Russia’s aircraft plants still turn out modern fighter-bombers and fighters, enough to partly cover its losses, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency HUR told Ukrainian news agency UNIAN, which published the reply on 23 October. Its older bombers are a different story. Russia has no serial production of new Tu-95s, Tu-22M3s, or Su-24s and keeps them flying through repairs and upgrades, so each one lost for good leaves a lasting gap, HUR said.

Ukraine’s Navy said its Neptune missiles hit six Su-34M bombers at Borisoglebsk airbase in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast overnight into 15 October. Zelenskyy later said four were destroyed and two damaged. The Su-34 is one of the jets that drop Russia’s glide bombs, heavy bombs fitted with wing-and-guidance kits, on Ukrainian positions and towns.

How fast Russia replaces its jets

Russia can probably deliver 10–15 Su-34s a year now, HUR estimated. Deliveries grew from eight in 2022 to 11 in 2023 and 12–14 in 2024. But the agency said that trend does not confirm the same pace today.

For the Su-35S fighter, HUR pointed to an average of about 11–12 a year in 2021–2025. It called that a rough benchmark, not an established 2026 output. Su-30SM2 and Su-57 production continues, but reliable rates cannot be determined. Su-30 figures also mix new builds with upgrades of older Su-30SMs, HUR noted.

What Russia had, and what it lost or saw badly damaged in 2026

By the end of 2025, Russia had about 125 Su-34 and Su-34M bombers, which HUR counts together. It also had 140–145 Su-30 jets of various versions, 135–140 Su-35S, and about 20 Su-57s, HUR estimated. These are only fleet estimates, not a guaranteed number of jets Russia can send on combat missions at the same time, the agency cautioned. Some are under repair or upgrade, and HUR is not disclosing the current fleet size.

HUR also named specific 2026 cases of Russian aircraft destroyed or critically damaged. A Tu-22M3 crashed in Irkutsk Oblast on 15 June. Strikes on Engels airbase on 17 July and 28 August hit two Tu-95MS. The first suffered critical damage to its tail section, and HUR treats the second as a probable irrecoverable loss.

The list also includes a Su-35 that Ukraine’s military says it shot down on 8 July, a claim backed by published materials showing debris. It adds a Su-57 crash in Moscow Oblast on 23 July and a collision of two Su-35S over Kursk Oblast on 7 September. Full official details on those two incidents are still missing, HUR noted. Strikes on several Su-57s and a Su-34 at Shagol airbase on 25 April, and on a Su-24 in Crimea on 7 September, were also reported, but the state of those jets is unknown, so counting them as destroyed would be premature, HUR said. The list, as published, leaves out the Su-34s at Borisoglebsk and the Tu-95MS that Russia’s defense ministry said crashed on takeoff in Amur Oblast in late September.

Ukraine's defense minister raised the urgent need for Patriot interceptors with Sweden on 22 October, the Defense Ministry reported. The same day, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned of more Russian ballistic strikes and blamed US supply cuts.

Patriots are Ukraine's main defense against Russian ballistic missiles, and their deliveries keep shrinking. Figures Zelenskyy released in August showed Patriot interceptor deliveries falling from 675 in 2023 to 364 in 2025, with 264 projected for 2026. Europe holds enough PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors for Ukraine's minimum winter needs, Zelenskyy told journalists on 16 October, but he did not yet know how many Europe would hand over, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

Partners' stocks now, Ukraine's missiles later

Russia fired 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv overnight on 22 October, Zelenskyy said. Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara told his Swedish counterpart, Pål Jonson, that Ukraine must counter ballistic threats as fast as possible, in particular with Patriot interceptors.

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The ministry's readout says Ukraine has Patriot missiles under contract. It also says Kyiv asks partners to transfer interceptors from their stocks in exchange for future deliveries allocated to Ukraine.

Khmara made the same request at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on 8 September. He said then that Ukraine was contracting about 1,000 Patriot missiles with partners' help and an EU loan, but they would arrive only in the coming years, LB reported. He asked allies for missiles from their stocks now, in exchange for future upgraded missiles under Ukraine's contracts.

"Only when the American side approves it"

Zelenskyy spoke to journalists before meeting Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, Ukrinform reported. He said the Americans had reduced supplies and Russia would step up ballistic attacks.

"Europeans can provide the missiles only when the American side approves it," Zelenskyy said.

He said the US had sent most of its interceptors to the Middle East.

On 19 October, Zelenskyy told US senators that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was not signing off on Patriot deliveries allies had already paid for. Axios obtained the call transcript from Ukrainian officials. A US government official told the Kyiv Independent that Ukrainian officials' claims that Hegseth was holding up the missiles were "not true."

Washington says nothing has changed. "We have our own needs, too," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 20 October, but there is "nothing being deliberately denied to Ukraine." Hegseth told reporters in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, that the US had not changed its posture toward Ukraine, "but certainly with things like interceptors, we want to make sure our guys have the most possible as well."