Vladimir Putin is facing deepening strategic isolation as Israel’s military offensive against Iran threatens to unravel a key alliance underpinning Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, writes Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor at The Telegraph.

In a sharply worded column, Coughlin argues that “Putin’s primary concern… will be the impact that Israel’s continuing assault on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure will have on Tehran’s ability to continue its support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.”

Since last week, Israeli forces have launched targeted strikes against Iranian missile and drone production sites — the same systems that have been regularly supplied to Russia since the summer of 2022. According to Coughlin, the Israeli campaign “appears to have paid dividends,” with a notable drop in attacks originating from Iran.

A strategic blow to Moscow

The deepening Russia-Iran relationship, sealed in January with a 20-year strategic pact, has been critical to sustaining Russia’s campaign in Ukraine. In exchange for military hardware from Tehran, Moscow had promised to boost Iran’s air defenses and air force capabilities. But Coughlin notes that this “has clearly failed to deter Israel from launching its military offensive.”

As Iranian military capacity is degraded, Putin risks losing a crucial source of support. “If the Iranians are unable to provide sufficient weaponry for their own military campaign against Israel,” Coughlin writes, “they will be in no position to support Russia’s offensive in Ukraine.”

Regional influence under threat

The ramifications extend beyond Ukraine. With Syria’s Assad regime reportedly collapsed and now “languishing in exile in Moscow,” Russia’s Middle East strategy appears to be unraveling. Coughlin suggests Putin’s broader effort to project power in the region is now in jeopardy.

The article also highlights the precariousness of Russia’s position within the informal alliance of authoritarian states — Iran, North Korea, China, and Russia — warning that Israel’s attacks could weaken their interconnected military and economic interests.

Coughlin concludes: “Putin’s standing in the region is in danger of precipitous collapse.”