In Gideon Rachman’s opinion piece for the Financial Times, the columnist argues that while both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries are approaching exhaustion, Ukraine’s position is more precarious, and the country could face military collapse within six months unless it receives urgent military support.

Diplomatic optics improve, but battlefield outlook darkens

The article opens with a nod to the recent NATO summit, where European leaders expressed relief after President Donald Trump’s participation went more smoothly than feared. Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy helped repair tensions following their strained February exchange, and NATO members pledged to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP.

Yet, the author notes, diplomatic optics from the summit cannot disguise the grim reality on the battlefield. NATO’s commitment to deterrence and increased spending may not be enough to prevent Ukraine’s collapse if material support does not arrive quickly.

Ukraine running out of men, ammo—and time

According to FT, both militaries are nearing exhaustion, but Russia’s larger population gives it an edge in sustaining operations for another year. In contrast, Ukraine could reach a breaking point within six months unless it receives substantial new Western aid. Even the possibility of new Patriot systems and HIMARS artillery rockets from the US remains uncertain, as Trump remained vague about future weapons deliveries.

Importantly, troop numbers cannot be fixed by foreign allies. Ukraine has suffered heavy casualties, and its manpower reserves are dwindling.

Rachman suggests that escalating Russian missile strikes on Kyiv and other cities are not only inflicting physical damage but also damaging Ukrainian morale. That shift is reportedly evident in private appeals by Ukrainian officials for a ceasefire. Once considered defeatist, such calls are now increasingly urgent behind closed doors, the author writes.

Some optimism remains—but the clock is ticking

According to the author, some Western officials privately warn of a risk of “catastrophic failure” if Ukraine’s military is stretched past its limits and does not receive a significant surge in aid.

Despite the grim tone, Rachman notes that some analysts believe Ukraine can still hold out. These optimists argue that Russia has gained only 0.25% of Ukrainian territory in the past year, while Ukraine’s drone warfare has effectively prevented large-scale Russian advances. Others suggest that even if Russia breaches Ukrainian lines, it lacks the mechanized divisions to exploit the gains.

Still, as Rachman concludes, if the growing pessimism is justified, then the NATO summit’s feel-good atmosphere may soon fade. Even the alliance’s ever-smiling Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, may find it hard to keep smiling by year’s end.