A video Ukrainian forces circulated online recently graphically depicts how little time a vehicle can linger along the front before it attracts the lethal attention of tiny, explosive first-person-view drones. 

A Ukrainian mine-resistant, ambush-protected armored truck—an MRAP—speeds up to the front to drop off fresh troops and supplies and pick up troops whose rotation is over. 

The MRAP idles for literally seconds before the first Russian drone barrels in. The vehicle suffers at least one drone impact as it speeds away. Fortunately for the Ukrainian crew and passengers, the MRAP’s thick armor absorbs the worst of the blast.

That harrowing experience is now ubiquitous. And it’s getting worse as both sides deploy more and better FPVs, including unjammable fiber-optic models and FPVs fitted with artificial intelligence that can steer them toward their targets.

“Bing on the front line is not good, and it’s mostly because of drones,” explained Andrew Perpetua, an independent open-source intelligence analyst in the United States. 

“Artillery and air strikes don’t help, but I would imagine the drones are doing the bulk of the damage right now, especially with regards to doing troop rotations, [delivering] supplies—like, any sort of driving a vehicle,” Perpetua added. “It’s not great. Especially if you’re going along a highway or any sort of major road, you’re getting hit.”

David Kirichenko, a Ukrainian-American war correspondent, has experienced dangerous rotations firsthand during his many trips to the front line since Russia widened its war on Ukraine 41 months ago.  “If you go too slow trying to avoid a mine, you can more easily get hit by a drone or any other Russian weapon system such as artillery,” Kirichenko said.

“Or if you drive too fast” to avoid the drones, he added, “you’d more easily drive over a mine. So it’s just a very dangerous game of kind of randomness of how you might die when you’re driving out.”

The peril doesn’t end when the road does. Braking to drop off and load troops and materiel, a truck might halt for mere seconds—or never fully stop at all. “The vehicle drives up and I mean, it’s: the doors open and it all happens just in a flash. Like all the supplies pop out, you hop out and you just got to run for cover,” Kirichenko said.

He recalled one drop-off where the drones were already overhead and waiting as the vehicle’s doors opened. “It’s just an extremely dangerous mission that I’ve witnessed firsthand.”

Drones as thick as flies

The sheer number of FPVs all along the front—both sides now build millions of the tiny drones every year—means it’s never safe anywhere within the roughly 30-km range of the best FPVs (which might benefit from other drones relaying their radio signals) or the bigger hexacopter bomber drones. 

Ominously, the drone kill zone is expanding as the drones improve—and fast. “At first, it was like, you know, the last 5 km were kind of the issue,” Perpetua said. “And then it became, like, the last 10, the last 15. And now it’s like the last 30. And it’s just going to keep going up.”

“I think over the course of the next few months, probably like six to eight months, we’re going to see it [the drone kill zone] go out to like 50 or 60 km” in either direction from the line of contact, Perpetua predicted.

He claimed Ukraine would benefit more from the extended drone kill zone. “The farther out you go, I think Ukraine will have the advantage because Ukraine has just simply better drones,” Perpetua said. “Russia is mostly relying on their fiber-optic drones” which range just 10 km or so. “I think Ukraine has much better long-range drones that don’t rely on fiber-optics—and that use more advanced connectivity” via wireless radio.

But Ukrainian commanders aren’t assuming better drones and a wider kill zone will definitely favor Ukraine. Kirichenko noted more Ukrainian units deploying more ground robots for more different tanks inside the kill zone—all in an effort to safeguard Ukraine’s most precious resource: its infantry.

“The more that you can get ground robots through those very dangerous missions of getting resupplies, handling your logistics,” Kirichenko said, “the more that you can save your human soldiers.”

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