Russia knows its demands are impossible. That’s the point.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb spelled this out during a Fox News interview, describing Moscow’s approach as calculated theater.

“That’s typical Russian negotiation tactics,” Stubb told the One Nation program. “You say one unacceptable thing at the beginning and then you start retracting. It happens all the time.”

Imagine giving up American territories to Russia

Stubb offered American viewers a stark comparison to grasp what Russia actually wants from Ukraine. Picture the US surrendering Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland to an adversary. Then imagine that adversary building “some kind of superhighway through which you can attack New York.”

“That’s what Putin is asking from Ukraine,” the Finnish president said.

The math on Russian progress tells its own story. After years of trying to capture the Donbas region since 2014, Russia controls 75% of the territory. But half of that came immediately at the start of the conflict. The remaining gains?

“He’s really advancing just tiny bit at a time,” Stubb noted.

The territorial comparison isn’t new to diplomatic circles. During 18 August White House talks with Trump, President Zelenskyy and European leaders used the same Florida analogy with the US President—and it resonated.

Ukraine needs three-tier security framework

Stubb sees those recent discussions with Trump as laying groundwork for future security arrangements.

“One of the key outcomes of what I would call a successful meeting with President Trump—we started to work on the details of future security guarantees,” he said.

Stubb outlined a three-tier security framework, explaining that Ukraine would serve as its own primary defender with what he described as one of the world’s most modern and largest armies.

Europe would provide the second layer of support, while the United States would contribute some form of assistance as the third component.

But here’s Stubb’s bottom line: “It’s not going to be Russia to tell Europe or the US what they can or cannot do with security guarantees.”

On 24 August, US Vice President J.D. Vance told NBC News that Russia will inevitably have “some stake” in security guarantee discussions for Ukraine, arguing that Moscow’s participation is necessary since they are “the critical party necessary to stop the killing.”

Vance also reaffirmed that American military personnel will not be deployed to Ukraine, but indicated that Washington would maintain an active role in Ukrainian security alongside European nations who would take on significant responsibilities.

US Vice President J.D. Vance stated that Russia will “have some stake” in discussions about security guarantees for Ukraine in attempts to bring the war to an end, according to his interview with NBC News.

Vance argued that Russian participation is inevitable given their central role in the war.

“How can you reasonably provide security guarantees without talking to the Russians about what would be necessary to bring the war to a close?” he told NBC News, adding that “they’re the critical party necessary to stop the killing.”

The vice president also maintained the White House position that American military personnel will not be deployed to Ukraine under any security arrangement.

However, he assured that Washington would continue playing an active role in Ukrainian security and suggested European nations and other countries would take on significant responsibilities.

Russia wants security guarantees for Ukraine as discussed in 2022

Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff earlier said that Putin and Trump agreed on “reliable security guarantees” during their Alaska meeting on 15 August, including protections similar to NATO’s Article 5.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, also speaking to NBC News on 24 August, stated that security guarantees must “be built on consensus”.

He revealed that during Alaska talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin briefed Donald Trump on principles the Ukrainian delegation had proposed during April 2022 negotiations in Istanbul.

According to Lavrov, those earlier Ukrainian proposals included establishing a security guarantor group comprising UN Security Council permanent members—Britain, China, the United States, France, and Russia—along with Germany, Türkiye, and other interested nations. The arrangement would require Ukraine to remain neutral, avoid military alliances, and maintain non-nuclear status.

Russia demands territorial concessions

Lavrov also told NBC that Russia does not recognize Zelenskyy as Ukraine’s legitimate leader but only as the “de facto head of the regime.”

Russian Foreign Minister demanded Ukraine surrender occupied territories, referring to eastern and southern Ukrainian regions as “Novorossiya” and insisting Ukraine must “let people go” in these areas. He presented these territorial concessions as conditions for Ukraine’s right to exist as a sovereign state.

Europe ready to deploy peacekeepers

European officials are discussing plans to deploy British and French military personnel to Ukraine as security guarantees, with approximately 10 countries ready to participate in the initiative.

The plan involves European troops initially focusing on training Ukrainian forces away from combat zones, while the US would provide logistics, air support, intelligence sharing, and weapons without deploying American soldiers.

However, several European officials remain skeptical that these guarantees will actually deter Putin, with many expecting peace talks to fail and expose Russia’s unwillingness to end the conflict.