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ISW: Russia’s playbook for invading Ukraine now aimed at Finland — same lies, same threats, new target

Par :Yuri Zoria

isw russia’s playbook invading ukraine now aimed finland — same lies threats new target russian deputy chairman security council dmitry medvedev 630_360_1746107982-569 kremlin begins repeating old propaganda lines time against

In its 8 September assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned that Russian officials are now applying the same disinformation tactics used to justify the invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022—this time targeting Finland.

Russian messaging toward Finland—especially claims of genocidal intent, NATO aggression, and revanchist goals—strongly resembles the rhetoric used in the lead-up to full-scale war in Ukraine. ISW concluded that these patterns are not accidental, but part of a calculated strategy to justify potential acts of aggression against NATO countries.

Medvedev threatens Finland with collapse, echoes invasion rhetoric

Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev issued direct threats against Finland in a 8 September opinion piece published by Kremlin newswire TASS. He claimed that Finland should not “forget” that conflict with Russia “could lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood forever.” Medvedev accused Finnish authorities of having historic ties to Nazi Germany, and alleged they aimed to expand into parts of modern-day Russia, including Eastern Karelia, Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), and the Kola Peninsula.

Medvedev claimed that Finland’s government is “Russophobic” and driven by greed, “installed in Finnish minds back in the days of Hitler.” He also alleged that Finnish authorities committed genocide against Slavs and tried to erase the historical and cultural identity of ethnic Russians. According to Medvedev, Finland joined NATO under a false pretense of defense but is actually preparing for war against Russia.

ISW noted that Medvedev’s claims closely mirror the Kremlin’s well-documented narratives used to justify its prior invasions of Ukraine. In particular, ISW emphasized the repetition of false accusations of Nazism, ethnic cleansing, and cultural erasure—claims that laid the groundwork for aggression in both 2014 and 2022.

ISW: Kremlin setting conditions for future aggression

According to ISW, the propaganda targeting Finland follows a familiar pattern. The think tank noted that Russian officials are once again invoking the so-called “root causes” of conflict—a phrase frequently used to support Russia’s aggressive policies toward Ukraine. Medvedev claimed these root causes date back to World War II, aligning with Kremlin arguments that NATO’s expansion and alleged anti-Russian discrimination justify military responses.

ISW highlighted that Kremlin narratives like these are not isolated. On 13 March, Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev accused Finland of attempting to “exterminate” the Slavic population and claimed the West is turning Finland into a launchpad for aggression. In December 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed NATO “dragged” Finland into the alliance and warned that “there will be problems” with Finland.

The ISW report stated that Russian information operations increasingly focus on Finland’s historical ties to Russia, its alleged alliance with Nazi Germany, and intentions to reclaim lost territories. The think tank warned that these narratives aim to prepare domestic and international audiences for potential future Russian aggression.

ISW assessed that the Kremlin is now applying the same disinformation playbook to NATO members, such as Finland and the Baltic States. The think tank emphasized that this shift is part of a broader effort to normalize the idea of conflict with NATO and lay the informational groundwork for escalation.

 

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