What is going on with the economy right now?

There are a lot of mixed signals. President Trump slashed taxes, but he’s also bringing in a lot of money through tariffs. Inflation is creeping up, but the stock market keeps rising. Eye-wateringly large investments are flowing to A.I., which could lead to an explosion of productivity but also mass job loss. And then Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a disappointing jobs report, raising concerns that the government’s data on the economy might get shakier.

Natasha Sarin is the president and a founder of the Budget Lab at Yale. She has been tracking these trends and modeling the potential economic effects of many of Trump’s policies. I invited her on the show to walk through what she is thinking about the economy.

Mentioned:

“The Tariffs Kicked In. The Sky Didn’t Fall. Were the Economists Wrong?” by Jason Furman

“Does the Stock Market Know Something We Don’t?” by Rogé Karma

Book Recommendations:

Showdown at Gucci Gulch by Alan Murray

Remarkably Bright Creatures by Shelby Van Pelt

The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.

You can find the transcript and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html

This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. Our executive producer is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Marie Cascione, Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith, Kristin Lin, Jack McCordick, Marina King and Jan Kobal. Original music by Aman Sahota, Carole Sabouraud and Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The director of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Katharine Abraham, Skanda Amarnath, Kimberly Clausing, Kathryn Anne Edwards, Matthew Klein, and Claudia Sahm.

Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

In December 2023, when South Africa accused Israel of genocide before the International Court of Justice, I thought it was wrong to do so. Israel had been attacked. Its defense was legitimate. The blood was on Hamas’s hands.

But over the last year, I have watched a slew of organizations and scholars arrive at the view that whatever Israel’s war on Gaza began as, its mass assault on Palestinian civilians fits the definition of genocidal violence. This is a view now held by Amnesty International, B’Tselem, Human Rights Watch, and the president of the International Association of Genocide Scholars, among many others

One reason I have stayed away from the word genocide is that there is an imprecision at its heart. When people use the word genocide, I think they imagine something like the Holocaust: the attempted extermination of an entire people. But the legal definition of genocide encompasses much more than that.

So what is a genocide? And is this one?

Philippe Sands is a lawyer who’s worked on a number of genocide cases. He is the author of, among other books, “East West Street,” about how the idea of genocide was developed and written into international law. He is the best possible guide to the hardest possible topic.

Mentioned:

“What the Inventor of the Word ‘Genocide’ Might Have Said About Putin’s War” by Philippe Sands

“‘Only the Strong Survive.’ How Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu Is Testing the Limits of Power” by Brian Bennett

“The laws of war must guide Israel’s response to Hamas atrocity”

The Ratline by Philippe Sands

38 Londres Street by Philippe Sands

Book Recommendations:

Janet Flanner’s World by Janet Flanner

Commonwealth by Ann Patchett

By Night in Chile by Roberto Bolaño

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.

You can find the transcript and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html

This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Jack McCordick and Annie Galvin. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, with Kate Sinclair. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. Our executive producer is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Marie Cascione, Annie Galvin, Rollin Hu, Elias Isquith, Kristin Lin, Marina King and Jan Kobal. Original music by Marian Lozano, Dan Powell, Carole Sabouraud and Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The director of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser.

Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.