Russia made more territorial gains in Ukraine in May 2025 than in nearly any month since the end of 2022, but the Kremlin’s aim is not only battlefield progress but also to shape perceptions in Western capitals, making a Russian victory appear inevitable and discouraging future support for Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Kremlin intensifies multi-front assaults to create momentum

WSJ reports that the Russian offensive has expanded across several fronts, with the Kremlin probing for weaknesses while forcing Ukraine to defend along the entire 1,000 km front line. Moscow seeks to exploit its manpower advantage and the onset of summer foliage, which hampers Ukrainian drone visibility.

George Barros, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War, told WSJ:

“The center of gravity for this war is not terrain—the place where it’s being decisively waged is the perception space in Western capitals.” He added, referring to the Russian reasoning behind the strategy: “If the map is moving, they’re able to say, ‘We’re making progress. Ukraine is screwed. How many more billions are you going to spend?’”

Putin counting on US fatigue to win what his army cannot, WP op-ed argues

Kostyantynivka becomes key focus in eastern Ukraine

In Donetsk Oblast, Russia has shifted troops toward Kostiantynivka from Pokrovsk, surrounding the city on three sides. The city, a vital logistics hub, is under increased attack. A senior Ukrainian lieutenant fighting in the area told WSJ: “The city is rapidly transforming into a front line.” He also warned of frequent, precise Russian drone strikes enabled by fiber-optic drones capable of traveling up to 40 km — double their range a year ago.

Russian airstrikes intensify on Ukrainian second defensive line northeast of Pokrovsk

Northern front sees renewed Russian push toward Sumy

In Ukraine’s north, Russian troops have entered Sumy Oblast after amassing over 50,000 soldiers. According to WSJ, one Ukrainian sergeant in the region said the Russians outnumber local troops roughly two-to-one. Russian forces appear to be attempting to seize Yunakivka and ultimately reach the regional capital of Sumy, located less than 30 km from the border.

Even where Russian forces have not advanced, assaults continue to fix Ukrainian forces in place. A Ukrainian captain in the Pokrovsk area told WSJ that Russian attacks happen at all hours:

“They want to reach the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast—it’s important to them symbolically.”

Russia captures Sumy’s Kostiantynivka village as Russians try to widen frontline in region

Zaporizhzhia buildup raises concerns of wider offensive

Ukrainian officials and sources familiar with the matter told WSJ that Russia is also increasing its troop presence in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian special forces have been sent there to reinforce defenses.

A senior lieutenant near Kostiantynivka summarized the toll of the ongoing campaign:

“We anticipate worsening conditions across all directions this summer. Personnel are exhausted. There are not enough rotations. Everyone is operating at the edge of their limits.”

Russia’s claims of success in Ukraine mask a far grimmer military reality: minimal territorial gains exchanged for unprecedented casualties and losses, Riley McCabe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues in an opinion piece in The Washington Post.

The author notes that Moscow shows little interest in serious diplomacy and continues to demand maximalist terms while launching new attacks. The op-ed emphasizes that despite its narrative of strength, Russia’s hand is far weaker than assumed by many in the West.

Russia’s advances yield limited territorial gains  

In contrast, McCabe writes that Russia has been using brute force to advance since early 2024, but with little to show for it. Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies cited in the article shows that Moscow has seized less than 1% of Ukrainian territory since January 2024—an area smaller than Delaware. Russian forces have managed daily advances averaging only about 50 meters near Kupiansk and roughly 135 meters in parts of Donetsk Oblast, even in their most active sectors.

Ukraine’s defenses, McCabe writes, give it the edge. Russian forces run into minefields, trench systems, and artillery zones, with drones causing most combat deaths. This setup has turned the conflict into a bloody deadlock.

Scale of Russian casualties is historical

According to McCabe, these minor gains have come at an extraordinary cost. Russian fatalities in Ukraine now exceed the total number of Soviet and Russian soldiers killed in every war since World War II combined. By summer 2025, Russia is projected to surpass 1 million total military casualties. The op-ed notes that Russian equipment losses since January 2024 include roughly 1,200 armored fighting vehicles, 3,200 infantry fighting vehicles, and 1,900 tanks.

Russia loses one million soldiers: Moscow’s casualties reach seven figures, Ukraine says

McCabe includes comparisons showing that Russia’s death toll in Ukraine now exceeds losses in every Soviet and Russian war since World War II. The opinion piece includes visual breakdowns of fatalities from conflicts in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Syria, Georgia, and others—none of which approach current Ukrainian war figures.

Putin bets on US withdrawal, not battlefield success

The opinion piece argues that Russia’s best hope lies in Western political fatigue. McCabe writes,

“Putin is betting that political fatigue in Washington will deliver him what his military cannot.”

The author warns that a loss of US support could deprive Ukraine of air defenses, munitions, and strike capabilities, and shatter morale. 

Trump again blames both Ukraine and Russia for failing to reach a peace deal

Russia is expanding its missile reserves, increasing drone production, and modifying drone technologies as part of a long-term military strategy to achieve its war objectives in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on 26 May. These developments signal Russia’s full commitment to securing victory through military means in a protracted conflict, according to the think tank.

ISW stated that Russia’s growing stockpile of ballistic missiles, rising drone output, and ongoing drone adaptations demonstrate a sustained effort to strengthen its strike capabilities. The Economist, citing Ukrainian government sources on 25 May, reported that Russia has accumulated around 500 ballistic missiles. At the same time, Moscow is reportedly producing about 100 Shahed explosive drones per day — roughly four to five times the daily output estimated in late 2024.

Ukrainian military intelligence told The Economist that Russia intends to increase this drone production to 500 units per day, although no specific deadline was mentioned. Engineers in Ukraine noted that Russian forces are actively modifying Shahed drones to overcome Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. These upgrades include the use of artificial intelligence and integration with Ukrainian internet and mobile networks for improved navigation.

Following a record 355-drone attack, Russia launches 60 drones—Ukraine intercepts most

New Shahed tactics

A Ukrainian officer interviewed by The Economist stated that Russian drones are flying at altitudes of 2,000 to 2,500 meters, beyond the effective range of small arms and shoulder-fired missiles used by Ukrainian mobile air defense units. On 25 May, Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, Head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, reported that Russian forces had set a new altitude record with a Shahed drone flight reaching 4,900 meters.

Colonel Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force, confirmed on 26 May that Russia is producing both Shahed and decoy drones in higher numbers and deploying them at higher altitudes. Ihnat also noted that Russian forces resumed the use of Kh-22 cruise missiles after a period of reduced deployment. According to ISW, the resurgence of large-scale missile and drone strike packages aligns with Russia’s broader strategy of enhancing its domestic weapons production and long-term war preparations.

ISW: Russia ramps up missile strikes and propaganda in bid to crush Ukrainian morale and Western will

Russia’s goals unchanged, but it economy struggles 

Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service Chief Oleh Ivashchenko said in a 26 May Ukrinform interview that Russia’s goal of full control over Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts remains unchanged. He warned that Russia is also preparing for a future conflict with NATO, in line with ISW’s assessments.

“ISW also continues to assess that the Russian government and military are preparing for a possible future conflict with NATO. Russian authorities recently renewed their years-long narrative rejecting the legality of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, likely to set conditions for Russia to deny the independence and sovereignty of other former Soviet states in the future,” the think tank wrote.

WP: Trump softens on Putin as Russian battlefield edge declines

Ivashchenko noted Russia’s economic struggles, with its sovereign wealth fund reduced to $38 billion from $150 billion pre-invasion, and highlighted reliance on Soviet-era equipment. He stated that foreign aid from North Korea, China, and Belarus is playing a growing role in Russia’s defense industry.

“Russia’s efforts to increase domestic drone and missile production and ongoing adaptations of these strike packages are likely part of a broader Russian effort to prepare for a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly a future war with NATO,” ISW wrote.