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First the pumps, then the harvest, now the commute—Russia’s fuel shortage keeps finding new victims

Par :Yuri Zoria

first pumps harvest now commute—russia's fuel shortage keeps finding new victims · post tram vladivostok russia 2024 vladivostok1ru lines ukraine news ukrainian reports

Russia's fuel crisis has reached the bus stop, with carriers in at least 25 regions raising public transport fares, The Moscow Times reported. Ten more regions have cut routes or reshuffled schedules as Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries starve the market of gasoline and diesel. The squeeze is hitting small carriers on suburban routes hardest.

Ukraine treats the Russian refining industry bankrolling the invasion as a legitimate target, and the resulting shortage has already spread from gas-station lines to Russia's harvest fields. Official fuel-sale restrictions cover more than 40 regions, while de facto limits and bans operate in nearly every Russian region and in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

Intercity fares outrun inflation by 30 points

Russian investigative outlet Vazhnye Istorii counted the fare hikes and route cuts from media reports across 35 regions. Fuel shortages have sent diesel and gasoline prices sharply higher, and spare parts have grown more expensive alongside, driving up carriers' costs.

Rosstat data show an average city trip rose 12% over the year, from 40.58 to 45.58 rubles ($0.58). An intercity bus ride climbed 20%, from 204.56 to 243.89 rubles ($3.11). Since the start of the full-scale invasion, intercity travel has grown 81% more expensive and city transport 52%, against cumulative inflation of about 50%.
a cow grazes by an idle sayanneft gas station in russia amid nationwide fuel crisis
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Across Siberia, the hikes are concrete

In Irkutsk, Siberia, the municipal carrier Irkutskavtotrans raised fares 20% from 1 July, from 37 to 45 rubles ($0.57), while private operators added almost a quarter. The 50-km ride between Irkutsk and Angarsk jumped more than 30%. 

In Altai Krai, the private company Transmagistral lifted its Barnaul–Novoaltaisk fare from 85 to 90 rubles ($1.15). At the current rate, the gasoline prices reached $1.15 a liter, or about $4.35 a gallon, and diesel at $1.17 a liter, roughly $4.45 a gallon.

In Buryatia, rides to Ulan-Ude from remote villages 250–350 km away rose more than 10%. A trip from the village of Isingi now costs 1,700 rubles ($22) instead of 1,500 ($19). 

Smoke billowing from Mikhailovskoye oil depot in Russia's Stavropol Krai following an overnight Ukrainian drone attack on 19 July. Photo: Exilenova+
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Half of Russia's refining sits idle

The Moscow Times noted that the crisis now covers practically the whole country. Sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out about 40% of Russia's refining capacity. In the second week of July, gasoline output fell 35% to 75,000–80,000 tons a day, against summer demand of 115,000–120,000 tons.

EA Analytics put July's crude processing at 3.91 million barrels a day, the lowest since 2005. Energy Intelligence gives an even lower estimate of 3.58 million barrels, potentially the weakest figure since 2002, with about half of Russia's refining capacity standing idle. 

With repair crews losing the race against strikes like the one that halted the Syzran refinery, Russia is reduced to importing gasoline refined from its own crude — and the pass-through to fares, freight, and food prices has room to widen.
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