The possibility of using €140 billion of frozen Russian assets for a reparations loan to Ukraine is a unique opportunity for the state. Especially since the US has ceased military aid following Donald Trump's election. However, legal challenges in using these assets are compounded by concerns over how the money might be utilized amid the backdrop of a new corruption scandal, La Repubblica reports.
On 10 November, EU-backed anti-corruption agencies uncovered a large scheme,
The possibility of using €140 billion of frozen Russian assets for a reparations loan to Ukraine is a unique opportunity for the state. Especially since the US has ceased military aid following Donald Trump's election. However, legal challenges in using these assets are compounded by concerns over how the money might be utilized amid the backdrop of a new corruption scandal, La Repubblica reports.
On 10 November, EU-backed anti-corruption agencies uncovered a large scheme, "Midas", involving four Ukrainian ministries and the country's top energy company. The case is especially painful to the ordinary Ukrainians, who continue to endure up to 12-hour blackouts following Russian missile attacks.
According to investigators, the perpetrators demanded kickbacks amounting to 10–15% of Energoatom contract values. Contractors had to pay to avoid blocked payments or the loss of supplier status. Timyr Mindich, one of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's closest associates, oversaw the operation of a so-called “laundromat”, where funds were stolen.
The embezzlement of state funds in the energy sector, exceeding $100 million, has raised significant concerns in Europe.
The "Midas" corruption case under Europe's scrutiny
During the Eurogroup meeting on 12 November, where instruments for financing Ukrainian resistance over the next two years were again discussed, several finance ministers repeatedly referred to this corruption case.
Moreover, the scandal in Ukraine erupted after the release of the latest European Commission report on the EU candidate countries, presented last week. It provides a clear assessment that Ukraine has made limited progress in the fight against corruption.
The report also mentions the temporary suspension in July of the independence of the anti-corruption agencies, which are currently handling the case involving the embezzlement of $100 million in state funds. These institutions, according to the report, report growing pressure from state authorities.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on 9 November that Ukraine and EU partners are preparing the 20th sanctions package against Russia, expected within a month, as Moscow's oil revenues collapsed 27% year-on-year in October amid existing restrictions and falling crude prices.
The timing connects Ukraine's push for expanded sanctions with mounting evidence that economic pressure is beginning to crack Russia's war financing. Russia collected 888.6 billion
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on 9 November that Ukraine and EU partners are preparing the 20th sanctions package against Russia, expected within a month, as Moscow's oil revenues collapsed 27% year-on-year in October amid existing restrictions and falling crude prices.
The timing connects Ukraine's push for expanded sanctions with mounting evidence that economic pressure is beginning to crack Russia's war financing. Russia collected 888.6 billion rubles ($9.7 billion) in oil and gas taxes in October, down from the same month last year, according to Russia's Finance Ministry.
Ukraine's three-pronged sanctions proposal
Zelenskyy outlined specific targets for the 20th package in his evening address:
Energy sector entities: Russian legal entities and individuals still profiting from energy resources despite existing restrictions
Child abduction networks: Updated listings of Russians involved in forcibly deporting Ukrainian children to Russia
Military supply chains: Companies and countries enabling Russia's weapons production through component exports
"Every Russian missile and every Russian drone contains specific components from other countries, specific countries – without them, there would simply be no Russian weapons," Zelenskyy said, directing Ukraine's Foreign Ministry to intensify work on cutting these supply lines.
Russian war chest shows cracks
The revenue collapse suggests sanctions are gaining traction. Russia's oil and gas revenues totaled 7.5 trillion rubles over the first 10 months of 2025, down 2 trillion from 9.54 trillion a year earlier. The decline accelerated from 14% in the first five months to 21% by October.
Multiple factors drove the drop: Russia's Urals crude averaged just $53.99 per barrel in October, below the government's $70 initial forecast and even its revised $56 target. Meanwhile, late October saw the US sanction Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two largest oil companies accounting for half of Russian crude exports—about 2.2 million barrels daily.
Around 70% of Russia's seaborne oil exports now face US restrictions. Analyst Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance Global estimates a 5-10% drop in Rosneft and Lukoil exports combined with wider discounts could cost Russia's state budget up to 120 billion rubles ($1.3 billion) monthly.
Moscow's budget scramble
Russia's Finance Ministry expects a 22% shortfall in hydrocarbon revenues for 2025, projecting just 8.6 trillion rubles against an initial 10.94 trillion target. The ministry sees no significant recovery through 2028, with oil and gas revenues projected at 8.9 trillion in 2026, 9 trillion in 2027, and 9.7 trillion in 2028—still 20%, 19%, and 13% below 2024 levels respectively.
To plug widening fiscal gaps expected to reach 5.7 trillion rubles this year and exceed 10 trillion over the next three years, Moscow plans sharp tax increases. Value-added tax rises to 22% starting next year, small business taxes jump significantly, and the Finance Ministry aims to raise 12 trillion rubles through new borrowing.
Ukraine tightens domestic enforcement
Ukraine also introduced new sanctions Saturday targeting Russian government officials, occupation administrators, propagandists, collaborators, and military-industrial complex workers. "Russia continues its war, and in response, there must be our strong pressure with partners – pressure that is truly tangible for Russia, that brings them losses and that is felt politically," Zelenskyy said.
The president emphasized that all Russian attempts to disrupt processes with the United States and Europe would receive sanctions responses, declaring: "Everything gets its own reaction, its own sanctions."
Ukraine is paying a terrible price for its resistance to Russia's genocide war and occupation. On the night of 8 November, all of Ukraine came under fire. The Russian army launched over 450 attack drones and 45 missiles, targeting residential buildings and energy infrastructure across the country.
According to Centrenergo, a company supplying electricity to central and eastern Ukraine, its three thermal power plants have been forced to shut down following the attacks.
Ukraine is paying a terrible price for its resistance to Russia's genocide war and occupation. On the night of 8 November, all of Ukraine came under fire. The Russian army launched over 450 attack drones and 45 missiles, targeting residential buildings and energy infrastructure across the country.
According to Centrenergo, a company supplying electricity to central and eastern Ukraine, its three thermal power plantshave been forced to shut down following the attacks. Eight regions are facing widespread power outages, and in Kyiv, residents are left without electricity for up to 12 hours a day.
In Dnipro, a drone strike on a residential building killed three people.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved from a strategy of conquering Ukraine to a strategy of its destruction. The goal is to render parts of the country uninhabitable, crash the industry, and provoke mass emigration and panic.
“More pressure on Moscow”: Zelenskyy calls for stronger sanctions
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attacks must trigger a unified global sanctions response.
“Every strike by Moscow on our energy sector must be met with sanctions on the entire Russian energy sector, without exception. Nuclear energy, the military-industrial complex, and trade in oil and gas must all be under sanctions," Zelenskyy claimed.
He emphasized that the world must act on frozen Russian assets and increase support for Ukraine to prevent the Kremlin from destroying the country’s civilian energy system before winter.
25 ballistic and seven hypersonic missiles
According to Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat, Russia used a record number of ballistic missiles in this latest strike, per 24 Channel.
“Twenty-five Iskander-M/KN-23s and seven Kinzhal missiles. A total of 32 missiles followed ballistic trajectories. This is Russia's new tactic," he said.
The main strikes hit the regions of Kharkiv, Kyiv, Poltava, Dnipro, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Odesa.
Ukrainian rescuers carried a girl out of damaged building in Dnipro after Russian drone crashed directly into it
Three people were killed, while others were thrown from their beds and pinned under window frames by blast wave. Russia ruined 111 apartments Suspilne Dnipro pic.twitter.com/RjAZfAi8Se
Largest national oil and gas company says Russia wants to freeze Ukrainians
Naftogaz CEO Serhii Koretskyi said the 8 November strike was the ninth deliberate attack on civilian gas infrastructure since early October.
“This is yet another act of terrorism aimed at depriving Ukrainians of gas, heat, and electricity during the winter," said the head of the the largest national oil and gas company of Ukraine.
Ukraine strengthens energy ties with the West
On the eve of the strikes, Ukraine signed an agreement to import US liquefied natural gas (LNG) via Greek terminals. According to the Ministry of Energy, the deal represents a long-term partnership through 2050, ensuring stable gas supplies and integrating Ukraine into European energy routes.
“We are building a resilient system for the delivery and storage of American gas to prevent Moscow’s energy blackmail,” saidEnergy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk.
Russia’s deadly winter offensive tests the world
The Kremlin is now operating even more clinically and cynically than before. Russian capabilities and tactics are evolving faster than Ukraine can improve its air defenses, both missile interceptions and electronic warfare measures around sensitive sites. It appears this winter will be a test of endurance like no other.
The Kremlin has changed the way it is terrorizing Ukrainians when temperatures are going low, by concentrating on specific regions, striking in waves, and using new variants of cheap Shahed drones.
The drones are also attacking differently, approaching from near‑vertical trajectories and flying above the effective range of machine guns, almost like missiles.
Beyond the cost of damaged infrastructure, recent attacks are forcing Ukraine to spend a staggering $1.9 billion on imported gas.
Experts warn that this winter could be one of the toughest in Ukraine’s history. The world’s response will determine whether the aggressor can be contained or whether the global community allows the destruction of sovereign nations by force.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved from a strategy of conquering Ukraine to a strategy of its destruction. The goal is to render parts of the country uninhabitable, crash the industry, and provoke mass emigration and panic.
“Iranization” describes a country that is stuck with limited modernization, long-term stagnation, and a deepening dependence on China. It’s the first major Western institutional attempt to define Russia’s trajectory as structurally comparable to Iran’s decades-long isolation.
The deterioration is accelerating faster than mid-year projections suggested.
Russia’s reserves are depleting and deficits mounting through October. Moscow retains the capacity to sustain it
“Iranization” describes a country that is stuck with limited modernization, long-term stagnation, and a deepening dependence on China. It’s the first major Western institutional attempt to define Russia’s trajectory as structurally comparable to Iran’s decades-long isolation.
The deterioration is accelerating faster than mid-year projections suggested.
Russia’s reserves are depleting and deficits mounting through October. Moscow retains the capacity to sustain its invasion through 2026, but the economic model is collapsing into stagflation.
What “Iranization” means
The French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) report, “Europe-Russia: Balance of Power Review,” supervised by nine European think tank directors, defines the term precisely.
Russia’s modernization potential is curtailed, growth will slow severely, and dependence on China will deepen.
Like Iran after decades of sanctions, Russia faces structural isolation from Western markets, financial systems, and technology transfers.
June predictions, October reality
IFRI’s mid-year assessment saw trouble coming. Russia’s economic momentum had peaked by year-end 2024 and was drifting into stagflation. The warning signs included rising inflation, a projected budget deficit of 2.6% in 2025, and the National Wealth Fund’s liquid portion shrinking to $31.5 billion by June 2025.
Four months later, the trajectory is accelerating.
Russia’s budget deficit hit 4.2 trillion rubles ($48.2 billion) in the first eight months of 2025—four times higher than the previous year, per Russian Finance Ministry data. The National Wealth Fund now stands at roughly $40 billion, continuing its decline despite a modest uptick from June.
Russia entered stagflation exactly when IFRI predicted, with deterioration accelerating through autumn.
Explore further
Russia has 18 months of war funding left—and China just said no
The €160 billion gas reckoning
Russia’s isolation shows most starkly in the energy. IFRI calculates Russia’s gas sector won’t recover from losing the European market—€160 ($185) billion in lost Gazprom export revenue over 2025-2030.
This isn’t cyclical disruption. It’s irreversible structural damage.
Yet, as IFRI points out, Europe absorbed the shock. Fossil-fuel import bills halved compared to 2022 levels—over €250 ($288) billion in annual savings for European countries.
The IFRI report notes Europe has implemented an unprecedented industrial policy shift, strengthening resilience and competitiveness while positioning itself to become the world’s most electrified economy and global climate leader by 2030.
War capacity persists
The critical caveat: Russia’s ability to sustain the war effort isn’t exhausted, particularly if oil prices remain stable. Lower oil prices or additional strict sanctions would create precarious conditions, but Moscow retains operational capacity for now.
The IFRI assessment notes that while Russia retains war-fighting capacity, Europe holds clear advantages in air, naval, space, and cyber domains. Russia dominates only land warfare through mass and firepower, plus nuclear intimidation, but cannot project power across all domains at once. Outside Ukraine’s ground war, the military balance remains decisively in Europe’s favor.
The significance of “Iranization” as terminology? It reveals a shift in Western strategic thinking.
Nine European think tank directors supervised this assessment—the first formal Western research framework to treat Russia’s trajectory as permanent structural isolation rather than a recoverable disruption. European planners aren’t asking whether Russia’s economy will recover after the war ends. They’re analyzing how Moscow will function as a sanctioned, isolated state dependent on China for survival, mirroring Tehran’s trajectory over four decades.
Russia fights against the light. On 30 October, Russian aviation dropped guided bombs on the Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant. Two people were killed, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant is located in Donetsk Oblast. Twelve years ago, in 2014, Sloviansk was captured by Russian troops but was liberated a few months later by Ukrainian soldiers. Since then, the city has been regularly shelled by Russian forces. Still, employees at th
Russia fights against the light. On 30 October, Russian aviation dropped guided bombs on the Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant. Two people were killed, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant is located in Donetsk Oblast. Twelve years ago, in 2014, Sloviansk was captured by Russian troops but was liberated a few months later by Ukrainian soldiers. Since then, the city has been regularly shelled by Russian forces. Still, employees at the plant continued to come to work, providing vital services to the remaining civilians.
This is a deliberate attempt to paralyze the energy sector, leave civilians without electricity and heat, and create a humanitarian crisis. The terrorist attack also breaches international humanitarian law, including the Geneva Conventions.
Using violence to intimidate civilians in order to force political or military decisions qualifies as terror and may constitute a war crime.
"This is pure terror"
The strike on the Sloviansk TPP is also a violation of international legislation because the facility is civilian, the attack caused deaths and injuries among civilians, and it created a threat to the population’s energy security.
“A few hours ago, there was a strike on the Sloviansk TPP — Russian bombs. Unfortunately, two people were killed. My condolences. There are injured,” said Zelenskyy.
Part of the Donbas fortress belt
Donbas is an industrial area in the east of Ukraine that includes two regions: Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The Russians have been attempting to seize them for 12 years.
Control over Sloviansk would enable Russian occupiers to strengthen their defenses and establish logistical routes for further operations in the Donbas, including those toward Kramatorsk.
Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk are part of the Donbas fortress belt. Together, these cities form Ukraine’s eastern stronghold. If it falls, the defensive ring could be flanked, leaving the heart of Donbas vulnerable.
Ukraine counters terror with Norway, Germany, Netherlands
In his night address to the nation, Zelenskyy emphasized that Russia deliberately conducts terrorist attacks on civilian energy infrastructure, and the world must respond.
"This is pure terror. Such Russian warfare requires an appropriate response from the world," he claimed.
Zelenskyy reported that active negotiations are underway with partners to strengthen Ukraine’s energy sector, supply equipment, and compensate for losses.
Specifically:
Norway — agreements to support gas purchases.
Germany, Italy, Netherlands — cooperation on electricity generation equipment.
European Commission — expected support for energy resilience.
G7 — Ukraine’s Energy Minister is holding negotiations with the energy ministers of the G7.
Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan oil refinery overnight on 23 October, sparking a massive fire at the facility. Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ and Russian news Telegram channel Astra geolocated the blaze to the Rosneft-owned oil refinery, located about 460 km from Ukraine, which supplies fuel to Moscow and surrounding regions. This marks at least the sixth attack on the refinery since January 2025.
The attack is part of Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign targetin
Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan oil refinery overnight on 23 October, sparking a massive fire at the facility. Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ and Russian news Telegram channel Astra geolocated the blaze to the Rosneft-owned oil refinery, located about 460 km from Ukraine, which supplies fuel to Moscow and surrounding regions. This marks at least the sixth attack on the refinery since January 2025.
The attack is part of Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign targeting Russia and its occupied territories during the ongoing war. Kyiv’s primary focus is oil refineries, but the campaign also includes fuel depots, natural gas processing plants, and oil pipeline infrastructure. These strikes aim to disrupt Russia’s military fuel supplies and reduce its petrochemical export revenues, which help fund the war against Ukraine.
The Ryazan refinery belongs to Rosneft and ranks among Russia's largest petroleum facilities. Its declared capacity reaches 17 million tons of crude oil per year. The plant produces all grades of automotive gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene, fuel oil, liquefied gases, bitumen and petrochemical feedstock.
Explosions and fire engulf the Ryazan oil facility
According to the reports, eyewitnesses heard approximately 10 explosions around 3:15 a.m. on the outskirts of Ryazan. Locals also heard blasts in the nearby city of Skopin in Ryazan Oblast. Residents described seeing flashes in the sky before fire erupted at the Ryazan facility. Russian channels confirmed the nighttime explosions across the oblast.
Ukrainian Telegram channels, Exilenova+ and Supernova+, both shared video showing flames on the horizon, reportedly filmed in Ryazan. Exilenova+ reported that drones targeted the Ryazan oil refinery and the Dyagilevo military airfield, while Supernova+ initially stated that the target was the airfield, but later leaned to the refinery as the attack's target.
Last night, drones attacked Rosneft's Ryazan oil refinery in Russia, causing a fire
A massive blaze is reported in the area of the catalytic cracking or hydrocracking unit. The refinery’s annual output is about 12–13 million tons. After earlier drone strikes in August, it… pic.twitter.com/iGFCgnXv4u
Exilenova+ pinpointed the camera operator coordinates to 54.581845, 39.745340, approximately one kilometer from the refinery, and concluded that the fire is taking place on the refinery's premises.
Russian news Telegram channel Astra's analysis confirmed the attack location. The channel geolocated eyewitness footage to the Southern Industrial District near Etalon gas station in Ryazan.
Ryazan Oblast Governor Pavel Malkov later acknowledged that allegedly falling drone "debris" allegedly caused a fire at an industrial facility. He did not specify which enterprise was hit.
Refinery's "heart" targeted again - the oil cracking unit
Based on its pinpointed geolocation, Supernova+ reported the fire occurred in the area of the refinery's catalytic cracking or hydrotreatment unit.
The facility processed approximately 12-13 million tons annually in recent years. In August, Ukrainian drones forced the plant to temporarily reduce production capacity. The refinery operated with only one major unit at roughly half capacity.
Militarnyi noted that the refinery supplies motor fuel to regions surrounding the Russian capital. The facility sits more than 450 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. It serves as a key fuel provider for the Central Federal District.
Pattern of repeated attacks
This attack continues a sustained campaign against the Ryazan facility. On 5 September, drones hitthe ELOU-AVT-6 unit at the refinery. NASA satellites detected a fire at the facility on 22 May. On 24 February, Ukrainian drones damaged the primary oil processing unit.
The refinery also faced attacks overnight on 24 January and again on 26January.
Supernova+ suggested today's strike may have finished off the facility's remaining operational capacity.
US President Donald Trump’s possible upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin has prompted Senate Republicans to hold off on advancing new sanctions legislation against Russia, Politico reported. The delay follows a phone call between the two leaders and growing White House coordination with key Republican senators.
This legislative delay is part of a broader pattern in US policy toward Russia and Ukraine under Trump’s current term. Since taking office in Janu
US President Donald Trump’s possible upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin has prompted Senate Republicans to hold off on advancing new sanctions legislation against Russia, Politico reported. The delay follows a phone call between the two leaders and growing White House coordination with key Republican senators.
This legislative delay is part of a broader pattern in US policy toward Russia and Ukraine under Trump’s current term. Since taking office in January, the Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress have not passed any new sanctions against Russia. Additionally, Trump halted military aid to Ukraine, opting instead to shift toward equipment sales. At the same time, Trump pushes for a Kyiv-Moscow peace deal that would benefit Russia.
Senate Republicans delay new sanctions effort as Trump prepares for Putin summit
Politico says the US Senate Majority Leader, Republican John Thune, said on 20 October that Republicans are holding off on a sanctions bill aimed at Russia and its energy partners until after President Trump meets with Putin in Budapest. Speaking to reporters, Thune explained that “they’re thinking that — see how this meeting goes in a couple of weeks with Putin.” He added that another Republican Senator, Lindsey Graham, who is leading the sanctions push in coordination with the White House, is waiting to assess the outcome of the upcoming meeting.
“I think at least right now [Graham] is working with the White House trying to determine whether or not that meeting that happens in a couple of weeks will be a fruitful one,” Thune said.
Another "person granted anonymity to disclose internal discussions" confirmed to Politico that the sanctions bill is “effectively on ice” until the meeting takes place. Although Trump announced last week that the meeting with Putin would be held in Budapest, Hungary, he did not set a specific date.
The sanctions legislation had been gaining momentum, with over 80 cosponsors supporting measures to impose tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil and gas and to introduce secondary sanctions targeting foreign companies involved in supporting Russia’s energy production.
Trump call with Putin changed GOP strategy
Thune himself had previously stated on 17 October that it was time to move on the legislation. However, on the same day Thune voiced support for action, Trump held an extended phone call with Putin. Following the conversation, Trump began to question whether it was the right time to proceed with the sanctions bill.
Despite the bill’s broad support — enough to override a potential veto — Republican senators are hesitant to act without explicit approval from the President.
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