Russian forces are advancing northeast of Pokrovsk and may be preparing a wider push toward Dobropillia, aiming to bypass Ukraine’s heavily fortified “fortress belt” in Donetsk Oblast from the west. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 5 July disclosed the Russian news envelopment strategy near the fortress belt, saying that recent gains and troop movements indicate a renewed focus on partial envelopment tactics rather than direct assaults on fortified positions.

Envelopment strategy: Tactical focus on Dobropillya and Rodynske

ISW noted in its 5 July 2025 assessment that Russian troops had recently taken Koptieve and Shevchenko Pershe and advanced into southeastern Razine, northeast of Pokrovsk. These gains support a broader objective: enveloping Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad from multiple directions “to force Ukrainian withdrawals” without a frontal assault on Ukraine’s main defense line, based on Russia’s operational patterns showed in its in previous seizures of cities in the region.

“The Russian military command is likely implementing the same doctrinal method used to seize Avdiivka and Vuhledar in its attempts to seize Pokrovsk and possibly Ukraine’s fortress belt,” ISW wrote.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed on 28 June that Russian forces are actively attacking in the “Dobropillya direction.” Units involved include the Russian 68th Army Corps and two divisions from the 8th Combined Arms Army.

Combat elements of the Russian 39th and 150th Motorized Rifle units, having operated in the Pokrovsk area since spring 2025, recently advanced near Novotoretske and Novoekonomichne. They previously seized Malynivka and now hold Koptieve. Meanwhile, elements from the 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade are also active northeast of Pokrovsk.

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Struggles in other sectors push tactical adaptation

ISW says Russian forces have struggled to break Ukrainian lines southeast and southwest of Pokrovsk since early 2025, especially under drone fire. Instead of launching high-risk penetrations, Russia now appears to be prioritizing slow advances toward Rodynske and Dobropillia to exert pressure on the fortress belt from the west, which supports the idea that the Russians are imposing the new – envelopment – strategy near the fortress belt. Ukrainian artillery units report repeated attacks in areas such as Malynivka, Novoolenivka, and Popiv Yar — all northeast of Pokrovsk.

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A Ukrainian National Guard commander stated on 5 July that Russian forces are using motorcycles and buggies to conduct assaults. Russian milbloggers reported that Kremlin forces have tried to disrupt Ukrainian logistics by damaging a bridge near Shakhove and targeting ground lines near Udachne and Kotlyne.

Possible long-term operation west of the fortress belt

Further Russian moves toward Dobropillia would suggest an effort to develop a salient bypassing Ukraine’s fortress belt from the west. To sustain such a position, Russian forces would need to secure settlements along the Pokrovsk-Oleksandrivka line and ensure supply over the Kazenyi Torets River — a task complicated by uncertain river conditions and Ukrainian resistance.

“Such an operation would likely be a multi-year effort with significant personnel losses and hard-fought gains, although Russian forces have proven willing to undertake such long-term operations,” ISW wrote.

ISW assesses that the Russian command may be adapting its original strategy for a direct assault against Kostiantynivka and instead pursuing operations to envelop the fortress belt through attritional advances. However, the success of this approach remains uncertain given the apparent exhaustion of Russian units after over a year of sustained operations in the area.