Russia and Belarus have significantly reduced the scale of the planned Zapad-2025 joint military exercise and relocated its main activities away from NATO-adjacent areas, a decision likely driven by Russian military overstretch due to Moscow’s war in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on 28 May.

Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin announced on social media that the upcoming Zapad-2025 exercise would be relocated from the western border of Belarus to central parts of the country. He claimed this move aimed to demonstrate “readiness for de-escalation, dialogue, and peace.”

However, ISW notes that such a decision would not have been made without Moscow’s approval, suggesting broader strategic motives.

“Belarussian authorities would not have been able to make this decision independently without Russia. Russia and Belarus are attempting to posture themselves as unthreatening, reasonable, and cooperative to the West,” ISW wrote.

Forces unavailable due to Ukraine deployment

ISW points out that previous Zapad exercises involved large formations, including elements of Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army, 20th Combined Arms Army, 6th Combined Arms Army, and approximately 4,000 Airborne (VDV) personnel from the 7th, 76th, 98th, and 106th divisions. Many of these units are now engaged in combat operations in Ukraine.

“Belarusian officials previously claimed that at least 13,000 personnel would participate in the Zapad-2025 exercise, and Russia and Belarus likely had to downsize the joint exercise as most of its forces are fighting in Ukraine,” ISW says.

Russia’s shrinking military bandwidth

The Zapad-2023 exercise was canceled unexpectedly, which ISW says is “very likely due to Russia’s equipment and manpower requirements for” the ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The decision to downsize Zapad-2025 likely reflects similar constraints.