Russian forces launched a mechanized assault into Novopavlivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, using heavy fog to bypass Ukrainian drone defenses and push into the town’s outskirts, according to ISW. Ukrainian forces responded too late to stop the incursion, which involved multiple vehicle crossings over a pontoon bridge built across the Vovcha River from Donetsk Oblast.

Russia breaches Novopavlivka under fog cover, aided by river crossing

Geolocated footage released on 14 November showed Ukrainian units striking Russian armored vehicles in northeastern Novopavlivka. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops reached the town’s northwestern outskirts during the assault. Ukrainian volunteer Serhii Sternenko reported that Russian forces entered Novopavlivka several times by using poor weather to conceal their movements. He stated that they crossed the Vovcha River with about 10 vehicles after building a pontoon bridge between Yalta and Dachne.

Sternenko said Ukrainian forces identified the movement too late but managed to strike two tanks and five infantry fighting vehicles. Russian milbloggers also described the assault as taking place in heavy fog and confirmed that Russian troops crossed the bridge twice. One milblogger noted that the second wave brought reinforcements to support the first group after they dismounted. A Russian source credited the 80th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division under the 41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District, with leading the assault.

Drone-based defenses fail in fog as Russia exploits weather vulnerability

ISW stated that Russian forces have increasingly used foggy weather for attacks across the front, including in the Pokrovsk, Velykomykhailivka, and Hulyaipole directions in eastern Ukraine. The Novopavlivka sector had been relatively quiet in recent weeks, with Russian efforts focused on seizing Pokrovsk and closing the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad pocket. Units of the 41st Combined Arms Army, responsible for Novopavlivka, have supported elements of the 2nd Combined Arms Army on Pokrovsk’s southern flank.

The 14 November attack marked a return of large-scale action to Novopavlivka and exposed a key weakness in Ukrainian defenses: the inability of drones to operate effectively in poor weather. ISW noted that Ukraine’s drone-based strategy, built from necessity, uses strike drones and loitering munitions to compensate for manpower and equipment shortages across more than 1,200 kilometers of front line. Sparsely held Ukrainian positions have made it easier for Russian forces to infiltrate. 

" Western provisions of traditional systems like artillery are key to Ukraine’s ability to build out a layered defense system that is not dependent on any one type of weapon, such that the defenses are vulnerable and exploitable," ISW says.

ISW stated that Russia’s ability to exploit this vulnerability shows that conventional weapons remain crucial in modern warfare, especially when environmental conditions negate advanced systems.