This winter, the war will become more tangible, colder, and darker for Russia than it has been before, said Yevhen Dykyi, a former company commander of the Aidar Battalion. At the same time, he warned that this does not mean the winter will be easy for Ukraine, Radio NV reports.

However, the balance of power is shifting significantly, primarily in the areas of drones and energy pressure.

According to Dykyi, the Defense Forces have already succeeded in striking some Russian enterprises involved in drone assembly.

The problem is that Russia has many such facilities, most of which carry out final assembly, while key components are supplied from China. Despite this, Ukraine has gradually managed to level the situation.

This winter will be colder and darker specifically for Russia

Dykyi emphasized that Ukraine and Russia are entering the winter period under fundamentally different conditions.

“This winter will be colder and darker in Russia than it will be for us. But that does not mean it will be easy for us,” he stressed.

He added that Russian society may, for the first time, feel the consequences of the war not through television screens but in everyday life, through problems with energy supply and security deep in the rear.

Ukraine is reaching parity and beginning to pull ahead in drones

According to Dykyi, drone warfare has become the key factor driving these changes. This winter, Ukraine is no longer merely catching up but is reaching parity with Russia.

“We are establishing the same kind of combined, comprehensive practice of deployment,” he noted.

Ukrainian drone production has entered a phase of scalability. This is no longer about isolated strikes, but about systematic analytical work, how many hundreds of drones are launched, what percentage is intercepted, and how many targets are hit.

According to him, in terms of both quantity and effectiveness of drones, Ukraine is expected to move this winter from parity to overtaking Russia.

Russians will have to keep warm with love for the leader

Commenting on expectations within Russian society, Dykyi made an ironic remark. 

“They wanted to play this game together, so let’s see how Russian society reacts when the only thing left to keep them warm is love for their leader," he stressed. 

He also noted that Ukraine’s missile component for strikes against Russia is still at an early stage. There are not many missiles, and some are still undergoing testing. By contrast, drones have already become a systemic force capable of influencing the course of the war even in winter.

Russia is experiencing an air defense shortage due to Ukrainian strikes. Ukraine has managed to exhaust Russian protection systems to the point that they can no longer physically cope, says Yevhen Dykyi, former commander of a company in the Aidar Battalion, as per Radio NV. 

At the same time, Dykyi believes Ukraine is facing an extremely difficult winter.

Russia’s first “symmetric” winter

“But this will be the first symmetric winter. And here we will see how they handle it with the same unbreakable resolve that we have been facing for four years,” he says.

He notes that drones systematically operating in Moscow Oblast are no coincidence.

“This is exactly what they do to us. We have managed to exhaust their air defenses to the point that they physically cannot cope,” Dykyi adds.

Kremlin equipment shortage intensifies the problem

While artillery shells were long supplied to Russia by North Korea, covering their deficit, though stocks are now nearly exhausted, surface-to-air missile systems are far more sophisticated.

“North Korean SAMs are not something Russia can rely on, and fall hasn’t even ended yet,” he stresses.

On the night of 23 November, drones attacked a thermal power plant in Shatura, near Moscow. The site is one of Russia’s oldest energy facilities.

Drone strikes spark fire at Moscow Oblast power plant, one of Russia’s oldest energy facilities (VIDEO, MAP)

Three transformers caught fire, and 137 personnel, along with 49 vehicles, were dispatched to the scene.