Russia made more territorial gains in Ukraine in May 2025 than in nearly any month since the end of 2022, but the Kremlin’s aim is not only battlefield progress but also to shape perceptions in Western capitals, making a Russian victory appear inevitable and discouraging future support for Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported.
This comes as Russia has escalated is ground and air attacks, while US President Donald Trump continues to stall new sanctions drafted by Congress. For months, Trump has urged Kyiv and Moscow to begin peace talks, purportedly to end the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. However, Russia has consistently reaffirmed its original invasion objectives—effectively demanding Ukraine’s capitulation—rendering Trump’s efforts ineffective.
Kremlin intensifies multi-front assaults to create momentum
WSJ reports that the Russian offensive has expanded across several fronts, with the Kremlin probing for weaknesses while forcing Ukraine to defend along the entire 1,000 km front line. Moscow seeks to exploit its manpower advantage and the onset of summer foliage, which hampers Ukrainian drone visibility.
George Barros, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War, told WSJ:
“The center of gravity for this war is not terrain—the place where it’s being decisively waged is the perception space in Western capitals.” He added, referring to the Russian reasoning behind the strategy: “If the map is moving, they’re able to say, ‘We’re making progress. Ukraine is screwed. How many more billions are you going to spend?’”
Kostyantynivka becomes key focus in eastern Ukraine
In Donetsk Oblast, Russia has shifted troops toward Kostiantynivka from Pokrovsk, surrounding the city on three sides. The city, a vital logistics hub, is under increased attack. A senior Ukrainian lieutenant fighting in the area told WSJ: “The city is rapidly transforming into a front line.” He also warned of frequent, precise Russian drone strikes enabled by fiber-optic drones capable of traveling up to 40 km — double their range a year ago.
Northern front sees renewed Russian push toward Sumy
In Ukraine’s north, Russian troops have entered Sumy Oblast after amassing over 50,000 soldiers. According to WSJ, one Ukrainian sergeant in the region said the Russians outnumber local troops roughly two-to-one. Russian forces appear to be attempting to seize Yunakivka and ultimately reach the regional capital of Sumy, located less than 30 km from the border.
Even where Russian forces have not advanced, assaults continue to fix Ukrainian forces in place. A Ukrainian captain in the Pokrovsk area told WSJ that Russian attacks happen at all hours:
“They want to reach the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast—it’s important to them symbolically.”
Zaporizhzhia buildup raises concerns of wider offensive
Ukrainian officials and sources familiar with the matter told WSJ that Russia is also increasing its troop presence in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian special forces have been sent there to reinforce defenses.
A senior lieutenant near Kostiantynivka summarized the toll of the ongoing campaign:
“We anticipate worsening conditions across all directions this summer. Personnel are exhausted. There are not enough rotations. Everyone is operating at the edge of their limits.”
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Russian forces are heavily bombarding Ukraine’s second defensive line in Donbas northeast of the city of Pokrovsk with precision airstrikes, with OSINT analyst Clément Molin reporting nearly 1,000 recent hits in a narrow section of the frontline.
Amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, Russian airstrikes on the eastern front are increasing monthly. Militarnyi notes that in February, Russian forces used approximately 3,370 guided aerial bombs. By March, that number had reached 4,800, and in April, over 5,000 were deployed. Additionally, the range of these bombs is increasing due to upgraded guidance and correction modules — with some reportedly now reaching distances up to 95 kilometers.
Targeted airstrike surge along Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka axis
Russian Aerospace Forces are actively conducting intense aerial preparation against Ukrainian positions between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast.
According to OSINT analyst Clément Molin, satellite imagery shows around 950 airstrikes across fields and forest strips near the Ukrainian defense line. These strikes began around 25 May, following recent Russian territorial gains in the area.
Thos airstrikes are very recent, they started around may 25, less than 20 days ago after russian troops made gains on the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka defensive line.
“I located nearly 1 000 airstrike[s] on a small area of the frontline between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. This is simply massive.”
He added that the attacks are focused on treeline areas in response to a shift in Ukrainian tactics that favors smaller, concealed positions. The bombardment is especially intense on the western edge of the Pokrovsk-Druzhkivka-Kostiantynivka triangle.
Situation in the areas of Pokrovsk, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast as of 13 June 2025. Map: Deep State Map.
Molin stated that Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk appear stronger, requiring more force to neutralize. He suggested a possible attempt by Russian forces to encircle Pokrovsk from the eastern flank:
“Russia could reactivate the western Pokrovsk front while launching assault on the eastern side.”
He noted that such activity could support an objective to capture Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka before 2026.
Russia could reactivate the western Pokrovsk front while launching assault on the eastern side.
-> This could help them reaching the objective of capture of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka before 2026. pic.twitter.com/TL4QOTlmca
This is not the first time such intense airstrike concentrations have been recorded. Molin referenced previous instances in Robotyne in 2023 and Kursk in 2024. He also observed similar patterns in Sumy Oblast, where forest zones north of the city are being targeted as Ukrainian forces resist Russian advances.
Frontline developments and Ukrainian response
Militarnyi, citing the Ukrainian Army General Staff, reports that the situation in the Pokrovsk axis remains “difficult.” On 11 June alone, Ukrainian defenders reportedly repelled 62 separate Russian assault actions. These clashes occurred near multiple settlements, including Malynivka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novosergiivka, Orikhove, Andriivka, and toward Poltavka, Oleksiivka, and Muravka.
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Russian forces have captured the village of Kostiantynivka in northern Sumy Oblast — not to be confused with the strategic town of the same name in Donetsk Oblast — and are intensifying multi-axis assaults toward Sumy City, according to Ukrainian and Western sources.
Russian forces have launched aggressive ground operations in northeastrn Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast in late May trying to establish a so-called “buffer zone” to prevent further Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. Prior Ukrainian offensives penetrated into the southern part of adjacent Kursk Oblast, though Russian forces have largely regained control over the previously captured areas.
Expanding the northern frontline
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on 2 June, Russian troops are attempting to widen the northern Sumy Oblast frontline via three axes north and northeast of Sumy City. Geolocated footage confirmed recent Russian movements near Andriivka and Yablunivka. Russian milbloggers claimed that Oleksiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Kindrativka had been seized, with troops pushing into northern Andriivka, west of Yablunivka, and toward Kostyantynivka.
Elements of Russia’s 18th Motorized Rifle Division and 177th Naval Infantry Regiment are reportedly operating in the area, alongside airborne regiments from the 76th VDV Division. Military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that the 752nd Regiment and 200th Brigade were recently redeployed from Lyman and Chasiv Yar to bolster forces in Sumy Oblast.
ISW notes that Moscow aims to approach the Khotin-Khrapivshchyna line, roughly 12–15 km from Sumy, placing the city within tube artillery range. The reported use of drones and artillery strikes is likely part of preparations for a potential offensive on Sumy City. However, ISW assesses that Russian forces are unlikely to capture the city in the near term.
Citing analysts of the Ukrainian group Deep State, monitoring the frontline situation, Suspilne reported that Russian forces occupied Volodymyrivka and Kostiantynivka and made advances in Oleksiivka, with portions still in a grey zone. Ukrainian Border Guard Service spokesman Andrii Demchenko identified Yunakivka and Khotin as key targets. He warned that if Russian forces manage to move artillery closer, threats to Sumy will intensify.
Military expert Pavlo Narozhny told Suspilne that the push toward Yunakivka aims to cut off Ukrainian supply lines from the Sumy-Yunakivka-Sudzha highway, which supports troops on the border and in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Narozhny said Yunakivka offers intact infrastructure suitable for Russian consolidation and future advances.
Situation is Sumy Oblast as of 3 June 2025: the Russian forces are 26 km away from Sumy city. Map: Deep State.
Ukrainian positions under pressure from Russian “meat-wave assaults”
Fighting continues near Bilovody and Loknya, with attempted incursions into Yablunivka. Deep State co-founder Ruslan Mykula told Suspilne Russian forces were repelled in some villages but remain focused on isolating Yunakivka from the west.
Narozhny also described earlier attempts to sever logistics using drones near Novenke and claimed Russian forces now push through small villages like Volodymyrivka. He emphasized that their main objective remains Yunakivka, a staging ground for further operations toward Sumy.
A combat medic anonymously told Suspilne that enemy drone and equipment superiority complicates evacuations and supply runs. A frontline sergeant described Russia’s tactic as “meat assaults,” sending successive small units using motorcycles and ATVs. Survivors regroup and continue advancing through tree lines and villages.
Threat level and troop presence
Narozhny estimated around 60,000 Russian troops are now deployed along the border, posing a significant but not yet critical threat. He said Ukraine must maintain 20,000–30,000 troops in the area due to the length of the frontline.
Former intelligence chief Mykola Malomuzh stated that the current Russian grouping had earlier pushed Ukrainians from Kursk Oblast and now aims to secure new positions for potential strikes on Sumy. He said the “buffer zone” narrative masks broader offensive ambitions. Ukrainian defenses are reportedly holding due to well-fortified positions developed over time.
Narozhny also pointed to the forest between Yunakivka and Sumy as a major obstacle. He compared it to the Serebryanskyi forest in Luhansk Oblast, where Russian troops remain stalled after two years.
As of 2 June, Russian troops controlled around 125 square kilometers of northern Sumy Oblast, with another 70 km² in the grey zone, according to Deep State. Villages under Russian control also include Novenke, Basivka, Veselivka, and Zhuravka.
Overnight on 3 June, DeepState reported that Russian forces had captured Kostiantynivka in Sumy Oblast. The status of Kindrativka, Vodolaha, and Oleksiivka remains under clarification. DeepState noted that “the situation continues to deteriorate due to constant enemy pressure and large infantry numbers,” adding that “after targeting enemy concentrations, new waves rush in so fast that our forces struggle to destroy them in time.”
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Ukraine is running out of choices. Russia has 50,000 troops threatening to besiege Sumy, a city with a pre-war population of 250,000 just 30 kilometers from the border. Ukraine’s response: gamble its rarest aircraft on missions they might not survive.
The Ukrainian air force is sortieing its small fleet of ex-European F-16s to drop American-made glide bombs on Russian regiments rolling into Sumy Oblast.
Two months after an elite Russian drone group cut the supply lines feeding the Ukrainian force clinging to a 600-square-km salient around the town of Sudzha in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast—ultimately driving the Ukrainians from Kursk after a bitter, six-month battle—the Russians are pressing their advantage on the northern front of their 39-month wider war on Ukraine.
Map of Russia’s incursion into Sumy Oblast
In all, there are no fewer than 50,000 Russian troops in Kursk. The Ukrainian brigades holding the line in Sumy, just across the border from Kursk, have many fewer troops—especially now that at least one formation, the elite 82nd Air Assault Brigade, has rushed south to Donetsk Oblast to block a Russian attack on the town of Kostiantynivka, a critical strongpoint in Ukrainian defenses in the east.
The arrival of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade and other reinforcements in the east has helped to slow the Russian advance along the stretch of front line between Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar—can could save Kramatorsk and other key cities comprising the so-called “fortress belt” threading through Donetsk toward the border in the north.
But it’s already come at the cost of some border villages in Sumy. And if the Ukrainians aren’t careful, they could lose the villages of Yunakivka and Vodolahy. Worse, the city of Sumy itself, 30 km from the border, could come under siege.
“On the Sumy direction, the enemy offensive is intensifying,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies warned. “The Kursk group of forces is concentrating reserves in the border zone, attempting to break through between Yunakivka and Vodolahy.”
Ukrainian ground forces are stretched thin defending against separate Russian offensives in the north and east, so Ukrainian air power is filling the gaps.
The Ukrainian air force has received just a few dozen of the 85 American-built F-16 fighters that a Danish-Dutch-Norwegian consortium has pledged from European surplus stocks. Three of the single-engine, supersonic fighters have been lost since they first flew into action in August.
82nd Air Assault Brigade troopers. Ukrainian defense ministry photo
NATO’s “military Wi-Fi” arrives
The F-16s are precious assets, but the dire situation in Sumy warrants risking them. The pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team noted F-16s lobbing US-supplied Small Diameter Bombs—114-kg precision glide bombs—at Russian forces in and around Kursk.
“The application of F-16s in this role came as somewhat of a surprise,” CIT observed, “as they were initially utilized as ‘flying air defense’ deep within Ukrainian territory and only began appearing near the front line in the Sumy region in late winter 2025, accompanying Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter aircraft that launched guided aerial bombs.”
“It is possible that the [Ukrainian air force] has begun using their F-16s closer to the front line due to the recent arrival of new aircraft or due to an acute need to increase firepower,” CIT proposed.
The F-16s are being upgraded for more dangerous missions. Kateryna Chernohorenko, the Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine for Digital Development, Digital Transformation and Digitalization, announced that the F-16s—as well as Ukraine’s French-supplied Mirage 2000 jets—will get software allowing them to plug into the Link-16 radio network.
Link-16, which Chernohorenko described as “NATO’s military Wi-Fi,” connects command posts, radars, surface-to-air missile batteries, and warplanes in a single network. It can share data so that each HQ, missile battery, and plane sees what the others see.
The Link-16 upgrade may not save all the Ukrainian F-16s as they fly into the danger zone to bomb the Russian troops threatening Sumy. But the Ukrainian command is running out of options as it struggles to hold back Russia’s dual offensives.
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Overnight on 29 May 2025, Russia launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine, killing six and injuring 33 civilians and damaging homes, while Ukrainian defenses intercepted just 56 out of 90 incoming drones, according to Ukraine’s Air Force and regional authorities.
This comes as US President Donald Trump pushes for talks between Kyiv and Moscow, allegedly to end the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. While Trump has not approved any new sanctions against Russia since taking office in January, Russia continues its deliberate daily air attacks on residential areas and civilian infrastructure, particularly targeting energy infrastructure and apartment buildings, aiming to disrupt civilian life.
90 drones launched from Russia, 56 intercepted
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 90 long-range explosive drones — including Shahed UAVs and decoys — from Millerovo, Oryol, and Kursk starting at 23:20 on 28 May. Air defense units, electronic warfare teams, and mobile fire groups reportedly neutralized 56 drones, of which 10 were shot down and 46 suppressed electronically.
“A distinctive feature of the airstrike was the targeting of sites in frontline territories,” the Air Force noted, highlighting a shift from Russia’s typical focus on rear cities and infrastructure.
In recent months, Russia has adjusted its drone tactics, exploiting the ongoing depletion of Ukrainian air defense munitions — causing Ukraine’s drone interception rate to fall from near-total success to significantly lower levels.
Impacts were confirmed in nine locations across Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk oblasts.
Local authorities also reported bomb and artillery strikes, as well as short-range drone attacks.
Sumy Oblast: Civilian casualties and widespread strikes
Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported that a man was killed and a woman seriously injured in Bilopillia from a drone strike last night.
The authorities reported more civilian casualties over the past 24 hours. In Esman community, a 74-year-old woman died following a Russian guided bomb attack. Earlier injuries were also reported in Khotin (woman born in 1950) and Berezivka (man born in 1991).
Authorities confirmed 140 Russian strikes across 39 settlements in 14 communities, with the heaviest shelling in Sumy and Shostka districts.
Donetsk Oblast: Kostiantynivka hit twice, one killed; another death and 13 injuries yesterday
At 04:20 on 29 May, a Russian FPV drone strike on Kostiantynivka killed one person and damaged a detached house, the city mayor reported. Another FPV drone hit the same city an hour later, damaging another residence.
On 28 May, Russian attacks killed one civilian in Donetsk’s Rivne and injured 13 others across Donetsk Oblast, according to the regional authorities.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Homes destroyed in aerial bombings, civilians searched under the rubble
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Ivan Fedorov reported that five Russian guided aerial bombs hit Verkhnia Tersa early on 29 May, destroying several homes. Authorities stated that civilians were trapped under debris, though further details were pending.
Over the preceding day, Russian forces conducted 397 strikes on 10 settlements. A 49-year-old man was wounded in a separate attack in Polohy District yesterday
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Three civilians injured in attacks
According to Governor Serhii Lysak, artillery and drone strikes on Nikopol district injured a 61-year-old man and damaged several homes and solar panels. In Novopavlivka, two civilians were injured by guided bombs; one house was destroyed and two more damaged.
Kherson Oblast: Two killed, multiple injured in drone attacks
Kherson Oblast Military Administration confirmedtwo civilian men were killed in Berislav when a Russian drone dropped explosives on them.
A Russian morning strike injured a 1931-born man in Kherson’s Dnipro Raion with blast trauma. A 57-year-old man in Bilozerka and a 38-year-old man in Kherson city were also hospitalized from earlier drone attacks.
Additionally, authorities reported a total of 10 injuries across the oblast in the last 24 hours.
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An awful clash is imminent along the villages and fields south of Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. An industrial town with a pre-war population of 67,000, Kostiantynivka is the last major settlement between the front line and Kramatorsk, a city of 147,000 buttressing the last line of Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk.
Capturing Donetsk is one of Russia’s top objectives in its 39-month wider war on Ukraine. Holding Donetsk is one of Ukraine’s top objectives. Both sides are surging forces into the area around Kostiantynivka. The fighting is escalating. Casualties are piling up. And the worst is yet to come.
“The occupiers are trying to advance toward Kostiantynivka,” the Ukrainian army’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade reported last week. In fact, they’ve been trying for weeks now. An assault by around 150 Russian motorcycle troops on the village of Yelyzavetivka in mid-April may have signaled the beginning of the Russian offensive.
The 93rd Mechanized Brigade is one of no fewer than a dozen Ukrainian brigades—each with thousands of troops, thousands of drones, and hundreds of armored vehicles and howitzers—that have deployed battalions around the town.
Map of Kostiantynivka and Chasiv Yar by Euromaidan Press
Some of the Ukrainian ground forces’ best units are in the area. Not just the battle-hardened 93rd Mechanized Brigade, but also the aggressive 5th Assault Brigade and the 5th Heavy Mechanized Brigade, a reorganized tank brigade with up-armored Leopard 1A5 tanks.
They’re arrayed along a 30-kilometer arc—one end anchored to the southwest in the direction of Pokrovsk, the middle running through the outskirts of Toretsk and the opposite end anchored outside Chasiv Yar, to the northeast. “In the north, Russian forces are attempting to break through from the direction of Chasiv Yar,” the 93rd Mechanized Brigade noted, “while in the south they are attacking from the Pokrovsk highway.”
Ukrainian forces and earthworks are thinnest to the southwest. Probing for gaps in the line last week, the Russians advanced swiftly in this area, carving out a 15-kilometer-deep salient beginning around Yelyzavetivka and pointing toward Kostiantynivka, another 15 kilometers to the northeast.
Kostiantynivka is now within shooting distance of Russia’s short-range attack drones and smaller artillery pieces.
Razor wire near Kostiantynivka. 93rd Mechanized Brigade photo
Russians frustrated after failure to capture Chasiv Yar
Frustrated by their failure to fully capture Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk despite a year of costly effort, the Russians sense an opportunity in Kostiantynivka—and aren’t about to waste it for a want of resources.
A huge Russian force is gathering south of the town. No fewer than three Russian field armies—the 8th, 41st, and 51st Combined Arms Armies—are nearby. The 8th CAA is apparently taking the lead.
The attacking Russian vehicles are sporting asbestos
Russia’s asbestos tank armor didn’t work. Ukraine’s drones did.
There are more than 600,000 Russian troops in Ukraine; it’s possible one out of 10 is marching on Kostiantynivka. They’re paying in blood for every yard they gain. That initial Russian motorcycle assault on Yelyzavetivka was typical. Almost all the Russians involved in that assault were killed or wounded, but more Russians followed behind them.
Kostiantynivka is not lost. Yes, the Russians are extending a salient toward Kostiantynivka from the southwest. But the salient “is only one of the three necessary areas where Russian forces must make further advances in order to seriously threaten Kostiantynivka,” observed the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C.
The other two areas are Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. And “Russian forces have struggled to break out” of those settlements, ISW noted. That “has likely complicated Russia’s plans for an offensive against Kostiantynivka and the wider Ukrainian fortress belt” running through Kramatorsk, according to the think tank.
Moreover, Ukrainian forces aren’t exactly standing still in the sector. On Sunday or Monday, Ukrainian troops counterattacked the Russian salient and, according to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, “pushed the enemy back slightly from the village of Zoria.”
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Late on 26 May, Oleh Hryhorov, head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, confirmed that Russian forces now control four settlements in the northern region of Ukraine. According to his Facebook post, the occupied locations include Novenke and Basivka of Yunakivka community, and Veselivka and Zhuravka in the Khotin community.
Russian forces have launched aggressive ground operations in northeastrn Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast trying to establish a so-called “buffer zone” to prevent further Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. Prior Ukrainian offensives penetrated into the southern part of adjacent Kursk Oblast, though Russian forces have largely regained control over the previously captured areas.
Hryhorov emphasized that residents of these villages had long been evacuated, stating there is no threat to civilians. The official did not specify when Russian forces took control of the settlements.
Fighting continues near the occupied zone
Hryhorov also reported ongoing clashes on the outskirts of Vodolahy, and near Volodymyrivka, Bilovody, Kostyantynivka, and Kindrativka in the Hotin community, as well as around Loknya in the Yunakivka community.
“The enemy continues attempts to advance in order to create a so-called ‘buffer zone’,” he wrote.
According to Hryhorov,
“The Ukrainian Defense Forces and all components of the defense system are keeping the situation under control, delivering precise fire strikes on the enemy. Our defenders are firmly repelling the enemy’s attacks and preventing further advances into Sumy Oblast.”
Territorial control estimates
The Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState, maintaining an interactive map of the war zone, estimates that the areas of 62.6 km² and 0.69 km² are currently under Russian occupation in the region, with an additional 36.98 km² marked as a gray zone where neither side maintains firm control.
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Asbestos is bad for your health, so it’s not a good idea for Russian paratroopers to reinforce their armored vehicles with the carcinogenic material. But cancer-causing asbestos is the least of the Russians’ problem as they assault positions held by the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade in around Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.
But Ukrainian troops have problems, too. Despite inflicting horrific casualties on the attacking Russians, the Ukrainians are still outnumbered and outgunned—and falling back on some key axes.
The Russian 98th Airborne Division is trying to capture the ruins of Chasiv Yar in order to clear a path toward Kostiantynivka, an industrial town with a pre-war population of around 70,000 that anchors a line of urban settlements stretching to the north in Donetsk. Kostiantynivka lies just a few kilometers southwest of Chasiv Yar.
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But the 24th Mechanized Brigade’s drones are everywhere all the time over Chasiv Yar—and they’re making life extremely dangerous for the 98th Airborne Division’s paratroopers. The division’s eight-ton BMD-2 infantry fighting vehicles are made from aluminum—to make them lighter and easier to transport by air, so they’re extremely vulnerable to enemy gunfire and artillery.
They’re even more vulnerable to drones that can attack from above and behind, where the BMD-2s’ thin armor is even thinner. So, according to open-source analyst Moklasen, the 98th Airborne Division has bolted asbestos roof sheets onto the sides of its BMD-2s and around the vehicles’ rear passenger compartment.
Asbestos fibers can cause long-term health problems, but the Russians’ problems are more immediate. In a year of hard fighting, they’ve captured half of Chasiv Yar—but it’s cost them thousands of troops and potentially hundreds of vehicles.
An assault just south of Chasiv Yar on Sunday by paratroopers riding in one BMD-2 and an armored truck and on six motorcycles ended in defeat when the 24th Mechanized Brigade’s drones spotted the attackers—and explosive drones and artillery rained down.
Asbestos isn’t flammable, but aluminum is, so the up-armored BMD-2 burned.
Russian paratroopers with an asbestos BMD-2. Via Moklasen.
The bloody march on Kostiantynivka
The Russians are making very little progress in and around Chasiv Yar, and what little ground they do gain every month comes at an incredible cost. But that doesn’t mean Kostiantynivka isn’t in peril. Russian regiments are also marching on the city from the southeast and southwest.
And in the southwest in particular, they’re advancing at a relatively fast pace.
In just the last few weeks, they’ve marched tens of kilometers toward Kostiantynivka, pushing back unprepared Ukrainian troops and capturing around 250 square kilometers along the city’s southern flank. The Russian vanguard is now just nine kilometers from Kostiantynivka’s outskirts.
The Russian advance from the southwest “risks outflanking Ukrainian defensive lines and denies time for construction of new fortifications,” explained analyst Konrad Muzyka.
The Russians’ next objective is probably the village of Rusyn Yar. “Should Russian forces secure a breakthrough near Rusyn Yar, it would constitute a critical tactical gain, severely degrading Ukrainian defensive depth,” Muzyka warned.
Map of Kostiantynivka, by Euromaidan Press
A Russian victory in Rusyn Yar could render the Russian defeats in Chasiv Yar—including the destruction of asbestos fighting vehicles—irrelevant.
The fall of Rusyn Yar wouldn’t necessarily doom Kostiantynivka. Ukrainian defenses tend to get denser the closer they lie to the bigger cities. Recall that the Russian offensive toward Pokrovsk, farther south in Donetsk, moved swiftly through last year—and then ground to a halt just a few kilometers outside the city early this year.
But the closer the Russians get to Kostiantynivka, the more artillery and drones they can fling at the city center.
They could do to Kostyantynivka what they’ve done to many front-line cities: steadily demolish it, killing or forcing out any civilians who haven’t already fled—and rendering the ruins less valuable to Ukrainian forces, who may choose to withdraw … allowing the Russians to nudge the front line farther to the north and west.
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