The idea of a ceasefire in the air with Russia seems elusive. Russia almost instantly breaks any agreements, says Serhii Zgurets, the Defense Express head, Espreso reports. 

During the war, Ukraine signed the Minsk agreements aimed at ending the conflict in Donbas. The goal was to halt hostilities and establish peace, but the implementation was violated by Russia during its all-out war.

In 2025, Russia also announced the so-called “Eastern truce,” which lasted only 30 hours in Ukraine. During that brief period, Ukraine recorded at least 2,000 violations and attacks along the front lines.\

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“A ceasefire with the enemy is quite ephemeral… any ceasefire will be broken literally the next day due to their treacherous actions,” Zgurets says. 

He notes that negotiating a halt to strikes with Russia is almost impossible given Russia’s tactics.

Drone and cruise missile strikes continue unabated

In theory, there could be agreements banning strikes using cruise missiles and drones, but in practice, this is unlikely as:

• Russia continues active use of strike systems of various types and ranges,
• Ukrainian attacks are also increasing in number and effectiveness

Dnipro Osint reports that after the facility in Yelabuga was established, the number of attacks using Shaheds began to increase systematically. For example, until July 2024, Russia launched up to 500 drones per month, while by March 2025, this figure had reached nearly 4,200 units.

In July 2025, the UN documented that Russian forces launched ten times more missile strikes and drone attacks than in June 2024. The experts reported 232 civilian deaths and 1,343 injuries, marking the highest monthly casualty toll in three years. 

Also, in just the last two weeks, drone strikes on Russia-occupied Crimea have also been recorded repeatedly. The Russian military is also losing critical logistics routes from Ukrainian assaults: Rostov, Volgograd, and the Donbas railway.

“This is a new chapter in the operation of our drone systems, which have significantly expanded their capabilities and are now blocking the use of the railway as a key logistical resource for Russian defense,” emphasizes Zgurets. 

A ceasefire will not change the war’s dynamics

Even if drone strikes pause temporarily, stockpiling will continue.

“When the ceasefire is broken, these systems will again be used massively,” the expert stresses.

Thus, an aerial ceasefire is unlikely to alter the overall frontline situation. Drones will remain a key weapon and influential factor in the war.

Earlier, the Main Intelligence Directorate reported that in Russia, production of Shaheds and their imitators reached about 170 units per day as of May 2025. By the end of the year, the figure is planned to increase to 190 drones per day.