Slipping past empty Ukrainian trenches northeast of the fortress city of Pokrovsk in recent weeks, Russian infantry quickly marched 15 km to the north. Now the Russians are threatening the village of Dobropillya, which sits astride one of two main supply lines into Pokrovsk.

“The development of the operational situation in the Dobropillya direction causes particular concern,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies warned. But you might know it reading the latest public social media post by Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief.

“Reported on the details of the operational situation at the front,” Syrsky wrote as the first reports of Russian troops in Dobropillya appeared online.

“It’s a tough one,” Syrsky wrote. “But the opponent is held back.”

The opponent is not held back. The Russian 51st Combined Arms Army’s foot- and motorcycle-borne breach of the Ukrainian line northeast of Pokrovsk has deepened fast. And for good reason: Ukraine is desperately short of trained infantry, largely owing to an inefficient and sometimes corrupt mobilization system.

In many sectors of the 1,000-km front line, as few as eight Ukrainian soldiers defend a 900-m length of trenches, according to the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team. Normally, at least 200 troops would defend that much of the front. It’s no wonder the Russians were able to simply walk past empty trenches in Donetsk Oblast.

At least one former officer is worried Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky doesn’t appreciate the scale of the problem—perhaps because he’s getting bad information. “I sincerely don’t know what exactly is being reported to you,” Bohdan Krotevych, who recently quit as the chief of staff of the Azov Brigade, wrote on social media, “but I’m informing you: on the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka line, without exaggeration, it’s complete chaos.”

Growing chaos

“And this chaos has been growing for a long time, worsening with each passing day,” Krotevych added. “The command structures currently being appointed (or already appointed) to ‘fix the unfixable’ will most likely be blamed for the chaos that’s already unfolding.”

“The systemic problem began with the depletion of reserves,” Krotevych claimed. Ukrainian brigades may have suffered thousands of casualties capturing a small swathe of Russia’s Kursk Oblast starting a year ago—and may have suffered hundred more while retreating form Kursk after their supply lines were severed by Russian drones seven months later in February.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s antiquated mobilization system has consistently failed to generate enough new troops. Today, the Ukrainian military’s roughly 130 combat brigades may be short around 100,000 infantry, according to analyst Andrew Perpetua.

Brigades that should have thousands of troops instead have hundreds. “The widespread fragmentation of units across the entire front line, reports of ‘captured villages’ being touted as victories amidst failures of entire sectors, the allocation of mobilization resources to ‘cronies’ and the complete lack of strategic or even operational vision” have combined to undermine Ukraine’s defenses, Krotevych wrote.

But not according to Syrsky. “Our combat units will become stronger by receiving additional funding from the state budget,” the commander-in-chief wrote.

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Ukraine’s Leopard tanks rush to Pokrovsk—100,000 Russians wait to spring the trap

Russian forces are pushing near Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, but it is premature to call these gains an operational-level breakthrough, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The think tank assesses that Moscow’s troops are likely seeking to turn current tactical advances into a broader push in the coming days.

Russian advances southeast of Dobropillia

ISW reported on 11 August that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating near Dobropillia, northwest of Pokrovsk. A Ukrainian source said such groups are active in the area. NASA FIRMS satellite data indicated heat anomalies west of Nove Shakhove, in Novyi Donbas, Bilytske, and Rodynske — suggesting artillery fire in these areas.

The think tank assessed that Russian forces likely seized several settlements southeast of Dobropillya, including Razine, Sukhetske, Fedorivka, Zatyshok, Boikivka, Novotoretske, and Zapovidne, as well as Mayak and Pankivka east of Dobropillia. Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed its troops took Fedorivka, northeast of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported forward Russian assault units and infiltration groups operating near Kucheriv Yar, Nove Shakhove, and Bilytske.

Contested zones and advancing lines

Russian military bloggers claimed Moscow’s forces seized Dorozhnie, advanced north of Zapovidne, south of Bilytske, south of Dorozhnie, west of Shakhove, and southeast of Vilne toward Nove Shakhove. Other claimed gains included areas south of Kucheriv Yar and on the outskirts of Zolotyi Kolodyaz.

One milblogger said Russian forces control about half of Volodymyrivka, south of Shakhove, while Ukrainian troops hold northern Pankivka. The same source claimed Russian troops have interdicted a 2.5-kilometer section of the T-0515 Pokrovsk–Dobropillya highway. Another milblogger described Kucheriv Yar and Zolotyi Kolodyaz as contested “gray zones,” with Russian reconnaissance-in-force missions underway.

ISW sees potential for bigger gains

ISW stressed it is too early to declare these moves an operational-level breakthrough. However, the think tank noted Russian forces may attempt to mature these tactical penetrations into a larger offensive in the coming days, similar to the approach used in mid-April 2024 that led to the seizure of operationally significant territory northwest of Avdiivka.

The institute said the next several days will be critical for Ukraine’s ability to prevent accelerated Russian gains north and northwest of Pokrovsk.