Ukraine has nearly run out of the one weapon that reliably stops Russia's ballistic missiles, and no replacement is close, according to The Economist. Now it is betting on cheaper homemade interceptors—and on hitting Russian missiles before they launch.

Russia has spent this year rebuilding its arsenal around the weapons Ukraine can least often intercept and aiming them at cities and the power grid, so the race to field cheap defenses will help decide how many people survive another winter of strikes.

Ukraine's homemade bet

Kyiv is building its own answer. The pan-European Freyja project, led by Ukrainian firm Fire Point with 12 European defense companies, aims for an interceptor near $700,000. That is a fraction of a $7 million export Patriot round. The second track is "left-of-launch": hitting the factories and launchers before missiles fly. In March, Ukraine struck a Bryansk plant making Iskander components. It also hopes to add its own Sapsan and FP-series missiles within months, though catching Russia's mobile launchers is a tall order.

Faster drones, less warning

Russia sends waves of jet-powered Geran-4 and -5 drones to swamp Ukrainian radar, then fires ballistic missiles behind them. The drones fly at up to 600 kph, and 3,000 leave Russian factories each month. Over five days to 1 September, Russia hit Kyiv almost hourly. The barrage paused on 6 September for the visit of American envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who had just met Putin in Moscow. The day after they left, Russia killed three civilians. Ukraine's F-16s, meanwhile, are running low on the American air-to-air missiles they need against cruise missiles.

The shield is empty

Ballistic missiles are the class of Russian weapon Ukraine's air defenses stop least often, which is why Brussels recently cleared Ukraine to spend EU loan money on American interceptors for the winter, and why a cheaper homemade fix carries so much weight.

Of 57 ballistic missiles fired in the first eight days of August, Ukraine intercepted only one. Kyiv has almost nothing left of the PAC-3, the one interceptor that reliably downs them. Russia now turns out about 100 of its deadliest missiles a month, 60 of them Iskander-Ms. Resupply looks unlikely, because US President Donald Trump's war on Iran drained America's own Patriot stocks, and no ally wants to give up interceptors it cannot replace.