If NATO fails to boost its deterrent capabilities, Russia may invade Estonia within 5-7 years, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in a 5 July 2025 interview with The New York Times. The NATO chief warned that despite no immediate danger, the Kremlin might strike in the future unless the alliance accelerates defense investment and coordination.

Russia’s military buildup fuels concern

In the NYT interview, Rutte cited Russia’s rapid rearmament as a central concern, noting that “Russia is reconstituting itself at a pace and a speed which is unparalleled in recent history.” According to him, Moscow now produces three times more ammunition in three months than all of NATO does in a year. He said this buildup, supported by cooperation with North Korea, Iran, and China, threatens not only Ukraine but also broader European security.

Baltic states in focus after Estonia drill

His comments followed a New Yorker article describing NATO training exercises in Estonia, which revealed that Estonian forces lacked critical defense capabilities such as air power and naval strength. Rutte acknowledged the findings but insisted Estonia would not face an invasion today because “our reaction will be devastating.” However, he warned that without significant increases in defense investment, that calculus might change within years.

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Washington remains committed to NATO Article 5, Rutte believes

Rutte emphasized that the United States would fully support Estonia if attacked. “One hundred percent,” he said, adding that his discussions with the Trump administration confirmed total US commitment to NATO and Article 5. He dismissed the notion that America is retreating from Europe, instead arguing that Washington expects Europeans to shoulder more of the burden while shifting focus toward the Indo-Pacific.

Deterrence and readiness depend on industry and manpower

Rutte highlighted a growing concern about Europe’s defense industry and personnel shortages. “We simply lack the defense industrial base to produce the weapons we need,” he said, stressing that funding must translate into operational capability. He refrained from prescribing conscription but suggested higher salaries and national decisions could address the manpower gap.

Although questions remain about democratic cohesion within NATO, Rutte avoided commenting on the internal politics of member states like Türkiye, the US under Trump, or pro-Russian Hungary. Instead, he insisted that NATO remains “stronger and more united than ever in recent history.”

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Looking ahead: Investment or vulnerability

Rutte warned that if NATO fails to follow through on its commitments, countries like Estonia could face existential threats in the near future.

“If we don’t [invest], we’ll have to learn Russian,” he said.

For now, he remains confident that NATO’s deterrence, especially with US backing, is strong—but the clock is ticking.

Russia is already at Estonia’s gates. Tallinn may become the next target for Russia’s aggressive war because the Russians have several convenient pretexts for it, The Economist reports. 

For several years, Russia has been conducting a covert campaign of intimidation and destabilization against Estonia, using cyberattacks, undercover agents, sabotage, and legions of disinformation bots on social media.

NATO recognizes these risks and has been increasing its military presence in the region: currently, over 2,000 troops from allied countries are stationed in Estonia.

However, amid the reduction of American forces in Europe, Estonia could become the place where Russia first attempts to test the reliability of NATO’s Article 5 on collective defense. 

Between the 1950s and 1980s, the Kremlin resettled hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians to Estonia, and today they make up one-fifth of the country’s 1.4 million population. The largest number of them are living in the city of Narva, located right on the border with Russia. Nearly the entire population there is descended from Russian settlers.

More than 30 years later, Russians have shifted from a politically dominant group to a lower-class minority, though many in Narva still feel attached to the Soviet version of history.

Since the war in Ukraine began, Russian destabilizing efforts have intensified throughout Estonia. Last year, a sociology professor who seemed liberal was exposed as a Russian agent. In 2023, vandals damaged the cars of the Minister of Internal Affairs and the editor of a Russian-language news website.

At the same time, Russian attempts to recruit Russian speakers for minor sabotage through social media have found little support.

Russia recruits elderly in covert sabotage campaign across Ukraine and Europe

The war in Ukraine has united Estonians but divided the Russians living there. Some feel sympathy for their homeland, where many have relatives; some resent Estonian nationalism. Some are Putin supporters or simply wish for a brotherly alliance like in the old days. Others, especially younger people, warmly welcome Ukrainian refugees into their schools and communities.

Since 2022, the Estonian government has taken steps to isolate Estonia from Russia. It stopped issuing visas to Russian citizens, restricted Russian business activities, banned Russian TV channels from cable packages, and removed Soviet-era monuments. This year, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania disconnected their electricity grids from Russia.

Most of the well-known and most controversial Estonian residents holding Russian passports, who previously could vote in municipal elections, will no longer be able to do so after this year’s elections.