The Institute for the Study of War reported on 30 August that the Kremlin appears to have launched a coordinated informational effort posturing military strength on the battlefield in order to shape Western thinking and falsely portray a Russian victory as “inevitable.”

The Kremlin’s presentation of likely inflated territorial gain statistics without critical context for the losses for those gains is likely an attempt to manipulate perceptions about Russia’s military performance and buttress a longstanding Kremlin narrative that Russia’s victory on the battlefield is inevitable. It is not.

Russian generals inflate battlefield numbers

Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed on 30 August that Russian forces had seized 3,500 square kilometers and 149 settlements since March 2025. ISW assessed the real figure is about 2,346 square kilometers and 130 settlements. The Kremlin claims include exaggerated control in Sumy Oblast, Kupiansk, Lyman, and other directions.

Defense Minister Andrei Belousov claimed Russia was gaining 600–700 square kilometers per month. ISW calculated only 440–500 per month.

Real losses contradict Russian narrative

Russian non-Kremlin-aligned reported on 29 August that RND inheritance data suggests at least 93,000 Russian soldiers died in 2024, and 56,000 more since the start of 2025. By mid-2025, inheritance cases reached 2,000 per week. Most new missing persons rulings involved men.

ISW says these losses are unsustainable. Russia’s advance remains slow. It uses light vehicles and infiltration tactics, but cannot consolidate gains. The Kremlin’s statistics paint an incomplete picture of its battlefield performance.