© Lexey Swall for The New York Times
© Maciek Nabrdalik for The New York Times
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered no concessions during his first phone call with Pope Leo XIV on 5 June, while claiming Russia seeks a political and diplomatic resolution to the war in Ukraine, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW reports that the Kremlin continues to present itself as ready for “good-faith” talks while refusing to offer any concessions. During the 5 June call with Pope Leo XIV, Putin blamed Ukraine for escalating the war and stated Russia favors a peaceful resolution through “political and diplomatic means.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Putin thanked the Pope for the Vatican’s willingness to contribute to ending the war.
However, ISW notes that Putin did not offer any shift in Russia’s position. Instead, the Kremlin readout stated that any resolution must address the war’s “root causes” — a phrase the Kremlin regularly uses to shift blame to Ukraine for Russia’s invasion.
ISW highlights that Russian officials continue to define the war’s “root causes” as NATO’s supposed breach of commitments not to expand eastward and Ukraine’s alleged mistreatment of Russian-speaking minorities. These justifications, the report notes, have been part of Russia’s rhetoric since the start of the invasion.
Despite speaking of diplomacy, ISW stresses that Russia has made no moves to soften its core conditions, which amount to Ukraine’s total capitulation.
On 3 June, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev stated that Russia seeks a “swift victory” and the “complete destruction” of Ukraine’s government. ISW cites this as further evidence that Moscow remains “uninterested in good faith peace negotiations and a near-term resolution to the war that does not acquiesce to its demands.“
“Putin’s conversation with the Pope is likely part of the Kremlin’s ongoing effort to protract negotiations by falsely portraying Russia as interested in meaningful peace negotiations and improve Russia’s negotiating position by making additional battlefield gains,” ISW wrote.
© Ariana Drehsler/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Today, we will discuss the increased Russian provocations and calls for the denazification of the Baltic countries. Not wanting to be caught off guard and taking these threats seriously, these countries are already taking measures to improve their security.
Most recently, Sergey Naryshkin, head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, warned that Poland and the Baltic countries would be the first to suffer in any conflict between NATO and Russia.
He accused these nations of showing high aggressiveness and claimed they were underestimating the devastating consequences of provoking Moscow.
This statement echoed a wave of similarly hostile rhetoric from Russian state officials and media figures over the past two years.
Russian officials, including former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, have repeatedly questioned the sovereignty of the Baltic countries.
Medvedev declared that the Baltic states belong to Russia and accused NATO of harboring anti-Russian intentions. State television host Vladimir Solovyov has gone even further, stating that these countries don’t need independence and that their sovereignty is a joke.
Such statements are not isolated; they reflect a coordinated campaign to frame the Baltics as illegitimate states and NATO’s eastern flank as a battleground ripe for denazification, a chilling repeat of the Russian justification for its war on Ukraine.
The term denazification is particularly troubling, as it has historically been used by Russia as a pretext for aggression. Prior to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow framed its war aims in identical terms, alleging that Kyiv needed to be cleansed of Nazis despite Ukraine being a functioning democracy with a Jewish president.
Now, with similar language being used against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the fear is that these statements may not be mere propaganda but early signs of a more expansive regional strategy.
From a military standpoint, the Baltic states represent a significant weakness for Russia, making them a tempting target.
Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave on the Baltic Sea, is completely isolated and surrounded by NATO territory, so prominent Russian media and political figures are constantly calling for the establishment of a direct land route to Kaliningrad.
Most important is the narrow Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania, as control over it would either sever or restore Russian land access to Kaliningrad, depending on who holds it.
At the same time, since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become almost entirely encircled by NATO members, severely limiting Russian maritime maneuverability.
Russia’s Baltic Fleet, already small and aging, is no match for the combined naval power of NATO states in the region. On land, the Baltic countries host forward-deployed NATO battle groups and conduct regular military exercises to prepare for rapid mobilization.
These factors make any quick land grab by Russia, a tactic used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, far less likely to succeed here. This only seems to enrage the Russian government further, fueling its hostile campaign.
Russia’s scare tactics extend beyond mere threats. The Kremlin actively invokes the presence of Russian-speaking populations in the Baltics, around 24% in Estonia and Latvia, as a rationale for intervention, much like it did in Ukraine.
These demographics are a legacy of Soviet-era population transfers and remain a sensitive issue.
Russian state media routinely portrays these ethnic Russians as oppressed and in need of protection, laying the narrative groundwork for a potential future military action.
The Baltics are not ignoring these signals. They have witnessed firsthand how Russia used similar rhetoric to justify its invasion of Ukraine.
What was once dismissed as empty words has become a forerunner of real war. As such, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are bolstering their defenses, strengthening their ties with NATO, and preparing for the possibility of battle.
The line between information warfare and justification for full-scale war is growing thinner, and with every new threat from Russia, the sense of urgency increases.
Overall, Russia’s repeated calls for the denazification of the Baltic states and its threats of direct retaliation are viewed with the utmost seriousness by their governments.
The parallels with the lead-up to the war in Ukraine are stark, and after a series of provocations in the last months, the stakes are higher than ever.
For Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, preparing for the worst is not paranoia. It’s a necessity, and they are actively working to improve their security.
In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
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