if it does not receive at least real security guarantees from as many states as possible, so that at least the rest will be safe,” the minister said, according to Deutsche Welle.

The German foreign minister expressed optimism that such robust guarantees could eventually persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept a peace framework.

Wadephul contended that comprehensive security arrangements would pose no threat to Russia and “could become the foundation for us in Europe to finally have peace again.”

According to Wadephul, approximately 30 countries, including Japan, have indicated willingness to support Ukraine with security guarantees.

He emphasized the importance of expanding the circle of guarantor nations beyond Europe, particularly noting the need for United States participation in any security framework.

European officials are discussing plans to deploy British and French military personnel to Ukraine as security guarantees, with approximately 10 countries ready to participate in the initiative.

The plan involves European troops initially focusing on training Ukrainian forces away from combat zones, while the US would provide logistics, air support, intelligence sharing, and weapons without deploying American soldiers.

The minister also warned that any breach of security guarantees would constitute “an attack on Ukraine,” underscoring the binding nature of such commitments.

Ukrainian PM: “Strong army and strong economy” are true security guarantees 

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko met with US President’s Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg, who arrived in Kyiv on 24 August, Ukraine’s Independence Day. According to Svyrydenko social media post, their discussions covered security guarantees based on the UN Charter and respect for Ukrainian sovereignty.

Svyrydenko told Kellogg that effective security guarantees must encompass military, political and economic components.

She emphasized that “true security guarantee is a strong Ukrainian army and a strong economy” and stressed the need to preserve Ukraine’s armed forces capabilities while developing domestic industry.

The Ukrainian prime minister also raised the return of prisoners of war, civilians and kidnapped children, as well as preventing the legalization of Russian exploitation of critical minerals and industrial assets in occupied territories.

On 24 August, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also gave an interview to NBC’s “Meet the Press,” where he dismissed President Zelenskyy as illegitimate and demanded Ukraine surrender territories in occupied regions, using the tsarist-era term “Novorossiya” to justify claims over large portions of Ukrainian territory.

He referenced Russia’s sham referendums in occupied areas while insisting Putin wants peace, even as Russian forces continue military operations across eastern Ukraine. 

US Vice President J.D. Vance stated that Russia will “have some stake” in discussions about security guarantees for Ukraine in attempts to bring the war to an end, according to his interview with NBC News.

Vance argued that Russian participation is inevitable given their central role in the war.

“How can you reasonably provide security guarantees without talking to the Russians about what would be necessary to bring the war to a close?” he told NBC News, adding that “they’re the critical party necessary to stop the killing.”

The vice president also maintained the White House position that American military personnel will not be deployed to Ukraine under any security arrangement.

However, he assured that Washington would continue playing an active role in Ukrainian security and suggested European nations and other countries would take on significant responsibilities.

Russia wants security guarantees for Ukraine as discussed in 2022

Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff earlier said that Putin and Trump agreed on “reliable security guarantees” during their Alaska meeting on 15 August, including protections similar to NATO’s Article 5.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, also speaking to NBC News on 24 August, stated that security guarantees must “be built on consensus”.

He revealed that during Alaska talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin briefed Donald Trump on principles the Ukrainian delegation had proposed during April 2022 negotiations in Istanbul.

According to Lavrov, those earlier Ukrainian proposals included establishing a security guarantor group comprising UN Security Council permanent members—Britain, China, the United States, France, and Russia—along with Germany, Türkiye, and other interested nations. The arrangement would require Ukraine to remain neutral, avoid military alliances, and maintain non-nuclear status.

Russia demands territorial concessions

Lavrov also told NBC that Russia does not recognize Zelenskyy as Ukraine’s legitimate leader but only as the “de facto head of the regime.”

Russian Foreign Minister demanded Ukraine surrender occupied territories, referring to eastern and southern Ukrainian regions as “Novorossiya” and insisting Ukraine must “let people go” in these areas. He presented these territorial concessions as conditions for Ukraine’s right to exist as a sovereign state.

Europe ready to deploy peacekeepers

European officials are discussing plans to deploy British and French military personnel to Ukraine as security guarantees, with approximately 10 countries ready to participate in the initiative.

The plan involves European troops initially focusing on training Ukrainian forces away from combat zones, while the US would provide logistics, air support, intelligence sharing, and weapons without deploying American soldiers.

However, several European officials remain skeptical that these guarantees will actually deter Putin, with many expecting peace talks to fail and expose Russia’s unwillingness to end the conflict.

China has signaled its willingness to participate in peacekeeping troops for Ukraine, according to Welt  am Sonntag’s exclusive report citing EU diplomats who referenced Chinese government circles.

The Beijing government would only deploy forces “if the peacekeepers were deployed on the basis of a United Nations (UN) mandate,” the diplomats emphasized.

The Chinese proposal has generated mixed reactions in Brussels. On one hand, involving countries from the Global South like China could increase acceptance for stationing foreign troops to monitor peace. However, concerns persist about Beijing’s true intentions.

“There is also the danger that China mainly wants to spy in Ukraine and in case of conflict would take a clearly pro-Russian position instead of a neutral one,” said a senior EU diplomat familiar with current deliberations.

The diplomatic landscape remains complicated by the fact that most EU countries show limited enthusiasm for equipping potential peacekeeping forces with UN mandates beforehand, though Italy has been actively advocating for this approach for months.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had excluded any agreement on Wednesday without Russian and possibly Chinese participation in discussions about Western-sought security guarantees for Ukraine, including peacekeepers. “The West understands very well that serious discussion about security guarantees without the Russian Federation is utopia,” Lavrov said.

This contradicted US President Trump, who after a phone call with Russian leader Putin on 19 August said he did not believe European security guarantees would be a problem for the Kremlin chief.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected Lavrov’s demands for Chinese participation. “We need security guarantees only from those countries that are ready to help us,” he said.

Beijing has supported Moscow since the beginning of the Ukraine war through billion-dollar oil purchases and delivery of electronic components for precision weapons manufacturing. Both countries maintain what they describe as a “limitless” partnership.

Broad security framework beyond military support

Western security guarantees for Ukraine encompass a broad spectrum beyond military assistance in case of attack, similar to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause. This emerges from the G-7 declaration of mid-July 2023 and the “Joint Security Commitments between the EU and Ukraine” from late July 2024.

Security guarantees include training Ukrainian forces, weapons deliveries, defense industry development assistance, intelligence information, sanctions, economic cooperation, and Ukraine’s gradual EU accession.

Peacekeeping monitoring through modern technology

Senior EU diplomats indicated that ceasefire monitoring could rely primarily on drones rather than traditional frontline deployment. The response to ceasefire violations would need definition in any mandate. One option mirrors the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) monitoring of the Minsk Agreements after the 2014 Crimea annexation, where violations were only registered and reported.

Alternatively, mandates could authorize soldiers to intervene during conflicts.

NATO awaits US troop withdrawal plans

Brussels NATO headquarters awaits American troop withdrawal plans from Europe with high tension. Originally expected in early September through Defense Department Undersecretary Elbridge A. Colby’s presentation, the timeline has shifted to post-Russian-Belarusian “Sapad” exercise in mid-September.

NATO circles expect Washington to withdraw “40,000 to 70,000 of the total up to 100,000 soldiers” from Europe. Some US units would subsequently be deployed for border security or maintaining public safety in cities within US territory.

The Alliance’s political guidance for NATO defense planning may require earlier adjustment than the originally planned 2027 timeline, potentially creating new tasks for the German military.

European officials are actively discussing plans to send British and French military personnel to Ukraine as part of security guarantees following any cessation of hostilities, with approximately 10 countries expressing readiness to participate in the initiative.

Bloomberg reports the security package could take shape this week, as officials rush to finalize details before a potential Putin-Zelenskyy meeting initiated by Trump.

But will America participate? President Trump ruled out US boots on the ground, but offered something else – logistics and air support. Not soldiers.

“We’re willing to help them with things, especially — probably you could talk about by air, because there’s nobody that has the kind of stuff we have,” he told Fox News.

Here’s how the European plan would work.

First stage: European troops stationed away from combat zones, focusing on training Ukrainian forces and providing reinforcements. Think military advisors with real backup, not symbolic presence.

Second stage: American intelligence sharing, border surveillance, weapons, and potentially air defense systems. Europe expects the US to keep providing military hardware through European partners, even without direct American deployment.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also proposed a NATO-like security guarantee—strong allied commitments without actual NATO membership. White House meeting on 18 August gave Trump’s backing for the approach.

Here’s the catch: several European officials remain skeptical about whether any guarantees will actually deter Putin or lead to lasting peace. The plan assumes Russia wants to end the war. That assumption hasn’t been tested.

While European leaders publicly support Trump’s efforts to hold talks with Russia and push for peace in Ukraine, they expect the talks to fail and expose Putin’s true intentions of not willing to end the killings.

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